The EUR/USD currency pair declined to 1.0346, while the price of US WTI crude oil rose to $74.25 per barrel.

Oil prices increased on Tuesday, reaching their highest levels since October. The prices reflect new economic stimuli from China, risks of a global economic downturn, supply disruptions in conflict zones, and the unpredictability of the new U.S. administration. Typically, Trump has been a supporter of oil companies, but as a populist move, he also advocates for low oil prices to appeal to his voter base. At the same time, his supporters among farmers favor high oil prices to bolster corn and soybean production. It is impossible to satisfy everyone, as not every source of revenue aligns with individual interests. Market participants are anticipating key data this week, including the U.S. employment report for December.

Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago rose by 2 cents to $5.42 1/2 per bushel. Wheat futures in Chicago increased, while in Paris, they declined. In Kansas, 47% of winter wheat crops are reported to be in good to excellent condition (compared to 56% in December and 43% in 2023), while in Oklahoma, the figure is 45% (-3% compared to early December). Since the beginning of the season, EU wheat exports have reached 11.16 million tons, down 33.93% from the previous season. A Bulgarian port currently has a vessel loading 33,000 tons of wheat for export. Jordan has purchased 60,000 tons of hard milling wheat for delivery in May. Wheat prices in India have reached new highs. The chronic wheat shortage in the country has persisted for several years since exports were halted. Despite this, production remains insufficient to sustain the population, and internal reserves have been steadily decreasing. In 2025, India will likely need to resort to significant imports to keep wheat prices at manageable levels, despite efforts to boost domestic production.

Yesterday, CBOT March corn futures increased by 1/4 cent to $4.58 per bushel. Corn futures increased in both Chicago and Paris. The USDA reported a private export sale of 110,000 tons of corn to Colombia. In November, the U.S. exported 4.704 million tons of corn, a six-year high (+16.22% compared to November 2023), and 13.03 million tons in the first quarter of the season. Exports of DDGS totaled 946,804 tons, a three-year high, while ethanol exports reached 187.6 million gallons, setting a new record. Algeria is seeking to purchase 240,000 tons of feed corn with delivery in late January, with origins including Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and the EU.

Yesterday, Chicago March soybean futures fell by 1/2 cent to $9.97 1/4 per bushel. Soybeans and soymeal futures in Chicago declined, while soyoil futures rose. In Paris, rapeseed futures increased, whereas canola futures in Canada decreased. In November, the U.S. exported 9.876 million tons of soybeans, a three-year monthly high. First-quarter season exports totaled 22.3 million tons. Soybean meal exports set a new record of 1.55 million tons, and soyoil exports reached 58,510 tons, the highest level since April 2022. Forecasts include rainfall in South America, including Argentina, in the coming week. This could shift market sentiment and lead to further price drops if significant rainfall occurs.

The new U.S. president is likely to soften his initial plans to introduce a universal import tariff on all goods entering the country. Previously, it was announced that the tariff would range between 10% and 20%. Trump's team is now considering an alternative plan where tariffs would apply only to critical sectors such as defense, medical devices, and energy.