May 2025 Chicago SRW Wheat opened Thursday at $5.30¼ per bushel and settled the day at $5.36, down 3¼ cents. After falling early on, wheat futures clawed back some of the losses. Kansas City HRW closed slightly up by 2 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat dipped by 1 to 2 cents. The market is still absorbing the shock of sweeping U.S. tariffs that exclude only Mexico and Canada. USDA’s latest export sales report provided a surprise upside with 339,986 metric tons of wheat sold for the week ending March 27, topping expectations. Ecuador and Japan led purchases. New crop sales hit 95,242 MT, also within forecast ranges. February wheat exports were 34.37% above January but still down compared to last year. Global dynamics remain bearish, with EU wheat exports down 36% year-over-year and French milling wheat hovering near multi-month lows.

May 2025 Corn opened Thursday’s session at $4.50½ per bushel and finished at $4.57½, losing just a quarter of a cent. Despite morning weakness triggered by the U.S. “Liberation Day” tariff wave, corn managed a steady close as bullish export data and ethanol production helped offset concerns. The national average cash corn price closed at $4.27¼, down slightly. The USDA reported 1.173 million metric tons of corn sales for the week ending March 27, up 12.9% from the previous week. Key buyers included South Korea, Mexico, and Japan. New crop sales reached 165,000 MT. February corn exports stood at 6.03 MMT, 12.3% higher year-over-year. While production forecasts in Brazil were trimmed to 129.7 MMT by StoneX, dry weather in Argentina continues to support harvest progress.

May 2025 Soybeans opened at $10.08½ and dropped further to close at $10.11½, down 18 cents. Soybean futures gapped lower at the open and couldn’t recover as tariff news overshadowed modest export strength. The national cash soybean price slipped 17¾ cents to $9.54¼. Soymeal futures inched up by 40 cents to $2.40/ton, while soyoil lost 109 to 144 points. USDA reported 410,172 MT of old crop soybean sales—above last year and in the middle of estimates. China was the primary buyer, with 285,900 MT, most of which were reclassified from unknown. New crop bookings were minimal at 3,274 MT. Soybean meal sales and soyoil sales were below expectations. Census data revealed February soybean exports at 3.07 MMT, the lowest for February since 2020. Brazil's soybean production outlook was lowered slightly to 167.5 MMT, but March exports reached 16.09 MMT.

Key Global Market Drivers

President Trump’s announcement of global tariffs rattled the markets, introducing steep duties on key agricultural trading partners—34% on China, 24% on Japan, and 25% on South Korea. These tariffs, effective April 9, threaten U.S. grain and oilseed competitiveness, especially in Asia where retaliatory responses may be forthcoming.

USDA weekly export sales released Thursday were closely watched. Corn sales hit 1.173 MMT, soybeans 410,172 MT, and wheat 339,986 MT—all within or above expected ranges. However, soybean meal and oil sales came in below expectations, signaling potential pressure on the oilseed complex.

U.S. Census data showed strong February corn exports (6.03 MMT), but soybean exports sharply declined to 3.07 MMT. Soymeal and oil exports were also lower month-over-month, with meal falling 17.6% year-on-year.

In India, the USDA projects a record wheat harvest for 2025/26 at 115 million tons, driven by increased acreage and optimal weather. Nonetheless, export bans are expected to remain in place to manage inflation risks.

Mexico's USDA attaché forecast a 1% rise in soybean imports for 2025/26, driven by higher domestic crush and growing demand for oil and feed. With only 8% of soybean consumption met by domestic production, Mexico will remain a key U.S. customer.

Russia completed the final distribution of its 10.6 MMT wheat export quota among 24 firms. Grain Gates led the allocation with 2.4 MMT. Meanwhile, updated forecasts bumped Russia’s wheat production slightly to 79.8 MMT, though spring wheat output remains at risk due to dry conditions.

Paraguay’s soybean harvest remains on track at 9.7 MMT thanks to consistent weather in key growing regions. Dry conditions are expected to persist, supporting continued harvest momentum.

Seed piracy in Brazil was highlighted in a recent study, showing that 11% of soybean acreage uses illegal seeds, leading to estimated annual losses of $1.76 billion. This raises concerns for long-term investment and innovation in Brazil’s ag sector.

Palm oil markets held firm despite demand softness. Prices dipped overnight to 4490 ringgit/ton (-0.60%), but supply constraints, holiday effects in Malaysia and Indonesia, and export levies continue to underpin values.

Forecasts for North America indicate heavy rainfall in the Delta, Midwest, and Southern Plains through the weekend. This may alleviate some drought zones but raises flood risks in others, potentially delaying planting. Cooler temperatures next week will likely slow fieldwork.

The USDA weather outlook also suggests dry and harvest-friendly weather in Argentina’s Pampas and wet spells in central and northern Brazil, which could impact the second corn crop outlook.

With trade policy dominating headlines, volatility in futures is expected to persist. Analysts will keep a close eye on retaliatory measures, planting pace in North America, and export trends from key competitors like Brazil and Russia.