The EUR/USD currency pair declined to 1.0493, while the price of US WTI light crude oil rose to $68.10 per barrel.

Oil prices increased on Monday, supported by positive data on factory activity in China, the world's second-largest consumer of "black gold." This brings some relief, suggesting that China's demand for oil might remain elevated. A private-sector survey revealed that in November, factory activity in China expanded at its fastest pace in five months, boosting optimism among Chinese businesses. This comes as newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump intensifies his trade threats.

OPEC+ postponed its meeting from December 1 to December 5 and is reportedly discussing delaying the planned oil production increase scheduled to begin in January, according to insider sources cited by Reuters last week.

Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago fell by 3/4 cent to $5.47 1/2 per bushel. Wheat futures declined in Chicago but rose in Paris. During the week ending November 28, 2024, U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 296,106 tons (compared to 364,783 tons the previous week and 188,298 tons a year earlier). Season-to-date inspections amount to 10.99 million tons, up from 8.34 million tons a year ago.

Abares raised its 2024/25 Australian wheat production forecast by 0.1 million tons to 31.9 million tons. According to ICC projections, Russia's 2025 grain production will reach 134.2 million tons, a 7.7% increase compared to 2024, with wheat accounting for 85.7 million tons (up from 84.7 million tons). The improvement is attributed to recent rainfall and relatively mild temperatures. Russia confirmed an export quota of 11 million tons of wheat for February 15–June 30, 2025, during which barley and corn exports will not be permitted. SovEcon reported that Russian wheat exports in September reached 4.1 million tons. Meanwhile, India announced plans to sell 2.5 million tons of wheat from state reserves to the domestic market, significantly lowering local wheat prices.

Ongoing rains in Australia are starting to seriously impact the quality of the new wheat crop. Harvesting has commenced in both Australia and Argentina, with the first shipments now available for export, easing concerns over weaker productions in the Black Sea region and the EU. Argentina is reportedly close to finalizing a wheat export deal with China, marking the first such agreement in decades.

Yesterday, CBOT March corn futures fell by 1/2 cent to $4.32 1/2 per bushel. Corn futures declined in both Chicago and Paris. In October, 11.7 million tons of U.S. corn were used for ethanol production, a 0.4% decrease from September but a 3% increase compared to October 2023. Weekly U.S. corn export inspections reached 935,859 tons (compared to 1,008,867 tons the previous week and 1,176,452 tons a year earlier), bringing the season total to 11.07 million tons, up from 8.47 million tons. South America's corn production is estimated at 189 million tons, compared to 177 million tons the previous year.

Chicago January soybean futures dropped by 4 1/4 cents to $9.85 1/2 per bushel. The soybean complex declined in Chicago, while rapeseed futures in Paris and canola futures in Canada rose. The USDA announced a private export sale of 134,000 tons of soybeans to China. In October, U.S. soybean processing hit a record 5.87 million tons, surpassing market expectations of 5.74 million tons and increasing by 15.7% month-over-month and 7.15% year-over-year. U.S. soybean oil stocks rose to 1.485 billion pounds, up 1.1% on both a monthly and yearly basis. Weekly U.S. soybean export sales totaled 2,088,361 tons, bringing the season total to 21.79 million tons, up from 18.76 million tons last year.

AgRural reported that 91% of planned soybean planting for Brazil's 2024/25 crop is complete, compared to 85% a year ago. The soybean planting schedule is critical for the second corn crop, as soybeans are sown entirely during the wet season, while early planting can begin during the dry season before the rains. Starting January 1, 2025, Indonesia will transition to B40 biodiesel from the current B35, increasing palm oil demand by 1.5–1.7 million tons. Celeres forecasts Brazil's 2024/25 soybean crop at 170.7 million tons, with South America's potential soybean production estimated at 253 million tons, up from 219 million tons in 2023/24—a significant increase of 34 million tons.