At the start of trading on Monday, May 2025 wheat futures in Chicago (CBOT) were priced at $5.55¾ per bushel, before dipping by 6¼ cents during the early session. Wheat markets had seen a strong close on Friday, as the May contract rallied nearly 27 cents, supported by short covering and a weaker U.S. dollar. However, sentiment reversed somewhat on Monday amid renewed weather concerns and global crop updates.

Corn futures for May 2025 opened the week at $4.90¼ per bushel, after gaining 7¼ cents on Friday. The broader trend last week showed corn prices climbing by 30 cents, driven by a softer dollar and strong export demand. Early Monday saw corn down 2½ cents, as traders weighed mixed signals from U.S. planting conditions and updated crop estimates from Ukraine.

Soybeans for May 2025 started the week at $10.42¾ per bushel, with early gains of ¾ cent after closing up 13¾ cents on Friday. Soybean futures had seen strong gains last week amid tightening U.S. supplies and heavy Chinese demand for Brazilian cargoes. Speculative positioning also contributed to momentum, though rising U.S. crush capacity and concerns about Chinese tariffs continue to temper enthusiasm.

The U.S. soybean crush surged in March to an all-time high for the month, with the National Oilseed Processors Association expected to report a figure of 197.6 million bushels on Tuesday. This would be a significant recovery from February’s low crush pace and slightly ahead of last March’s record, signaling robust domestic processing amid increased demand for soybean oil in biofuel production.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s rising biodiesel production is diverting soybean oil away from the export market. Despite record production of nearly 12 million metric tons, exports remain capped at 1.3 million tons as domestic usage continues to rise. This structural shift in Brazil’s soy oil industry has been a key factor behind elevated global vegetable oil prices in early 2025.

In China, soybean imports fell sharply to 3.5 million tons in March—a 36.8% drop compared to last year and the lowest March figure since 2008. Analysts attribute this to fears of an escalating trade war with the U.S. and shipping delays out of Brazil due to its slow harvest. Tariff hikes on U.S. agricultural imports have driven Chinese buyers to increase their reliance on Brazilian soybeans, with at least 40 cargoes booked last week for May–July delivery.

Heavy rainfall in Argentina is now disrupting soybean harvests, which are already lagging by 4 percentage points compared to the five-year average. Many fields remain inaccessible due to waterlogging, and high humidity levels are causing fears of pod rot and quality losses. Soybean sales in the country are also at a decade-low pace, with only 20% of the crop sold as of early April.

Brazil, on the other hand, has made strong progress in both soybean and corn harvests. Soybean harvest was 85.3% complete by early April. Corn planting (second crop) reached 99.1% of the targeted area. However, weather concerns persist, especially in central-western regions like Goiás, where rainfall remains below average and could impact pollination of the Safrinha corn crop.

Brazilian corn prices saw some support from increased domestic demand, especially in São Paulo, where buyers are replenishing inventories ahead of upcoming holidays. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index rose to BRL 85.57 per 60kg bag, despite an overall 2.8% decline in spot prices across the country.

In the U.S., the wheat market faces diverging prospects. Precipitation is expected in parts of the Southern Plains, which could benefit winter wheat development in areas like western Kansas. However, crop condition ratings in other parts of the world add contrast—93% of Russia’s winter wheat crop is reportedly in good condition, while French soft wheat ratings dropped 1%, now at 75% good/excellent.

Ukraine is expected to rebound with a 2025 grain harvest of 57.5 million tons, up 8% year-on-year, driven by an 18% increase in corn production to 29.2 million tons. Wheat output is forecasted at 21.5 million tons, while barley is projected at 5.3 million tons. Analysts expect Ukraine’s grain exports to rise 11% to 42.6 million tons in the 2025/26 season.

Vegetable oil markets remain tight due to lower palm oil output across Southeast Asia and shrinking soybean oil exports from Brazil. Malaysian palm oil futures dropped 1% overnight to 4,170 ringgit, though global prices remain supported by supply concerns.

In U.S. livestock news, USDA reported a 4.3% drop in weekly beef production and a 0.7% decline in pork. While not directly grain-related, lower livestock feed demand could subtly influence soymeal and corn prices going forward.

In summary, today's trading is shaped by a complex mix of weather patterns, export disruptions, and macroeconomic pressures. Ongoing developments in Argentina’s saturated fields, China’s import behavior, Brazil’s biodiesel policy, and shifting speculative positions are all key factors influencing futures pricing and global grain trade sentiment. Traders remain highly sensitive to forecast updates, government reports, and logistical developments heading into mid-April.