Wheat
Wheat markets continued to gain strength, with all major U.S. contracts closing higher. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.40 per bushel, up 3½ cents. The increase was supported by speculative activity and stabilizing crop condition assessments. According to a USDA report, 48% of the winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent, although this is significantly below last year’s 56%. Progress in heading is at 5%, in line with the five-year average. However, exports weakened, reaching 335,000 tons — a 33% drop from the previous week and 35% lower than the same period last year. Nevertheless, cumulative exports for the marketing year are 15.1% higher compared to 2024. Major buyers remain Mexico, Japan, and the Philippines.

Corn
Corn markets continued their positive trend, with the May contract closing at $4.69 per bushel — a gain of 4½ cents. The market was supported by stable exports and strong domestic cash prices, with the national average reaching $4.40½. According to the USDA, corn exports for the week ending April 3 amounted to 1.583 million tons — a 3.89% decline from the previous week but still 8.04% above last year’s level. Mexico led the list of recipients, followed by Japan, South Korea, and Colombia. U.S. corn planting reached 2% as of April 6, matching the five-year average. Geopolitical tension remains a topic, especially regarding the 24% tariff introduced by Japan, although negotiations are reportedly underway to lift it. Meanwhile, the Brazilian harvest continues smoothly, and favorable projections for the second crop are putting pressure on global prices.

Soybeans
Soybean markets posted a solid recovery, with the May contract up 9¾ cents to $9.92¾ per bushel. The increase followed a strong USDA export report, showing 804,270 tons inspected for export — a 63.5% year-over-year rise and the third-highest result for this week since 2002. China received 341,278 tons, most of which was shipped before the 34% tariff came into effect. Soymeal rose by $2.60/ton, while soybean oil fell by 15 to 29 points. Trade war tensions are still being felt, as President Trump has given China a deadline of April 9 to revoke the tariff, or else face an additional 50% increase.

Key Global Market Drivers and Events

The Miritituba port in Brazil, which handles over 10% of the country’s soybean exports, remains blocked due to Indigenous protests and poor infrastructure. Delays are reaching up to three days, with throughput reduced by approximately 12,000 tons/hour. A Supreme Court decision on land rights is expected, which could escalate the conflict.

China responded to U.S. tariffs with a sweeping 34% levy on American goods, restrictions on rare earth exports, and bans on U.S. poultry and sorghum imports. In addition, investigations into dumping and anti-competitive practices by U.S. companies have been launched.

Argentine vegetable oil producer Vicentin has halted operations at two of its main plants due to legal uncertainty, creating risks for global soybean oil and meal supplies.

Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 86.6% as of April 4, significantly ahead of the previous year and the five-year average. Despite the pace, local producers face logistical challenges and low procurement prices.

Corn prices in Brazil continue to decline, supported by weak domestic demand and improving forecasts for the second crop. The Cepea index dropped by 3.5% since the end of March.

Global soybean prices remain under pressure due to record U.S. stocks and Brazil’s aggressive harvest. U.S. inventories are at 51.99 million tons, and a 3% decline in planted area is expected.

China has announced a long-term strategy to increase domestic grain production to 1.4 trillion catty by 2027. The policy emphasizes self-sufficiency, technological innovation, and stable incomes for farmers.

Flooding in the U.S. Delta and Midwest continues to hinder planting and wheat development. Freezing temperatures have affected Kansas and parts of the Black Sea region. Argentina reported weekend frosts threatening corn and soybean crops. Brazil remains dry in key growing regions.

Malaysia saw a slight rise in palm oil prices — up 2 ringgit to 4,187. Indonesia is preparing a tariff adjustment on crude palm oil exports to alleviate the pressure from new U.S. duties.

A nationwide strike in Argentina, scheduled for April 9–10, will halt port activity during the peak soybean and corn harvest season, adding further logistical challenges.

Ukraine has maintained its wheat production forecast for 2025/26 at 23.7 million tons, with expanded planting areas and above-average yields, according to Argus. This would be the highest harvest since the 2021/22 season.

Given all these developments, market participants remain extremely sensitive to news related to diplomatic progress, exports, and weather conditions. With moderate increases in futures, market uncertainty remains a key factor driving price movements.