Wheat
Wheat markets opened Monday with mixed signals, as May 2025 Chicago SRW Wheat stood at $5.29 per bushel following a 7-cent drop in Friday’s close. Kansas City HRW contracts ended last week 10 to 12 cents lower but gained 5¾ cents over the week, while Minneapolis spring wheat closed the week with a modest 3½ cent gain despite daily declines. The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report highlighted growing bearish sentiment among speculators, with Chicago wheat net short positions rising by nearly 19,500 contracts. Although USDA's export sales data showed wheat commitments at 21.433 MMT — 14% above last year — global competitiveness concerns persist, especially as U.S. tariffs threaten to erode international demand.

Corn
Corn opened the new week at $4.60¼ per bushel, slightly lower after a Friday close up 2¾ cents. The overall weekly gain of 7 cents came despite tariff-related uncertainty, underpinned by a modest recovery in futures and a solid national cash price average of $4.31¾. Brazil’s first crop harvest was reported 88% complete — ahead of last year's pace — while weather forecasts hinted at some planting delays in the U.S. Midwest due to flooding. CFTC data indicated speculative net long positions in corn had fallen to 56,757 contracts, though commercial participants showed stronger buying interest. Sentiment remains cautious, with traders watching for fresh export signals and ongoing weather risk.

Soybeans
Soybeans remained the most pressured grain as May 2025 contracts opened at $9.77 per bushel on Monday, after collapsing 34½ cents on Friday and losing 46 cents for the week. Futures were already reeling from China's 34% retaliatory tariffs on all U.S. goods, which exacerbated fears of lost market share. Brazil’s harvest has reached 88%, according to AgRural, and the U.S. continues to struggle with export commitments — especially to China. Friday's CFTC report showed speculators holding a net short of 29,847 contracts, while open interest surged by 22,758 contracts, suggesting fresh short positions. Soymeal and soyoil futures also weakened, reinforcing bearish sentiment across the oilseed complex.

Key Global Market Drivers and Headlines

Protests by Indigenous groups and poor infrastructure have caused major disruptions to Brazil’s soybean flow through Miritituba, a crucial Amazon river port. Up to 12,000 tons of soybeans per hour have been delayed due to road blockages, as truckers and Indigenous protesters clash over land rights. With Miritituba handling 15 million tons of soy and corn last year — more than 10% of Brazil’s total exports — the disruption is a significant logistical blow, especially with expectations of a 20% rise in volumes for 2025.

China intensified its trade war response, matching U.S. tariffs with a 34% levy on American goods, and introducing new restrictions, including rare earth export controls and poultry import bans. Additional countermeasures include suspending sorghum imports from U.S. companies and launching anti-dumping probes. These broad economic sanctions further complicate U.S. export flows and raise concerns about long-term demand destruction.

Argentina's Vicentin, once a top soybean processor, halted operations at its crushing plants amid ongoing bankruptcy proceedings. The company’s struggles highlight growing instability in Argentina’s soybean processing sector, even as the country remains the world’s top supplier of soybean meal and oil. The shutdown could temporarily disrupt the supply chain and reduce global export volumes from the region.

According to Brazil’s Patria Agronegocios, soybean harvest progress stands at 85.83% for the 2024/25 crop — well ahead of last year’s 79.36%. However, demand-driven gains are being undermined by logistical constraints and lower global pricing. China continues to dominate Brazil’s export destinations, and with U.S.-China trade relations fraying, Brazil’s prominence in global soybean supply is expected to grow further.

Corn prices across Brazil have dropped significantly due to weak domestic demand and expectations of improved yields from second-crop production. Cepea data shows a 3.5% drop in the benchmark ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index, with spot market and wholesale prices also down. Despite higher first-crop harvest volumes and improved logistics, farmers are hesitant, fearing deeper price declines.

In the soybean market, futures at CME Group have been slipping due to Brazil’s strong harvest and rising U.S. inventories, which hit 51.99 million tons on March 1. Although U.S. soybean planting is expected to drop 3% in 2025/26, international price pressure continues due to oversupply and geopolitical disruption. Brazil’s export premiums have increased modestly due to firm overseas demand, helping cushion local prices slightly.

U.S. soybean exports have slumped again, reaching just 4.93 million tons in January — down 12% year-on-year — while weekly sales volumes are now at five-year lows. China has drastically reduced its purchases, contributing to an 8.88 million ton total in outstanding sales, well below last year. Brazil’s shipments for 2023/24 also declined but are expected to rebound to 110.2 million tons for the 2024/25 cycle, positioning it to dominate global soybean trade.

China has unveiled a long-term strategic plan to boost domestic grain production by 2027, aiming to become agriculturally self-reliant. This effort is paired with goals to enhance technological competitiveness and safeguard income levels for farmers, potentially shifting import needs in the long term — particularly in corn and soy.

Weather developments have also been a key market mover. Heavy flooding in the U.S. Delta and Midwest delayed early corn and soybean planting, while cold snaps affected wheat development in Kansas and parts of the Black Sea region. In Argentina, frosts were noted over the weekend, with potential damage to corn and soybeans in southern areas. Brazil continues to face below-normal rainfall across central regions, which could impact corn pollination. Meanwhile, eastern Europe and southern Ukraine are experiencing frost events, slowing wheat development and potentially reducing yields.

Palm oil markets saw sharp corrections with Malaysian prices falling 3.37% overnight to 4,182 ringgit per ton, weighed down by weak demand and high inventory. Trade was also pressured by Ramadan-linked production cuts and continued high export levies from Indonesia and Malaysia.

China’s additional restrictions — including halting poultry and sorghum imports from several U.S. companies — signal further tightening of trade relations. With a 34% levy on all American goods effective from April 10, grain markets are bracing for extended disruption in global flows, particularly for soybeans and corn, where China plays a dominant import role.

As global tensions escalate and logistical issues compound supply concerns, markets remain highly sensitive to fresh headlines, crop progress updates, and planting intentions. Monday’s trade session opens with uncertainty dominating sentiment, and all eyes will be on updates from Brazil’s ports, U.S. planting conditions, and China’s next moves on the geopolitical chessboard.