Wheat futures closed Monday with firm gains across all three major exchanges. May 2025 Chicago SRW Wheat ended the session at $5.37 per bushel, up 8¾ cents. Kansas City HRW Wheat rose by ¾ to 5¼ cents, and Minneapolis Spring Wheat gained 7 to 11 cents in the nearby contracts. Support stemmed from favorable precipitation forecasts across SRW and parts of the Southern Plains, along with lingering drought concerns in HRW areas.

The USDA's quarterly Grain Stocks report showed March 1 wheat stocks at 1.236 billion bushels, slightly above expectations and 147 million bushels higher year-on-year. Meanwhile, the Prospective Plantings report estimated total wheat acreage at 45.35 million acres, notably below the trade average of 46.53 million, with winter wheat area reduced by 800,000 acres from January’s estimate.

Export inspections came in at 435,644 metric tons for the week ending March 27 — down 10.2% from the prior week and 13.5% from last year. Still, marketing year-to-date shipments are running 16.4% ahead of last year, indicating resilient demand. Mexico and South Korea were the top buyers.

Corn futures posted modest gains Monday, with May 2025 Corn closing at $4.57¼ per bushel, up 4 cents. The national average cash corn price was also higher at $4.23½, up 4 cents. Although the planting report indicated larger-than-expected acreage, strong exports and tighter stocks provided support.

The USDA reported March 1 corn stocks at 8.151 billion bushels, aligning with expectations but still 201 million bushels below the same time last year. Meanwhile, corn planting intentions were pegged at 95.326 million acres, up 4.7 million acres year-over-year.

Export inspections impressed, reaching 1.644 million metric tons, nearly 5% higher than the previous week and nearly 10% above the same week in 2024. Mexico, Japan, and South Korea led demand.

Soybeans moved lower on Monday following USDA's acreage and stock data. May 2025 Soybeans settled at $10.14¾ per bushel, down 8¼ cents. The national cash price dipped to $9.56¼, and soymeal and soyoil futures also slipped, reflecting broad softness in oilseed products.

The Prospective Plantings report pegged soybean acreage at 83.495 million acres, a 3.555 million acre decline from last year but still within expectations. Stocks as of March 1 were reported at 1.91 billion bushels, slightly above forecasts and 65 million bushels higher than last year.

Weekly export inspections for soybeans totaled 793,250 MT, down 7.5% from the week before but 54.1% higher year-on-year. China remained the dominant buyer with 622,005 MT, or 78.4% of total weekly shipments.

Brazil’s harvest was 82% complete as of March 27, ahead of the 74% pace last year, according to AgRural.

Key Global Market Drivers

Romania released preliminary data showing sharp grain losses from last year’s drought. Maize output fell 31.45%, sunflower seed dropped 26.04%, and wheat was down 3.5% year-on-year. Despite the hit, Romania remains the largest EU soft wheat exporter.

EU soft wheat exports have reached 15.46 MMT so far in the 2024/25 marketing year — down 35% year-over-year — signaling weaker trade flows from Europe.

Brazil's soybean harvest reached 81.31% completion, significantly ahead of last year’s 73.62% pace, supporting record exports and ongoing demand from China, especially amid trade tensions with the U.S.

In Ukraine, spring grain planting is progressing faster than last year, with 551,800 hectares sown — up 16% year-on-year. Spring wheat and barley planting are notably ahead.

Ukraine also approved an irrigation expansion plan, aiming to support grain production of 80–100 MMT annually. The plan will gradually restore irrigated farmland to 750,000 hectares by 2050, a significant boost from just 130,000 hectares currently.

China's new agricultural plan targets the development of 90 million hectares of high-standard farmland by 2030, aiming to secure national food security amid rising climate risks. All eligible farmland will be converted to high-standard by 2035.

Trade tensions remain in focus. U.S. soybean crushers warned that retaliatory tariffs could disrupt record exports of soymeal and oil, particularly to Canada and Mexico. New reciprocal tariffs from the U.S. are set for April 2.

Brazil's corn market slowed as producers shifted focus to harvesting and second-crop sowing. Rainfall is expected this week, which is critical for safrinha corn development. Prices dropped 2.4% in Campinas, São Paulo last week amid storage concerns and lower demand.

Brazil’s soybean market saw a boost in spot activity, thanks to a stronger U.S. dollar and robust foreign demand. March exports reached 10.25 MMT, up 59.5% from February. Still, abundant supply continues to limit price gains.

Strategie Grains maintained its EU rapeseed production forecast at 19.0 MMT, up 13% year-over-year. It also raised sunflower seed output estimates to 10.6 MMT, up 26% annually. However, it warned that sunflower prices are likely overvalued and due for correction.

Malaysia’s palm oil exports rose 0.44% m/m in March, totaling 1.066 MMT, according to Intertek. Crude palm oil accounted for 16.3% of the volume.

Weather continued to influence global sentiment. In the U.S., widespread rain improved soil moisture in the Northern Plains and Midwest, though dry conditions persist in the Southern Plains. More storms are expected mid-week.

In South America, Brazil is forecast for moderate to heavy rainfall across central and southern areas — crucial for second-crop corn. Argentina enjoyed timely showers, helping immature corn and soybeans, while drier conditions support maturation and fieldwork.

In the Black Sea region, above-normal temperatures and limited rain have triggered early wheat development under poor soil moisture conditions. Showers this week may help, but major improvement is still needed.

In Australia, cotton and sorghum harvests were delayed by heavy rainfall, raising quality concerns, though moisture benefits planting preparation for wheat and canola in April.