Opening Market Snapshot – Thursday, April 10 (Chicago, May 2025 Contracts)

Wheat

Wheat markets started Thursday’s session on stronger footing, building on three days of modest gains. The May 2025 Chicago SRW wheat contract opened at $5.47 per bushel, up 4¾ cents from the prior session’s close of $5.42¼. Kansas City HRW also advanced by 7½ cents overnight, and Minneapolis HRS posted an increase of 1¾ cents. The market remains supported by speculation around short covering and growing weather concerns in the U.S. Plains and Black Sea regions. Analysts expect U.S. wheat ending stocks to be updated in today’s WASDE report, with a projected rise to 825 million bushels. Meanwhile, the EU raised its wheat production estimate to 128.1 million tons, suggesting more global availability in the coming season.

Corn

Corn opened Thursday at $4.78½ per bushel, gaining 4½ cents after a Wednesday close of $4.74. Optimism followed President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause for countries outside China, boosting risk appetite across ag markets. Despite a decline in U.S. ethanol production by 42,000 barrels per day, stockpiles increased, signaling a build-up in inventories. Export sales for the week are expected to range between 700,000 and 1.3 million metric tons, with strong interest likely ahead of WASDE figures that may cut U.S. ending stocks to 1.51 billion bushels. Meanwhile, Brazil revised its total corn production up to 127.75 million tons, thanks to better-than-expected second crop outlooks, while Argentina’s forecast was raised to 48.5 million tons.

Soybeans

Soybean markets showed strong momentum entering Thursday, opening at $10.21¼ per bushel, up 8½ cents from Wednesday’s close of $10.12¾. Soymeal also added $1.70 per ton, while soyoil slipped slightly. The market benefited from recent announcements of large private export sales, including 198,000 metric tons to undisclosed buyers. Despite this, tensions with China continue to dominate sentiment. The latest tariff hike raises Chinese duties on U.S. goods to 125%, threatening long-term demand. Analysts expect U.S. carryout to hold around 379 million bushels in today’s WASDE, with limited changes in South American supply forecasts.

Key Global Drivers Influencing Today’s Grain Market

China-U.S. trade tensions are escalating rapidly. After reciprocal hikes through early April, tariffs now total 125% on both sides. This development seriously threatens U.S. soybean exports, as China is the largest global buyer. March shipments were strong at 1.926 million tons, up 25% from February, but purchases are expected to drop off sharply after April 10 when the latest round of tariffs takes full effect.

Brazil remains dominant in the global soybean market. February–March exports hit a record 21.1 million tons, 1.9 million tons above last year’s record pace. However, 2024/25 total soybean production has been revised slightly lower to 109.3 million tons due to adverse weather in Rio Grande do Sul. Brazil’s competitiveness continues to rise as Chinese buyers shift away from U.S. supplies.

Argentina’s Rosario Exchange revised corn output upward to 48.5 million tons, while soybean estimates were lowered to 45.5 million tons due to persistent dryness. The export potential for corn improves while soybean supply pressures intensify.

A nationwide strike in Argentina on Thursday halted shipping activity in the key Rosario agro-port hub. All inbound and outbound vessel traffic is suspended for 24 hours, affecting one of the world’s most critical export pipelines for soybean oil and meal, corn, and wheat.

Russia’s winter grain outlook has improved. IKAR now projects 2025 grain output at 129.5 million tons, up from 126 million last year. Wheat alone could reach 82.5 million tons if favorable weather continues. This upgrade eases previous concerns about frost damage and sets the stage for increased global supply.

U.S. ethanol production declined to 1.021 million barrels/day last week, yet inventories rose to 27.034 million barrels. Ethanol continues to be a key demand factor for U.S. corn, and the market is watching closely for sustained production trends amid recent output volatility.

In Brazil, the Safrinha corn crop is entering its key growth phase amid serious soil moisture deficits. Production estimates stand at 124.2 million tons, slightly below last month’s forecast. Some rain is expected in the coming week, but much of the southern Central-West and Southeast regions remain abnormally dry, prompting concerns over yield potential.

The USDA sees Pakistan’s wheat imports rising sharply in 2025/26 to 1.7 million tons, up from just 100,000 tons the previous year. Domestic production is expected to fall to 27.5 million tons due to extremely dry conditions, making Pakistan a larger player in international wheat markets.

Malaysia's palm oil stocks rose 3.52% month-on-month to 1.56 million tons in March, reversing a six-month decline. Imports surged 82.5% amid Ramadan demand and favorable export conditions. Meanwhile, production rebounded by nearly 17%, supporting a broader recovery in the edible oil market.

Australia is experiencing warm and dry weather through mid-month, a development expected to benefit early planting of wheat and rapeseed. Conditions across most regions are ideal, though Queensland is the exception with expected rainfall that may slow progress.

India is rapidly gaining ground as a key rapeseed meal supplier to China, following Beijing's tariff restrictions on Canadian imports. China purchased 52,000 tons from India in the past three weeks — four times the total for all of 2024. This shift is reshaping global protein meal trade and supporting Indian domestic prices.

As markets await the USDA WASDE report later today, volatility is likely to remain high. Traders are focused on updated U.S. ending stocks, South American production estimates, and further developments in U.S.-China trade policy. The session may set the tone for price direction heading into the final weeks of April.