Over the past week, the EUR/USD currency pair fell by 0.0178 to 1.0540. The price of US WTI light crude oil dropped by $3.36 per barrel to $67.02 per barrel.

Oil prices declined on Friday due to signs that demand in China, the world's largest importer of crude oil, continues to struggle amid an uneven economic recovery. Concerns persist over increased supplies from the United States and OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies), combined with challenges to China's economic recovery. In October, Chinese refineries processed 4.6% less crude oil compared to the same period last year, marking the seventh consecutive month of year-on-year decline. 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for demand growth in 2024 by 60,000 barrels per day to 920,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, the 2025 demand growth forecast remains largely unchanged at 990,000 barrels per day. 

In the United States, crude oil inventories increased by 2.1 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday, significantly exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 750,000-barrel rise.

Over the previous week, CBOT December SRW wheat futures fell by 36 cents to close at $5.36 per bushel.

For the past week, Chicago December corn futures declined by 7 cents to close at $4.24 per bushel.

Throughout the past week, January soybean futures in Chicago dropped by 31 3/4 cents to close at $9.98 1/2 per bushel.

Accumulated US export sales for the week ending November 07.

*Source: USDA

Weather: 

Over the past week, the weather in the United States was warm and dry. In Europe, it was cool with rain. Ukraine and Russia remained dry. No rainfall was observed in Australia. Brazil experienced heavy rains, while Argentina saw light to moderate rainfall.  

Over the next 10 days, the Corn Belt in the United States will be warm with rainfall. Only the northernmost states will experience sub-zero temperatures. The US Wheat Belt will have warm weather with rainfall. In Western Europe, there will be moderate rain and snow. On the Balkans, the weather will be warm and dry. Weather across Ukraine will be cool with light rainfall, while in Russia, temperatures will remain above zero with light rainfall. In India, the weather will be dry and warm. In China, the conditions will vary—some regions will have rain while others remain dry, with both cool and warm temperatures. Indonesia and Malaysia will see heavy rainfall. In Australia, there will be light rainfall in the west and south, with more significant rain in the east. In Brazil, rainfall will continue, but it will be less intense in the south. In Argentina, good rainfall is expected across the country, most of it during the next week.  

Currently, Ukraine and Russia remain dry. The weather in the Northern Hemisphere is still warm, allowing winter crops to develop.  

GRAIN EXPORTS:

* US (September- August)  /  * Russia, Ukraine and the EU (July- June)

During the week, wheat and corn exports from the United States slowed significantly, but soybean exports remained very strong. Weekly export sales of wheat were not among the best. Corn and soybean sales declined compared to previous periods but still remain at a good level. Wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine combined total about 1.1–1.2 million tons weekly.  

Wheat – On Friday, wheat futures in Chicago and Paris increased. During the week ending November 7, 2024, U.S. wheat export sales amounted to 380,056 tons (374,735 the previous week and 176,296 a year earlier), export commitments reached 14.25 million tons (11.89), weekly exports were 301,281 tons (236,942 and 310,509), and season-to-date exports totaled 9.84 million tons (7.26). According to FranceAgriMer, 78% of planned soft wheat areas have been sown in France, 5% below the usual level. The export tax on Russian wheat rose by 4.7% to 2,689.7 rubles/ton. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecasts Argentina's wheat production at 18.6 million tons, with 17% of the fields already harvested.  

In 2024, winter wheat areas in Russia are expected to reach 15.4 million hectares, the lowest level since 2018/19, according to Rusagrotrans. This season's area was 16.3 million hectares. Analysts estimate that between February 15 and June 30, 2025, Russia's grain export quota could be between 5 and 17 million tons, most likely 11–12 million tons. The export quota for 2024 was 28 million tons, compared to 25.5 million in 2023 and 11 million in 2022, including 8 million tons of wheat.  

In the United States, 95% of corn and 96% of soybeans have been harvested, marking the end of the campaigns. Winter wheat sowing has been completed on 91% of the planned areas. Recent rainfall over the past 20 days has significantly improved crop conditions, with 44% rated as good or excellent. More rainfall is expected, likely further improving crop conditions. Some major wheat producers worldwide have issued slightly more optimistic forecasts for their 2025 productions. Meanwhile, India faces a different issue—record-high domestic wheat prices. The country experiences a severe grain shortage, coupled with rising inflation that reached a 14-month high in October. Imports of several million tons are still expected.  

Corn – On Friday, corn futures in Chicago and Paris increased. Weekly U.S. corn export sales were 1,315,104 tons (2,766,489 and 1,807,524), export commitments reached 29.90 million tons (21.10), weekly exports were 698,649 tons (917,604 and 683,062), and season-to-date exports totaled 8.37 million tons (6.50). This has been a very strong season for U.S. corn exports. During the week, U.S. ethanol production was reported at a very strong 1.113 million barrels per day, exceeding market expectations of 1.088 million barrels. In Argentina, 39% of planned corn areas have been sown, and favorable weather conditions have resulted in good crop conditions.  

