Wheat – May 25 CBOT Wheat Contract: $5.20 ¼

The wheat market saw mild gains at the start of Tuesday’s trading session, recovering slightly after a rough Monday where Chicago SRW futures fell by 13 to 15 cents. Kansas City HRW contracts closed lower by 11 to 14 cents, and MPLS spring wheat futures dropped by 8 to 10 cents. Despite improved weekly crop ratings, global supply risks and dry conditions in key regions helped support prices early today. Export inspections for wheat totaled 646,564 metric tons last week, a strong increase both weekly and annually. Planting progress for US spring wheat stood at 30%, ahead of the five-year average but below market expectations.

Corn – May 25 Corn Contract: $4.75 ¼

Corn futures edged lower again on Tuesday morning following a disappointing Monday where prices slipped by 2 to 6 cents across most contracts. Spillover weakness from wheat contributed to corn’s negative momentum. Export inspections reported 1.655 million metric tons shipped last week, a respectable figure but slightly down from the prior week. Planting data showed that 24% of the US corn crop has been planted, slightly ahead of the five-year average. Meanwhile, Taiwan and South Korean buyers booked fresh US corn cargoes, offering some underlying demand support. However, market sentiment remained cautious as planting progress continued under favorable conditions.

Soybeans – May 25 Soybeans Contract: $10.46 ¾

Soybean futures were under slight pressure early Tuesday, slipping by 4 to 6 cents after posting modest gains on Monday. Monday’s session saw nearby contracts climb by 2 to 4 cents, supported by firmer cash prices and strength in soyoil markets. Export inspections revealed that 439,341 metric tons of soybeans were shipped last week, with China taking nearly half of the volume. Planting progress was impressive, with 18% of the US soybean crop planted — significantly ahead of the average. However, trade tensions between China and the US continued to cast a shadow over demand prospects.

Key Global Developments Driving Today’s Grain Market

China’s soybean imports from Brazil are set to surge, with 40 vessels expected at Zhoushan port in April, a 48% year-on-year jump. The total volume is projected at 700,000 metric tons, signaling China’s accelerated shift away from US supplies amid escalating trade tensions.

USDA export inspections data showed strong wheat and soybean shipments last week, with wheat up 26.7% compared to the prior week and soybeans up 59.1% year-on-year. Corn shipments remained robust but dipped slightly compared to the previous week.

Weather forecasts anticipate continued dry conditions across most of Brazil for the next 15 days, potentially favoring harvest progress but creating concerns for second-crop corn yields. In Argentina, isolated wet spells are expected to delay corn and soybean harvesting in key Pampas regions.

Across the Northern Plains in the US, heavy rains and potential severe weather are forecasted through the weekend, potentially causing localized flooding and delays in corn and soybean planting.

Central and Southern Plains are seeing welcome rains, improving soil moisture and helping ease drought conditions. However, planting activity is likely to slow due to persistent wetness.

In the US Midwest, widespread storms are forecast through Friday, particularly affecting southern areas already struggling with excessive moisture. Drying trends may be limited mostly to the eastern Midwest next week.

The Delta region remains saturated, with the Mississippi River still flooding south of Memphis. Additional rainfall this week is expected to exacerbate fieldwork delays in the area.

In Europe, a wave of significant warmth is expected through the middle of the week, followed by cooler temperatures in Northern Europe. Rainfall is anticipated for eastern parts of Europe, which could benefit some drought-affected areas.

The Black Sea region continues to struggle with limited soil moisture. Some rainfall is forecast for the weekend, but concerns remain elevated for the emerging wheat and corn crops.

Russia is facing an unusual cold snap this week just as winter wheat enters critical growth stages. Analysts warn that delayed development could push yield risk into the hot summer months, stressing already tight global wheat supplies.

The Trump administration announced an emergency waiver allowing E15 gasoline sales nationwide this summer, aimed at supporting US agriculture and boosting ethanol demand. Corn markets reacted cautiously but may see longer-term support if ethanol consumption rises.

CME Group plans to launch a new Black Sea wheat futures contract in May, focusing on Romanian and Bulgarian ports. This move aims to fill the gap left by reduced trading in Russian wheat following the Ukraine invasion and could provide new risk management tools for traders.