Wheat
May 2025 CBOT Wheat futures closed Monday at $5.36½ per bushel, gaining 7½ cents on the day. Markets began the week stronger following a string of losses, supported by positive crop condition updates and speculative positioning. Chicago SRW gained 7 to 8 cents, while Kansas City HRW added 1 to 3 cents and Minneapolis spring wheat posted 8 to 10 cent gains across most contracts. USDA’s first NASS Crop Progress report revealed winter wheat heading was at 5%, in line with the five-year average. However, condition ratings stood at 48% good/excellent — well below last year’s 56%. Export inspections showed a 33% weekly decline, with 334,888 MT shipped, mostly to Mexico, Japan, and the Philippines. Despite the setback, marketing year exports are 15.1% above the prior year.

Corn
Corn markets closed Monday with moderate strength, as May 2025 contracts ended the day at $4.64½ per bushel, up 4¼ cents. Despite macroeconomic volatility, the market found support from planting progress and a stronger cash corn average of $4.35½. Weekly export inspections totaled 1.583 MMT — a 3.89% decrease from the previous week but 8.04% higher than the same period last year. Top destinations included Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and Colombia. U.S. corn planting reached 2% as of April 6, in line with historical norms. Speculators remained cautious following trade tensions, particularly concerning Japan’s 24% retaliatory tariff, though diplomatic negotiations were reportedly underway.

Soybeans
Soybean futures closed modestly higher on Monday, with May 2025 contracts settling at $9.83 per bushel, gaining 6 cents after a heavy Friday selloff. Soymeal rose $1.80 to $5.30/ton, while soyoil dipped 69 to 98 points. Market sentiment was weighed down by escalating U.S.-China tariff conflict. President Trump issued a Tuesday deadline for China to withdraw its 34% retaliatory tariffs or face an additional 50% hike. Despite this, USDA reported strong soybean export inspections of 804,270 MT — a 63.5% year-over-year increase and third-highest total for this week since 2002. China received 341,278 MT, all shipped before the 34% tariffs were announced. Brazil's harvest progress reached 88%, slightly ahead of last year.

Key Global Market Drivers

Indigenous-led protests and crumbling infrastructure have severely disrupted soybean shipments from Brazil’s Miritituba port, a key Amazon river terminal responsible for over 10% of national grain exports. Demonstrators have blocked road access, reducing terminal throughput by an estimated 12,000 tons of soybeans per hour. Some truckers have reported delays of up to three days. While firms with pre-scheduled port access have been spared, tensions remain high, and further protest actions are anticipated pending a Supreme Court decision regarding Indigenous land rights.

China has retaliated against recent U.S. tariffs with broad countermeasures including a 34% levy on all American goods, export restrictions on rare earths, and bans on U.S. poultry and sorghum imports. Additional probes target U.S. firms for anti-dumping and antitrust violations. These sweeping actions are expected to disrupt U.S. grain export routes and depress demand, particularly for soybeans and corn. The move was described by U.S. officials as a “misstep,” though President Trump quickly threatened further tariff escalation if China fails to withdraw the retaliatory measures by April 8.

Argentina’s soybean crushing industry suffered a major blow with Vicentin — a key processor — halting operations due to ongoing bankruptcy proceedings. While temporary, the suspension could affect global soybean oil and meal supplies. Workers previously went on strike over unpaid wages. Argentina remains the world’s top supplier of these byproducts, and disruptions to processing capacity may tighten global availability.

Patria Agronegocios reported Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean harvest at 85.83%, significantly ahead of last year’s 79.36%. However, gains are being undermined by persistent logistical issues and lower global pricing. With U.S.-China relations fraying, Brazil’s dominance in the export market is expected to increase.

Brazilian corn prices continued to decline, driven by weak domestic demand and improving prospects for second-crop yields. Cepea’s benchmark index fell 3.5% from late March to April 3. Despite the decline, some areas reported improved logistics and harvesting progress. Brazilian sellers are cautious, with some holding back supplies in hopes of better pricing.

Soybean prices globally remained under pressure due to high U.S. inventories and Brazil’s accelerating harvest. U.S. stocks reached 51.99 million tons on March 1, and with planting expected to fall 3% year-on-year, supply-side bearishness has dominated. CEPEA/ESALQ indexes in Brazil declined 1% in Paranaguá and 0.5% in Paraná. Export premiums rose slightly due to strong overseas demand, but the broader market sentiment remains weak.

U.S. soybean export performance continues to disappoint. January exports fell 12% YoY to 4.93 million tons. Total outstanding sales stand at 8.88 million tons — trailing last year. Brazil, despite a slow start, is projected to export 110.2 million tons in 2024/25, further diminishing U.S. share of the global soybean trade.

China's new long-term agricultural strategy aims to raise grain production capacity to 1.4 trillion catty by 2027. The plan emphasizes self-reliance, technological innovation, and farmer income stability. If realized, the policy could significantly reduce China's grain import dependency over time, particularly for corn and soybeans.

Heavy flooding in the U.S. Delta and Midwest has hindered early planting. Cold snaps have also affected wheat development across Kansas and parts of the Black Sea region. Argentina reported weekend frosts with potential damage to corn and soybeans, while Brazil remains dry across central regions — raising concerns over corn pollination during a critical phase. Eastern Europe and southern Ukraine are also facing frost, potentially reducing wheat yields.

Palm oil markets declined sharply, with Malaysian futures falling 3.37% overnight to 4,182 ringgit/ton due to weak demand and Ramadan-related production slowdowns. Persistent high export levies and logistical constraints added further pressure, with little relief expected in the near term.

The market remains highly sensitive to headlines as macroeconomic and climatic variables continue to shift. With China’s sweeping tariffs set to begin April 10, global grain trade flows could face further upheaval. Traders are closely monitoring U.S. weather updates, Brazilian port functionality, and Beijing’s next strategic steps as the week unfolds.