Market Snapshot: Friday Opening Prices – CBOT May 2025 Contracts

Wheat
Wheat opened Friday's session recovering modestly after Thursday’s losses. The May 2025 Chicago SRW wheat contract started at $5.49 per bushel, gaining 11 cents in early trade. This rebound follows a drop of 4¼ cents on Thursday, driven by a USDA report that raised U.S. ending stocks to 846 million bushels — higher than analysts had forecast — due to increased imports and lower export and seed demand. Global ending stocks rose to 260.7 million metric tons. While export data remained moderate, ongoing drought in key U.S. wheat regions and weather risks in the Black Sea continue to weigh on sentiment.

Corn
Corn opened Friday at $4.86 per bushel, climbing 3 cents from Thursday's close of $4.83. Corn futures maintained upward momentum after the USDA trimmed U.S. ending stocks by 75 million bushels to 1.465 billion, largely on raised export estimates. Sales reached 785,583 MT last week, within expectations, with South Korea, Colombia, and Japan among the key buyers. Brazil’s corn crop estimate was lifted to 124.75 million tons, while Argentina’s was revised up to 48.5 million tons. World corn stocks were slightly reduced to 287.65 million tons.

Soybeans
Soybeans entered Friday strong, with May 2025 contracts opening at $10.31¼ per bushel, up 2¼ cents from Thursday’s $10.29 close. The USDA reduced U.S. soybean ending stocks to 375 million bushels, thanks to higher crush demand. Export sales were relatively subdued at 172,324 MT, but China remained the main buyer with 141,300 MT. Brazilian soybean production was raised to 167.87 million tons, while Argentina’s was cut to 45.5 million tons. Global carryout was adjusted to 122.47 million tons, aided by higher prior carry-in.

Key Global Drivers Influencing Today’s Grain Market

China continues to intensify its trade divergence from the U.S., making major soybean purchases from Brazil. At least 40 cargoes were booked this week alone, totaling 2.4 million tons, as Chinese crushers capitalized on lower Brazilian prices and improved domestic crushing margins. This surge came amid worsening U.S.-China trade relations, with tariffs now reaching 125% on both sides, effectively halting new U.S. sales.

Brazilian soybean exports have shattered records in early 2025, reaching 88.2 million tons by early April — an unprecedented level for this stage of the season. Brazil, now the dominant global supplier, stands to gain further as Chinese demand diverts away from the U.S. Forecasts from Agroconsult place this season’s crop at 172.1 million tons, with exports expected to exceed 106 million tons.

Argentina’s soybean forecast was revised downward by 1 million tons to 45.5 million, due to unexpected rainfall and delayed harvesting. Only 2.6% of the soybean area has been harvested so far, well behind historical averages. Early frosts in western Buenos Aires province added to concerns, while farmers hold back sales due to exchange rate uncertainty and calls for tax relief.

Meanwhile, Argentina’s corn output outlook remains positive, with the Rosario Grains Exchange increasing its estimate to 48.5 million tons. Corn harvest progress stands at 23.1%, steady with last year, supported by expanded planted acreage.

A 24-hour national strike in Argentina further disrupted logistics at the Rosario port hub, one of the most critical soybean oil and meal export terminals globally. Vessel movement was entirely halted, compounding concerns over already slowed shipments due to heavy rainfall.

In the U.S., barge shipments of grain along the Mississippi River dropped significantly last week. Corn shipments fell 45% and soybeans by over 50%, affecting export logistics at a crucial time. Meanwhile, ethanol production dropped to 1.021 million barrels/day, but inventories rose to 27.034 million barrels, showing continued strength in corn demand for biofuel.

Weather remains a key market driver. Argentina faces cool, dry weather that could benefit late corn but hinder soybean development. Brazil’s Central-West and Southeast regions remain dry, threatening the Safrinha corn crop, currently estimated at 124.2 million tons. Scattered showers offer limited relief.

Across Europe and the Black Sea region, shifting weather patterns bring concerns. While Europe is set for beneficial rains, the Black Sea region may experience a return to dryness and warm temperatures, adding downside risk to winter wheat development.

In Western Australia, wheat planting may fall by 9% due to less fallow land and dryness. Wheat area is projected at 4.19 million hectares, down from 4.59 million last year. Canola and barley acreage are expected to increase, depending on May rainfall patterns.

Ukraine’s grain exports have dropped 8.8% year-on-year, totaling 33.8 million tons as of April 11. Wheat shipments are down 8%, and corn is down 12%. Spring sowing is also lagging, 16% behind last year, raising production concerns.

India’s vegetable oil imports rose to nearly 1 million tons in March, driven by a surge in soybean and palm oil. Soybean oil imports reached 355,358 tons, a notable jump from February, signaling strong demand amid Ramadan.

Finally, Brazil’s Santos Port, a major soybean and corn export hub, plans to expand its capacity by 67% by 2035. Container capacity will double within four years, enhancing Brazil’s long-term logistical capabilities and competitiveness in global grain trade.