Soybeans – On Friday, soybean, soymeal, and soyoil futures in Chicago, rapeseed futures in Paris, and canola futures in Canada increased. In October, the US processed a record 5.44 million tons of soybeans, surpassing market expectations. Weekly U.S. soybean export sales were 1,555,425 tons (2,037,193 and 3,853,236), export commitments reached 29.86 million tons (28.09), weekly exports totaled 2,341,413 tons (2,424,179 and 1,926,189), and season-to-date exports reached 15.08 million tons (13.92). Soymeal sales amounted to 302,413 tons, while soyoil sales totaled 16,469 tons. Conab forecasts Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production at 166.05 million tons and corn production at 119.7 million tons. Soybeans have been sown on 20% of the planned areas in Brazil.  

According to ProZerno, Russia's sunseed production in 2024 will reach 15.8–15.9 million tons (17.3 in 2023). Soybean production is expected to be 7–7.1 million tons (6.8), and rapeseed production is forecasted at 4.7–4.8 million tons (4.2). The Ukrainian Agrarian Business Club forecasts Ukraine's 2024 sunseed production at 10.8 million tons (15 in 2023). As of November 8, 2024, 97% of sunseed areas in Ukraine have been harvested, yielding 9.96 million tons. Quick calculations suggest a final production of 10.3 million tons. Approximately 1.5 million tons of sunseed are expected to remain outside official records, as happens each year. Regardless, sunseed production is low. The key question is how much prices for other oils will rise and how sunseed oil will maintain a premium over them.  

During the week, political dynamics in the United States were high, even though the new president is clear. Nominations for heads of various government agencies are now beginning. These appointments will largely determine the policies pursued across sectors, including agriculture. It is expected that higher inflation with lower interest rates will generally be tolerated. Countries around the world are swiftly adapting to the new changes brought by the global leader. For instance, China announced the removal of the tax credit for exporting controversial used cooking oil, which was being imported into the U.S. for biodiesel production. While it is difficult to say if this change is directly linked to the U.S. elections, it is likely something the new administration would criticize. The result was immediate—on Friday, soyoil prices surged sharply, along with the entire soybean complex, following a week of massive sell-offs across all crops.  

Since 2016, China has been carefully preparing to reduce its dependence on the United States. In 2016, China purchased 40% of its soybean needs from the United States, compared to just 18% in 2024. At the same time, various measures have been implemented to reduce soybean consumption or limit its growth in the country. China is now much better prepared for a trade war with the U.S. than before. However, the U.S. is also more prepared. Americans are far less dependent on China for soybean exports. Observations of actions by both countries suggest that any conflict now would be much softer, more organized, and constructive.  

Another important piece of news from China was the forecast by Chinese officials that soybean imports into the country this year will decline by 9.5% due to weak demand.  

Another key development during the week was the continued strengthening of the US dollar, which also exerted downward pressure on agricultural commodity prices. The dollar reached its highest levels against a basket of currencies since October 2023. Since we work with euros, these changes are largely neutral or slightly positive for us. What could cause the US dollar index to decline? One possibility is a reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Further rate cuts are expected, but persistent inflation prevents swift action. The Fed focuses on the labor market, but the impact of declining corporate profits, leading to layoffs, is becoming evident.  

In October, US consumer prices rose by 0.2% compared to September and 2.6% compared to October 2023. It is clear that without changes in monetary policy, the dollar will remain strong, suppressing prices for all goods. Amid these processes, markets remain highly volatile.  

The La Niña climate phenomenon has not yet appeared, according to NOAA. The chance of its emergence by the end of December is estimated at 57%. La Niña is still in forecasts but is developing very weakly. There is a high probability that the entire La Niña phase will be weak and quite short. Typically, La Niña brings cold weather to northern parts of the United States and warm, dry conditions to the south, but that is not the case now.  

Changes in FOB prices of major exporters in recent days:

During the week, FOB prices mostly declined.  

Wheat – FOB wheat prices decreased for the fourth consecutive week, with the U.S. being the only exception. The FOB price of Bulgarian wheat is 229 USD/ton (-$2/ton for the week and -$7/ton compared to the previous week). The FOB price of Australian milling wheat is at 236 USD/ton (-$7 for the week and +$4 compared to the previous week), wheat with 10% protein is priced at 229 USD/ton (-$5 for the week and +$3 compared to the previous week), and Australian feed wheat is priced at 198 USD/ton ($203 a week earlier).  

Corn – FOB corn prices declined. During the week, the FOB price of Brazilian corn decreased by 5 USD/ton to 210 USD/ton (-$2 compared to the previous week). The FOB price of corn from the United States and Argentina remains significantly lower than that of other exporters such as Brazil and Ukraine.  

Soybeans – FOB soybean prices decreased. The FOB price of Brazilian soybeans dropped by 14 USD/ton (+$13 the previous week) to 399 USD/ton. Brazilian and U.S. soybean prices are similar, indicating that competition is once again present.  

During the past week, global vegetable oil prices continued to rise, with minor exceptions in some markets. The growth is occurring under challenging conditions for grain and oilseed crops.  

Export prices Black Sea, USD/mt (compared to the previous week):