The EUR/USD currency pair declined to 1.0535.

The price of US WTI crude oil fell to $68.59 per barrel.

Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday as concerns over the implications of the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad subsided. However, the market found support in Chinese leaders' pledge to increase fiscal stimulus, which could boost demand from the world's largest crude oil importer. The market is also focused on the potential for the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week, a move that could stimulate demand for crude in the world's largest economy.

The central bank is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its meeting on December 17-18, but investors are awaiting U.S. inflation data, set to be released this week, which could influence that forecast. Against this backdrop, the decline in oil prices is limited by positive expectations for the Chinese economy following reports that Beijing plans to ease monetary policy next year. This would mark the first policy easing in about 14 years and aims to stimulate economic growth in the world's largest oil importer.

Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago increased by 3 cents to $5.61 3/4 per bushel. Wheat prices increased in both Chicago and Paris. Japan announced a tender to purchase 112,889 tons of wheat from the United States, Canada, and Australia. Since the start of the season, EU soft wheat exports have reached 10.24 million tons (compared to 14.41 million tons a year earlier). SovEcon estimates Russia's November wheat exports at 4.1 million tons (down from 5.6 million tons in October). Barley exports stood at 200,000 tons (unchanged), and corn exports reached 300,000 tons (up from 250,000 tons). Rusagrotrans estimates November wheat exports at 4.6 million tons and forecasts December exports at 3.4–3.5 million tons and January exports at 2.5–3 million tons.

Yesterday, CBOT March corn futures rose by 7 1/4 cents to $4.49 per bushel, with corn prices also increasing in Chicago and Paris. Anec forecasts Brazil’s December corn exports at 3.96 million tons (up from a previous estimate of 3.59 million tons). Since the start of the season, EU corn imports have totaled 8.83 million tons (+11% year-on-year). China's corn production is expected to reach 293.84 million tons (-1% compared to the November forecast).

Chicago January soybean futures have gone up by 4 3/4 cents to $9.94 3/4 per bushel. Soybean and soymeal futures increased in Chicago, while soyoil futures decreased. Rapeseed futures in Paris and canola futures in Canada also declined. The USDA lowered the average U.S. farm price for soybeans by $0.6 per bushel to $10.20 per bushel. Anec projects Brazil’s December soybean exports at 1.57 million tons (+0.33 million tons). In November, China imported 7.15 million tons of soybeans, bringing the 2024 total to 97.09 million tons (+9.4% year-on-year). According to Secex, Brazil's November soybean exports continued to decline to 2.55 million tons (compared to 5.2 million tons a year earlier). Ukraine’s November rapeseed exports totaled 291,000 tons (-31% compared to October). Between July and November, exports reached 2.6 million tons, with 79% of the export potential exhausted. The EU was the largest buyer, accounting for 2.43 million tons (+13%).

Yesterday, the USDA released data from its December report, prompting slight gains in Chicago markets. Key points include:

• Wheat: In 2024/25, global wheat production is expected to reach 792.95 million tons (down from 794.73 million tons in November and 791.24 million tons in 2023/24). EU production is projected at 121.3 million tons (down from 122.6 and 135.1). Global consumption is forecasted at 802.47 million tons (803.41 and 797.86), with ending stocks at 257.88 million tons (257.57 and 267.41). Ukraine's wheat production is nearly on par with last season, suggesting exports will not decline as sharply as anticipated earlier.

• Corn: Global production is projected at 1,217.89 million tons (1,219.40 and 1,229.63), consumption at 1,237.66 million tons (1,229.48 and 1,218.07), and ending stocks at 296.44 million tons (304.14 and 316.22). U.S. stocks are expected to fall to 44.15 million tons (49.23 and 44.72), with China's at 204.27 million tons (206.27 and 211.29). Significant stock declines are driven by reductions in the U.S. and China.

• Soybeans: Production is forecasted at 427.14 million tons (425.40 and 394.87), with ending stocks at 131.87 million tons (131.74 and 112.16). Argentina's soybean production is expected to reach 52 million tons (up from 51 and 48.21). Changes in soy estimates were minimal.

Markets remain slightly unsettled, driven by strong demand for all grains and uneven supply. This has created a mild upward trend in prices. In recent years, Brazil has flooded markets with corn and soybeans, a pattern expected to continue in early 2025, with a likely excellent soybean production and a strong start for the first corn production. Argentina is also poised for strong productions of both crops. Overall, South America will enter markets with massive quantities of corn and soybeans. Combined with strong US productions, this abundance is a limiting factor for price hikes. Significant price rallies are unlikely, and it is advisable to sell at current levels. If prices rise further, continue selling.