Wheat:

The wheat complex extended its decline on Monday, with Chicago SRW May 25 futures closing down 14 ½ cents at $5.15 ½. Kansas City HRW contracts also weakened by 11 to 14 cents, while MPLS spring wheat fell by 8 to 10 cents. Despite stronger weekly export inspections — up 26.7% from the previous week — and improvements in winter wheat conditions (49% rated good to excellent), market pressure remained strong due to global supply concerns and technical weakness. Spring wheat planting in the US was at 30% complete, behind expectations but ahead of the five-year average.

Corn:

Corn futures struggled throughout Monday, weighed down by spillover pressure from the wheat market. The May 25 contract ended the session down 3 ¼ cents at $4.75 ½. Weekly export inspections were moderately supportive, showing 1.654 million metric tons shipped — 27.4% above the same week last year. Planting progress remained positive, with 24% of the US corn crop seeded, slightly ahead of the average pace. However, market sentiment leaned negative, reflecting broader weakness in grains.

Soybeans:

Unlike grains, soybean futures firmed on Monday, with May 25 contracts closing higher by 2 ¼ cents at $10.52. Cash bean prices also saw gains. While soymeal futures softened, soyoil recovered with a 60–65 point increase. Export inspections for soybeans totaled 439,341 metric tons last week, lower week-on-week but up 59.1% compared to 2024 levels. The US soybean planting pace jumped to 18%, notably ahead of the five-year average.

Key Global Developments Affecting the Grain Market

Ukraine's spring planting remains behind schedule, lagging by 17% year-over-year due to severe cold weather in early April. As of April 24, only 2 million hectares were planted, including critical crops like barley, spring wheat, and corn. Moisture levels across Ukrainian soils are favorable, but yield outcomes will heavily depend on May and June rainfall.

In addition to planting delays, Ukraine faces potential reductions in soybean sowing, expected to drop between 10–13% due to low price incentives following last year’s record harvest. On the other hand, sunflower seed sowings are increasing, projecting a 14% rise in sunflower oil production.

North America is forecasted to experience predominantly dry conditions through May, favorable for planting but adding risks for crops sensitive to moisture. Argentina’s Pampas region will also remain dry, supporting soybean and corn harvest progress. Meanwhile, Russia is bracing for wetter-than-average conditions that could impact its grain output.

Brazil is expected to capitalize further on trade tensions between the US and China by boosting soybean exports to China and soymeal exports to Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Brazil’s record soybean harvest of nearly 170 million metric tons will reinforce its position as a reliable global supplier.

Argentina's soybean harvest continues at a strong pace, reaching 14.5% completion, up significantly from 4.9% the previous week. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange kept production forecasts steady for both corn and soybeans.

The European Union revised down its grain production outlook for the 2025–26 season slightly to 280.3 million tons, citing a minor cut in soft wheat output. Nevertheless, total grain output is expected to stay well above both last season’s volume and the five-year average.

Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell by 3.4% in March compared to February, particularly due to sharp reductions in shipments to India and China. This trend could have spillover effects on global vegetable oil and oilseed markets.

In France, soft wheat conditions deteriorated slightly to 74% good/excellent. Corn planting in the country accelerated to 50% completion compared to just 24% at the same time last year. However, upcoming rains and potential floods in the west may slow down planting further.

The Philippines announced intentions to increase imports of US agricultural products, including soybeans, in an effort to negotiate lower tariffs on Filipino exports to the United States, offering potential upside for US soybean demand.

US red meat production increased by 1.1% year-on-year in March. Beef production rose by 2.1%, and pork production was slightly higher, developments that could influence domestic feed demand for corn and soymeal.

Logistical bottlenecks reemerged in the Mississippi River system as grain barge shipments fell sharply. Corn shipments dropped 17%, and soybean shipments plunged 33.5% compared to the previous week. Barge rates also declined notably, reflecting weaker demand for river transport.

Brazil’s Copersucar announced a major expansion in its US ethanol operations through an exclusivity deal with Green Plains Inc. This agreement positions its subsidiary Eco-Energy to control 15% of US ethanol trade volumes, potentially impacting corn demand tied to ethanol production.