Wheat

Wheat markets posted a modest recovery after recent weakness. Chicago SRW futures for May 2025 closed at $5.47¾ per bushel, up 5¾ cents. Kansas City HRW rose 3 to 5 cents, while Minneapolis HRS was also up 1 to 3 cents. Concerns over U.S. crop conditions continued after USDA reported a 1% decline in the winter wheat crop rated “good to excellent,” now at 47%. Pressure is highest in Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas. In Europe, France is maintaining bullish sentiment with a year-on-year increase in soft wheat acreage to 4.61 million hectares. Meanwhile, Algeria made a large wheat purchase of at least 570,000 tons in a tender, while EU exports are trailing behind last year’s pace at 16.67 million tons.

Corn

Corn futures held their ground with the May 2025 contract ending the day at $4.84¼ per bushel, a gain of 3 cents. Rain forecasts from the Gulf to the Great Lakes are threatening early planting schedules across key growing regions. Ethanol data released midweek showed production dropping by 9,000 barrels per day, down to 1.012 million barrels/day. Stocks also drew down to 26.814 million barrels. Export sales released on Thursday were expected to land between 0.6 and 1.8 million metric tons for old crop bookings. Traders remain watchful as the U.S. approaches a holiday-shortened week, with Good Friday trading closures affecting volumes.

Soybeans

Soybean futures edged higher midweek, with the May 2025 contract closing at $10.38¾ per bushel, a gain of 2¾ cents. CmdtyView’s national average cash price rose 3 cents to $9.87¾. Soymeal was also supportive, gaining $2.40 to $3.30/ton, while soy oil rose 15 to 24 points. March NOPA crush came in below analyst expectations at 194.55 million bushels, with soy oil stocks falling to 1.498 billion pounds—down 19% from a year earlier. U.S. soybean planting remains steady at 2%, in line with the five-year average. While the U.S. increased tariffs on China overnight, market response was muted as Beijing has not announced retaliation.

Key Global Market Developments

China’s state-owned Cofco International continues expanding in Brazil, reinforcing its presence with a wave of new hires. The company is finalizing the first phase of its massive grain terminal at Santos port, expected to expand capacity from 4.5 to 14 million metric tons by next year. This expansion comes as U.S. giants ADM and Cargill reduce global operations, underlining China’s shift toward South American supply amid U.S.–China trade tensions.

In Argentina, corn and soybean harvests may slow due to continued cool weather across the Pampas. At the same time, Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintained its bumper forecast of 20.5 million tons for wheat production in 2025/26. If the government extends its current export tax reduction beyond June, the figure could rise even further. The peso’s free float has weakened the currency, boosting export competitiveness and accelerating grain shipments.

Brazil’s soybean export momentum is strong, with April projections raised to 14.5 million tons, up from 13.3 million the previous week. Soymeal exports are also expected to increase to 2.4 million tons. Rains are still awaited in Central Brazil to support the Safrinha corn crop, with the forecast indicating potential improvements in the next 10–15 days.

Ukraine is projected to produce 27.9 million tons of corn in 2025/26, up 14% from last year. Planting is underway, although temporarily paused by cold snaps. Soil moisture has improved, and continued favorable weather could support yield projections. Corn planting area is estimated at 4.2 million hectares—up nearly 8% from last season.

In Southeast Asia, Indonesia’s palm oil production is forecast to rise to 47 million tons in 2025/26. Exports may see slight growth, though domestic demand for biodiesel could limit external availability. The government is contemplating a biodiesel blending mandate above 40%, which could further reduce exports.

China’s Q1 pork output rose 1.2% year-on-year to 16 million tons, supported by increased sow numbers and slaughter weights. However, analysts warn of persistent oversupply and low profitability. Beijing has taken steps to curb production by reducing its national breeding sow target and advising producers to reduce expansion.

Weather remains a dominant theme. In North America, a shift to active storm patterns is expected by the weekend, offering relief to winter wheat but threatening spring crop planting timelines. In Argentina, lighter showers will aid harvest progress, while Central Brazil eyes potential rainfall to recover corn yield potential.

As we move toward the latter half of April, global grain markets continue to balance macroeconomic factors with weather-related developments. Traders and analysts are closely watching export data, planting progress, and government policies to gauge momentum in a market still shaped by volatility.