The EUR/USD currency pair dropped to 1.0555. The price of US WTI light crude oil was not traded yesterday.

Brent crude oil prices declined on Thursday following an unexpected surge in U.S. gasoline inventories. Gasoline stocks in the U.S. increased by 3.3 million barrels during the week ending November 22, the EIA reported on Wednesday. This surprised analysts who had anticipated a decrease ahead of holiday travel. Meanwhile, investors are looking forward to the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), scheduled for December 1. Anonymous sources revealed on Tuesday that cartel members have been discussing the possibility of further postponing the planned increase in oil production, initially set to start in January. Against this backdrop, the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which began on Wednesday, has eased concerns that the conflict could disrupt the supply of "black gold" from the region.

Yesterday, the Chicago Board of Trade was closed, which led to minimal changes in Paris as well. Markets are making their penultimate moves before the year's end. This time, weather conditions have turned favorable for most production regions worldwide. Rainfall has returned to many areas, improving crop conditions. However, drought remains a concern in Ukraine and Russia. In Australia, recent widespread rains have negatively impacted the quality of the new wheat production.

The major shift in markets over the past months has been the impact of biofuels on oils, oilseeds, and corn. Long-standing incentives to increase biofuel consumption in the EU, the United States, Brazil, Indonesia, and elsewhere are finally yielding results in an otherwise challenging market. Without these changes, agriculture would have seen little optimism in the past 1–2 years and the coming years. To some extent, the limited rainfall in key production regions has contributed to this trend. Conversely, other areas, such as the U.S. and Brazil, have achieved record productions.

The strength of the global economy, particularly in the Western world, continues to sustain stable consumption levels. China remains a significant consumer, but its government's efforts to reduce dependence on soy and soymeal are showing results. Livestock farming increasingly relies on food waste, a variety of grains, and other seemingly minor inputs, which together create a substantial impact. Currently, there is no other major grain consumer globally exerting a strong influence on markets. India somewhat replaces China, primarily in the oilseed segment, but lacks the capacity for more significant influence.

According to SagyP's forecast, Argentina's soybean acreage for the 2024/25 season is expected to reach 17.8 million hectares (compared to 16.6 million in 2023/24), with 36% of the planned areas already sown. Wheat production is forecasted at 15.9 million tons (-10.7% compared to 2023/24). The new wheat production will be the fourth largest in the past 15 years. Wheat acreage is projected at 6.3 million hectares (up from 5.9 million). Corn acreage is expected to be 9.4 million hectares (down from 11.1 million), with 45% of the planned areas already sown.

North African countries are actively purchasing primarily wheat and, to a lesser extent, corn and barley. As usual, grain crops in these countries suffer from drought, leading to heavy reliance on imports—this year being no exception.

Russia has reduced wheat production to just over 80 million tons, with Russian analysts projecting a similar production for 2025.

In early 2025, leadership changes in the United States are expected, bringing anticipated shifts. While the specifics remain uncertain, adjustments are inevitable. Our goal is to adapt to these new conditions and maintain profitable agricultural business operations!