May 2025 Chicago SRW Wheat opened Friday’s trading session at $5.30¼ per bushel and ended the previous day at $5.36, reflecting a drop of 3¼ cents. Chicago SRW futures closed Thursday mixed, with a 2 to 4 cent decline, while Kansas City HRW showed slight strength with up to 2 cents gained. Minneapolis spring wheat saw minor losses of 1 to 2 cents. The wheat market continues to feel pressure from weak competitiveness and retaliatory trade moves, notably China’s 34% tariff on U.S. goods. Still, USDA’s latest export report offered some relief, showing 339,986 metric tons sold for the week ending March 27 — a three-week high — with Ecuador and Japan leading. New crop sales added 95,242 MT. February wheat exports climbed 34.37% over January but remain lower year-over-year. European wheat exports continue to lag, down 36%, with French milling wheat at multi-month lows.

May 2025 Corn opened Friday at $4.50½ per bushel, slipping 7 cents from Thursday’s close of $4.57½. Although corn futures closed flat the day before, Friday morning saw prices fall 5 to 7 cents amid broader market risk-off sentiment. The national average cash corn price settled Thursday at $4.27¼, just slightly lower. USDA reported corn export sales of 1.173 million metric tons for the week ending March 27 — a 12.9% increase week-on-week and 23.8% more than the same period last year. South Korea, Mexico, and Japan were the top buyers. New crop sales totaled 165,000 MT. February corn exports reached 6.03 MMT, the third-highest February on record, up 12.3% year-over-year. Ethanol shipments were slightly below 2024 levels. StoneX kept Brazil’s 2024/25 estimate at 126 MMT and sees 2025/26 output climbing to 130 MMT due to strong domestic demand and low stock levels.

May 2025 Soybeans opened Friday at $10.08½ per bushel and closed Thursday at $10.11½, down 18 cents. Early trading on Friday added more pressure, with futures falling another 22 to 25 cents. The market opened Thursday with a gap down, driven by China’s retaliatory tariff announcement. USDA’s weekly export report showed old crop soybean sales of 410,172 MT, led by China at 285,900 MT (most reclassified from unknown). New crop sales remained marginal at 3,274 MT. Soymeal sales were at the lower end of expectations at 93,497 MT, while soyoil posted a 7-week low with only 13,842 MT. Census data showed February soybean exports dropped 41.17% from January and are the lowest February total since 2020. Meal exports also fell year-over-year. Brazil’s soybean production was revised slightly down to 167.5 MMT, but March exports reached a solid 16.09 MMT.

Key Global Market Drivers

China’s retaliatory tariff announcement — a 34% levy on all U.S. goods — sent shockwaves through the grain market, exacerbating weakness across futures. The move follows President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and threatens U.S. export competitiveness, particularly in Asia.

USDA’s weekly export sales data showed decent performance: corn sales hit 1.173 MMT, soybeans reached 410,172 MT, and wheat topped estimates with 339,986 MT. Still, weak figures for soybean meal and oil underscore growing pressure on oilseed demand.

U.S. Census trade data revealed February corn exports at 6.03 MMT — a bright spot — but soybean exports fell sharply to 3.07 MMT. Soymeal and soyoil exports also declined month-over-month, raising concerns about demand stability.

The USDA projects India’s wheat harvest to reach a record 115 million tons in 2025/26. However, export restrictions are likely to remain in place to curb inflation risks and protect local supply.

Mexico’s soybean imports are forecast to rise 1% in 2025/26, driven by growing domestic crush and demand for oil and feed. With only 8% of its needs met domestically, Mexico remains a vital U.S. trade partner.

Russia finalized the allocation of its 10.6 MMT wheat export quota across 24 companies, led by Grain Gates at 2.4 MMT. Its 2025 production was revised slightly up to 79.8 MMT, but risks remain for spring wheat amid dryness.

Paraguay’s soybean harvest is progressing well at 9.7 MMT. Dry weather in key growing areas is expected to support steady momentum through the remainder of the season.

Seed piracy continues to be a major concern in Brazil. A recent study showed 11% of soybean acreage used illegal seeds in 2023/24, resulting in an estimated $1.76 billion in annual losses for the sector.

Palm oil markets saw a 3.56% price drop overnight to 4,329 ringgit/ton, reflecting weaker demand despite continued export levies and logistical constraints in Malaysia and Indonesia.

Heavy rainfall is forecast for much of the U.S. through the weekend, including the Delta, Midwest, and Southern Plains. While helpful for drought conditions in some areas, the moisture will worsen flooding in others and may delay planting efforts.

In Argentina, dry weather in the Pampas favors corn harvesting, but early frosts could negatively impact yield potential. The soybean harvest is delayed due to recent rains, but the crop outlook remains stable at 48.6 MMT.

Brazil is nearing a deal to export corn-based DDG to China, a move that would open new market opportunities for Brazilian corn and ethanol sectors, according to Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro.