Wheat

Chicago SRW wheat futures opened Monday trading at $5.48¾ per bushel for the May 2025 contract, showing a modest increase of 2¾ cents after a quiet end to last week. Prices across the wheat complex were mixed as Kansas City HRW started flat, and Minneapolis HRS futures nudged higher by ½ cent. Traders remain focused on lingering concerns about U.S. winter wheat crop conditions and weaker export momentum. The USDA reported weekly wheat export sales of just 76,497 metric tons, pushing total commitments to 21.628 million tons—only 97% of the annual forecast and trailing behind historical averages. Meanwhile, speculative traders trimmed short positions slightly, reflecting some improvement in market sentiment. On the international front, SovEcon raised Russia's 2025 wheat production forecast to 79.7 million tons, driven by improved winter crop survival, although persistent drought in parts of Russia tempers the overall outlook.

Corn

Corn futures for May 2025 started Monday’s session at $4.82¼ per bushel, up 3¾ cents following last week’s drop of 8 cents. Despite solid weekly export sales of 1.562 million metric tons—now covering 87% of USDA’s annual forecast—traders remain cautious amid mixed planting conditions in the U.S. Midwest and a dip in last week’s open interest. Over the weekend, cooler temperatures and scattered rains across the Northern and Central Plains added to field delays. Meanwhile, Brazil’s second corn crop is benefitting from improved rainfall in central regions, although Argentina’s harvest continues under dry conditions. The International Grains Council raised its global corn production forecast by 2 million tons for 2024/25 and bumped up 2025/26 projections by 5 million tons, citing both strong planting and higher expected yields.

Soybeans

Soybeans opened the new week with moderate strength, with May 2025 contracts up 5½ cents to $10.36½ per bushel. Last week, soybean futures lost 6¼ cents as the market digested harvest progress in Brazil and shifting global trade flows. USDA reported weekly sales of 554,806 metric tons, bringing commitments to 94% of the export forecast. China remains a focal point—its soybean imports from the U.S. jumped 12% in March compared to last year, but Brazil is set to dominate in the coming months following a record crop. China's soybean inventories are at their lowest in nearly three years, and local crushers continue to stockpile in anticipation of supply disruptions or trade tensions. The International Grains Council adjusted global 2024/25 soybean output down by 1 million tons while maintaining a steady projection of 83 million tons for 2025/26 carryout.

Key Global Developments Driving Today’s Grain Market

Weather continues to play a pivotal role across key growing regions. In the U.S., the Northern Plains remained mostly dry over the weekend, though scattered showers are forecast this week. Cooler temperatures may slow planting progress, but soil moisture is holding up well. In contrast, central and southern areas, including Texas, Missouri, and parts of the Mississippi Delta, experienced flooding rains that further delay fieldwork and threaten early spring crop schedules.

Brazil’s central regions are receiving timely rainfall to support the safrinha corn crop during pollination. While some dryness concerns lingered earlier in the month, recent weather has improved confidence in overall yield potential. In Argentina, harvest conditions remain dry, allowing continued fieldwork. However, the upcoming fronts forecast limited rainfall—insufficient to fully replenish soil moisture levels ahead of winter wheat planting in May.

Across Europe, frequent rainfall continues to aid winter wheat development and bolster soil moisture reserves. However, northeastern parts of the continent—including Poland—still require more precipitation. Delayed planting and soil stress are raising localized concerns, even as western and central regions maintain favorable outlooks for cereal and oilseed crops.

The Black Sea region began the week under continued trade and weather scrutiny. While planting conditions are currently stable, limited rainfall and above-average temperatures are accelerating crop development in ways that may affect final yields. Russia, in particular, faces soil moisture deficits. While official reports suggest 90% of winter crops are in satisfactory condition, analysts remain cautious. Recent seaborne grain exports from Russia fell 58% in March due to export quotas and logistical bottlenecks, raising concerns about supply chain continuity into the summer.

China remains in the spotlight with a dual narrative unfolding: domestic soybean stocks are tightening, while imports from Brazil are expected to accelerate. March saw just 3.5 million tons of imports—one of the lowest monthly figures in over a decade—owing to delays in Brazilian harvest logistics. However, analysts project a record 31.3 million tons of imports between April and June. China’s soybean output is expected to rise by 2.5% this year to 21.17 million tons, yet local demand and retaliatory trade policies continue to dictate short-term pricing sentiment.

In Indonesia, palm oil exports dropped 2% in March due to stronger Ramadan-related domestic demand, although the country still posted the highest March shipment volume in four years. Palm oil is now trading at a discount to soyoil, which could drive additional export growth as global buyers—including India and Pakistan—capitalize on more competitive pricing.

Back in the U.S., the biofuel complex offered modest support to corn and soybean oil. March blending credit generation rose sharply, with 1.21 billion ethanol and 573 million biodiesel credits generated, according to EPA data. This suggests stable biofuel demand and compliance activity as producers prepare for potentially expanded mandates later this year.

U.S. barge shipments of corn and soybeans surged during the week ending April 12, helped by improving river logistics. Corn shipments jumped 71% week-over-week, while soybean shipments rose nearly 47%. However, barge rates in St. Louis fell slightly, suggesting ongoing fluctuations in inland transportation costs.

The International Grains Council released a new report forecasting an increase in global grain stockpiles to 580 million tons for 2025/26, up by 2 million tons from the previous month. This includes a 1-million-ton bump in both wheat and corn stocks. Although this suggests looser supply conditions, stocks remain near decade lows, underscoring the market's vulnerability to climate and policy shocks.

Finally, domestic price pressures in Brazil contributed to a decline in local corn and soybean values. CEPEA reported that Brazilian corn prices fell 2.1% between April 10 and 16, as buyers reduced spot purchases in favor of inventory usage. Soybean prices also faced downward pressure in export hubs like Paranaguá, although increased harvest progress and export volumes continue to support overall trade liquidity.

As we move into the final stretch of April, market participants remain laser-focused on U.S. planting conditions, trade signals out of China, and export trends from Brazil and Russia. With policy risk and weather disruptions still in play, volatility is expected to persist through the week.