May 2025 Chicago SRW Wheat futures opened Friday’s session at $5.28½ per bushel, down 3½ cents from the prior close. The wheat market continues to trade with a bearish bias, driven by pressure from wetter forecasts in SRW regions and persistently dry conditions in HRW zones. On Thursday, May futures settled at $5.32, down 3¼ cents. Kansas City HRW futures managed to edge up 1 to 2 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat gained 2 to 4 cents. USDA’s weekly export sales report showed 100,325 metric tons sold for 2024/25 — a modest volume but better than last week’s net reductions. Japan and Nigeria led purchases, while reductions for “unknown” destinations offset some gains. Taiwan also secured 100,000 MT of U.S. wheat, and the European Commission raised its 2025/26 soft wheat production forecast to 126.5 MMT, well above last year, weighing further on market sentiment.
May 2025 Corn futures began Friday’s trade at $4.45 per bushel, falling 5 cents from Thursday’s close of $4.50. The market remains under pressure from weak ethanol demand and softer export momentum. USDA data on Thursday revealed export sales of 1.04 MMT for the week ending March 20, down 30.5% from the previous week and 13.8% below the same period last year. Japan, Mexico, and Colombia were the top buyers, but net reductions of 494,000 MT (mostly redirected) clouded the outlook. No new crop sales were reported. Meanwhile, South Korea purchased 204,000 MT of U.S. corn. Domestic cash prices fell to $4.16, while open interest rose by over 3,500 contracts. Ongoing discussions over U.S. biofuel policy and a significant drop in ethanol production — down to 1.053 million barrels/day — continue to weigh on sentiment.
May 2025 Soybean futures opened Friday at $10.13¼ per bushel, down 3½ cents from Thursday’s close of $10.16¾, which had surged by 15¾ cents. Soybeans outperformed other commodities Thursday, with rising soymeal and soyoil prices offering support. Cash prices moved up to $9.60½, while soybean meal rose by $0.10 to $0.90/ton and soyoil gained 110 to 163 points. USDA data showed export sales of 338,469 MT for the week, a 4% decline from last week but 28.3% higher than last year. Mexico and China were top buyers. Soymeal bookings hit a 10-week low at 165,992 MT, while soyoil exports rose 30.2% to 44,493 MT. AgroConsult revised its 2024/25 Brazilian soybean crop estimate up to 172.1 MMT, citing improved yields in central states, even as Rio Grande do Sul faces challenges. Open interest rose by 2,821 contracts.
Key Global Market Drivers
Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 76.4% completion, with AgroConsult forecasting record output at 172.1 MMT. Six states are expected to post record yields. Strong production is expected to help cover farmers' 2024/25 debts and possibly increase exports to China amid persistent U.S. tariff uncertainty.
Ukraine’s grain exports for the 2024/25 season totaled 32.2 MMT, down 6% from last year. Wheat exports declined by 4.4%, corn by 10%, while barley grew 12%. March’s export volume was 3 MMT, 33% below March 2024 levels.
South Africa revised its 2025 corn crop forecast up by 4.7% to 14.6 MMT, with white corn expected to surge by 27% year-on-year. The national yield average is projected at 5.61 tons/hectare, adding optimism for southern hemisphere supply.
The proposed Black Sea grain deal between the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia may reduce logistical risks but is not expected to majorly alter global fertilizer or grain flows, according to Nutrien. Russian production remains stable near full capacity despite ongoing sanctions.
The latest USDA data confirmed weak ethanol demand. Ethanol production declined to 1.053 million barrels per day, while stocks rose 2.9% to 27.35 million barrels — adding downward pressure on corn futures.
Indonesia’s palm oil exports dropped to 1.96 MMT in January, while domestic consumption for biodiesel also decreased. Stocks rose to 2.936 MMT, signaling sluggish edible oil demand in Southeast Asia.
Indonesia raised its crude palm oil reference price for April to $961.54/ton, maintaining a $124 export tax and a 7.5% levy. This development may influence vegetable oil competitiveness, especially in relation to soybean oil.
Malaysian palm oil futures climbed 108 ringgit overnight, settling at 4,420 ringgit (+2.5%), driven by strong demand and limited rainfall across key growing regions.
China’s Sinograin advanced with the auction of 160,000 MT of imported soybeans to address tight stocks. However, analysts caution that the expected surge in Brazilian Q2 arrivals may limit price rebounds.
Heavy rainfall of 50–70mm is expected over Argentina’s Pampas, potentially delaying harvests. In Brazil, localized rainfall in Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul will improve soil moisture for the second corn crop.
Cooler April forecasts across North America have moderated. While this benefits most crops, the Central and Southern Plains remain warm and dry — a threat for winter wheat. A weekend storm could deliver moisture, but southwestern areas may again see minimal benefit.
Drought in Brazil and Ethiopia is raising concerns for coffee and sugar crops, while Southeast Asia’s palm oil regions enjoy stable rainfall. However, flooding risks remain in eastern Kalimantan.