Wheat futures began the Wednesday session with slight losses after rallying the previous day. The March 2025 CBOT Wheat contract opened at $6.04 ¾ per bushel, down 5 ¼ cents, as traders reacted to weaker U.S. export inspections and a general pullback in global demand. Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis HRS wheat also saw early declines, reflecting a lack of strong buying interest despite recent tenders from Saudi Arabia and Japan.

Corn futures showed stability in early trading, holding above the key $5.00 mark. The March 2025 Corn contract opened at $5.02 per bushel, unchanged from Tuesday’s close. U.S. export inspections showed strong demand, with Mexico, Japan, and South Korea leading purchases. However, weaker expectations for Brazil’s February exports and uncertainty in global trade negotiations are keeping prices in check.

Soybeans started the day marginally lower, with the March 2025 Soybeans contract opening at $10.38 ½ per bushel, down ¼ cent. U.S. soybean export inspections fell to their lowest level for this time of year since 2005, while Brazilian export estimates were revised lower. The U.S. soybean crush volume dipped slightly in January but remains near record highs, driven by robust soy oil demand.

Key Global Developments Impacting the Grain Market

The French poultry industry reported a significant recovery in production due to a successful bird flu vaccination campaign. Output increased by 12.1% year-over-year, helping restore supply to pre-crisis levels. However, trade restrictions from some countries on French poultry products remain a concern, potentially impacting global feed demand.

U.S. wheat export inspections fell sharply last week, with just 249,812 metric tons shipped, down 56% from the previous week. Mexico and South Korea remained the top buyers, but overall demand has weakened. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia secured 920,000 metric tons of wheat in a recent tender, and Japan issued a new tender for U.S., Canadian, and Australian wheat.

Corn exports from the U.S. remained strong, with 1.611 million metric tons inspected last week. Mexico was the top destination, followed by Japan and Vietnam. Brazil’s February corn exports are projected at 1.28 million metric tons, slightly below prior estimates. Taiwan purchased 65,000 metric tons of corn in an overnight tender, likely sourced from the U.S.

Soybean export inspections declined to just 720,332 metric tons, a 44% drop from last year. China remains the primary buyer, but shipments were down significantly. Brazil’s February soybean exports are now projected at 9.72 million metric tons, a reduction from previous estimates.

Weather concerns persist across major agricultural regions. The U.S. is experiencing extreme cold, with temperatures in key winter wheat areas dropping below -23°C, though adequate snow cover is providing protection. Argentina is seeing above-normal temperatures, while Brazil’s central and southeastern regions remain dry. Wet conditions in southern Brazil could delay corn and soybean planting.

The U.S. National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported a January soybean crush of 200.38 million bushels, down 3% from the previous month but still the second-largest on record. Soy oil stocks rose to 1.27 billion pounds, though they remain 15% lower year-over-year.

Brazil’s government has decided to keep the biodiesel blend in diesel at 14% instead of raising it to 15%, citing concerns over food prices. This decision is expected to reduce demand for soy oil in the near term.

Thailand is exploring ways to increase agricultural imports from the U.S. to avoid potential trade tariffs. The country is in discussions to lower import taxes on U.S. corn and soybean meal, which could shift trade flows away from Brazil.

Egypt is set to receive 2.7 million metric tons of wheat through April, with most shipments originating from Russia. However, market uncertainty persists due to recent changes in Egypt’s wheat import system, making it harder to track global trade flows.

Argentina’s soybean harvest has been significantly impacted by drought, with projected production now well below initial estimates. With 55% of the crop in full grain filling, further yield losses could occur without additional rainfall.

Grain markets remain volatile as traders assess shifting export trends, weather risks, and policy changes that could reshape global supply chains in the months ahead.