Wheat futures saw mixed performance on Thursday. May 2025 Chicago SRW Wheat closed at $5.32 per bushel, down 3¼ cents. Kansas City HRW futures reversed early losses to close up 1 to 2 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat ended up 2 to 4 cents. The wheat market remains under pressure due to improved weather forecasts in SRW-producing areas and relatively dry conditions in HRW zones. Export sales data from the USDA reported 100,325 MT sold for 2024/25 — better than last week’s net reductions but still modest. Japan led purchases, followed by Nigeria, though there were notable net reductions for unspecified destinations. Taiwan also secured 100,000 MT of U.S. wheat. Meanwhile, the EU forecasted soft wheat production at 126.5 MMT for 2025/26, well above last year’s output, contributing to bearish sentiment.

Corn futures settled modestly lower on Thursday. May 2025 Corn closed at $4.50 per bushel, down 1¼ cents, with domestic cash prices slipping to $4.16. Despite the decline, losses were pared from earlier in the session. USDA data showed export sales of 1.04 MMT for the week ending March 20 — down 30.5% from the previous week and 13.8% below the same period last year. Japan, Mexico, and Colombia were the top buyers, although net reductions of 494,000 MT reflected logistical reshuffling. New crop sales were reported at zero. Additionally, a South Korean importer purchased 204,000 MT of corn overnight. Ethanol-related data continued to weigh on sentiment after the EIA reported a significant drop in production to 1.053 million barrels per day and a rise in stocks to 27.35 million barrels.

Soybean futures outperformed other commodities on Thursday. May 2025 Soybeans closed at $10.16¾ per bushel, up 15¾ cents. Cash soybean prices climbed to $9.60½, while soymeal and soyoil also surged — up by $0.10 to $0.90/ton and 110 to 163 points, respectively. Weekly USDA export sales showed 338,469 MT sold for the 2024/25 season, a 4% drop from last week but still 28.3% above last year. Mexico and China led purchases, though net reductions for “unknown” destinations persisted. Soybean meal sales reached a 10-week low at 165,992 MT, while soyoil sales rose 30.2% week-over-week to 44,493 MT. Brazil’s AgroConsult raised its 2024/25 soybean production estimate to 172.1 MMT following a crop tour, further boosting market optimism.

Key Global Drivers and Market Headlines

Brazil’s soybean harvest is now 76.4% complete and on track for a record year, with production projected at 169.3 MMT — slightly above USDA’s current forecast. Harvest momentum remains strong, though Rio Grande do Sul continues to show yield concerns due to dry weather.

Ukraine’s total grain exports for the 2024/25 season have reached 32.2 MMT, down 6% from last year. Wheat and corn shipments fell by 4.4% and 10%, respectively, while barley exports rose by 12%. March export volume alone was just 3 MMT, a third lower than last year.

South Africa has revised its 2025 corn crop estimate upward by 4.7% to 14.6 MMT. White corn output is expected to jump 27% year-on-year, while yellow corn production is forecast to rise by 1%. The average yield is set at 5.61 tons/hectare.

The proposed Black Sea grain shipping deal between Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. is not expected to significantly alter fertilizer or grain flows, according to Nutrien. Despite the ceasefire efforts, geopolitical instability and trade restrictions continue to limit potential gains in exports.

Ethanol demand in the U.S. remains soft. The Department of Energy reported a 2.9% increase in ethanol stocks to 27.35 million barrels, with production falling to 1.053 million barrels per day — below analyst expectations, adding bearish pressure to corn.

Indonesia's palm oil exports fell to 1.96 MMT in January, down from December’s 2.06 MMT. Production and domestic consumption also declined, while stockpiles increased to 2.936 MMT. This signals a slowdown in Southeast Asia's edible oil market.

Indonesia raised its April crude palm oil reference price to $961.54 per ton, maintaining an export tax of $124/ton and a 7.5% levy — a development that could affect global vegetable oil price dynamics in competition with soybean oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices rose 54 ringgit (+1.27%) overnight to reach 4313 ringgit, fueled by firm demand and limited rainfall risks in key growing regions.

China’s Sinograin proceeded with its auction of 160,000 MT of imported soybeans to relieve domestic tightness. However, analysts warn that Q2’s incoming surge of Brazilian soybeans may cap any price recovery following the auction.

Weather headlines suggest that Argentina’s Pampas will receive 50–70mm of rain over the next five days, potentially delaying early harvests. In Brazil, localized rains in Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul are helping improve soil moisture for the second corn crop.

In North America, cold April forecasts have moderated. While this benefits most crops, the Central and Southern Plains remain dry and warm, raising risks for winter wheat. A larger system this weekend may bring showers and storms, but southwest areas could miss out again.

Globally, persistent dryness in Ethiopia and Brazil is raising concerns for coffee and sugar production, while Southeast Asia continues to benefit from stable rainfall in palm oil-producing regions — though eastern Kalimantan still faces flood risks.