Wheat futures fell across all major U.S. exchanges on Tuesday. May 2025 Chicago SRW Wheat closed at $5.43¼ per bushel, down 5 cents on the day. Kansas City HRW contracts dropped 8 to 9 cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat closed 3 to 5 cents lower. Weighing on the market were easing Black Sea tensions, improved U.S. crop conditions in Kansas and Texas, and strong competition from Russia. SovEcon trimmed its 2024/25 Russian wheat export forecast by 1.5 MMT to 40.7 MMT but raised its 2025/26 outlook to 39.1 MMT. EU soft wheat exports have lagged significantly year-on-year, totaling just 15.46 MMT since July 1 versus 23.75 MMT last year. Meanwhile, Japan issued a tender for nearly 120,000 MT of wheat, including 59,751 MT from the U.S.

Corn ended Tuesday’s session under pressure, tracking wheat losses and responding to calming geopolitical risks in the Black Sea. May 2025 Corn closed at $4.57¾ per bushel, down 6¾ cents. National average cash corn prices also slipped 6½ cents to $4.23¾. Despite this, export inspections for the week remained strong at 1.463 million metric tons, up 16.6% year-over-year, with Mexico, Japan, and South Korea leading. In Brazil, the summer corn harvest was 77% complete, and AgRural raised its total corn forecast to 121.8 MMT. Early planting continues in the U.S., with Louisiana at 65% and Texas at 45%. Markets also await Wednesday’s EIA ethanol report, with steady production expected. A Bloomberg analyst survey pegs U.S. corn acreage at 94.4 million acres ahead of Monday’s USDA Prospective Plantings report.

Soybeans traded mixed but ended lower in the front months. May 2025 Soybeans closed at $10.01¾ per bushel, down 5½ cents. The national cash price declined 5¼ cents to $9.41. Soymeal futures were steady to down $2.70/ton, while soyoil futures rose 15 to 34 points, providing slight offsetting support. Export inspections were strong, totaling 822,214 metric tons, with China accounting for nearly half at 405,000 MT. Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 77% completion, and AgRural maintained its estimate at 165.9 MMT, despite yield issues in Rio Grande do Sul. Meanwhile, EU soybean imports for the season reached 9.84 MMT, up from 9.23 MMT last year. Traders are closely eyeing Monday’s planting intentions report, with expectations averaging 83.8 million acres for soybeans.

Key Global Drivers and Market Headlines

Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the U.S. and Russia in Saudi Arabia focused on reviving safe navigation in the Black Sea. Both parties agreed in principle to maritime protections akin to the former Black Sea Grain Initiative and to avoid targeting energy facilities. This development, if successful, could ease logistic constraints and insurance burdens on Black Sea exports.

The USDA’s weekly crop progress report showed improvement in Kansas winter wheat to 49% good/excellent and in Texas to 31%, but a sharp drop in Oklahoma to 37% amid high winds, wildfires, and worsening drought. Nationally, 34% of the U.S. winter wheat crop is under drought — a jump from 27% last week.

In Europe, the MARS unit of the European Commission noted that crop conditions are generally better than last year. Spring sowing and field operations have benefited from favorable weather, but irreversible damage has been reported in Romania, Bulgaria, and eastern Ukraine due to rainfall deficits.

The Russian wheat export market gained traction as prices rose to $252–$256/ton FOB for 12.5% protein wheat. Iran’s recent purchase of approximately 500,000 MT and Turkey’s return to the market under a flour export scheme supported demand. However, March wheat exports from Russia are projected to be just 1.6 MMT, sharply down from 4.8 MMT last year.

Brazil continues to face delayed corn harvesting in the Pampas due to persistent rain, while April forecasts call for above-average heat and dryness in Goiás and Central Brazil. This raises significant risk for the second corn crop, with analysts flagging Goiás as the most vulnerable region.

Export performance from the U.S. remained strong. The USDA reported 1.463 MMT of corn, 822k MT of soybeans, and 485k MT of wheat inspected for export during the week ending March 20, showing resilience in demand despite market pressures.

In India, severe thunderstorms and hailstorms disrupted wheat harvesting across Madhya Pradesh and Bihar. The Indian Meteorological Department warned that damage to yields and agricultural infrastructure could be substantial, heightening concerns about food security and market supply.

The U.S. egg shortage worsened amid ongoing avian flu outbreaks. Imports from Brazil doubled in February, and the Trump administration is considering allowing eggs from broiler chickens for food manufacturing use. This would shift feed demand, particularly affecting corn and soymeal consumption patterns.

AgRural reported that Brazil’s soybean harvest is progressing ahead of schedule, hitting 77%, up from 70% last week. While output issues persist in southern regions, Mato Grosso is delivering stronger yields, helping stabilize overall production. Export premiums remain firm, supporting prices.

Mexico’s grain market outlook has shifted. Corn and sorghum output are expected to rise due to improved economics and policy support. Conversely, wheat production is projected to decline in drought-affected Sonora and Sinaloa, boosting import needs for wheat and rice.

China remains an influential force in soybean trade. Sinograin is set to auction 160,000 MT of imported soybeans this week to alleviate domestic tightness caused by delayed Brazilian shipments. However, this influx may coincide with increased Q2 arrivals, potentially capping price recovery.

Finally, April weather forecasts show above-average temperatures across Central Brazil and cooler conditions in Argentina. While overall rainfall is expected to be near normal, dry patches in Central and Eastern Brazil may further stress the development of the second corn crop, with additional implications for sugarcane and coffee.