Wheat

Chicago wheat slipped as the market “sold the fact” of China’s return, with December ’25 CBOT settling at $5.35½/bu (−19¼¢). KC HRW also fell, while Minneapolis spring was mixed as nearby December eked out gains. Early enthusiasm faded amid still-delayed U.S. export-sales data, even as trade chatter kept weekly sales ideas in a broad 250–650 KMT range.

Corn

Corn eased into the close despite a powerful biofuels backdrop, with December ’25 finishing at $4.28¾/bu (−6½¢). The national average cash corn slipped to $3.89¾, while record U.S. ethanol output at 1.123 million bpd and rising stocks to 22.655 million bbl continued to provide medium-term support. Brazil’s export program remains brisk, with ANEC projecting 5.57 MMT in November after 6.5 MMT shipped in October.

Soybeans

Soybeans led losses as November ’25 closed at $10.91¾/bu (−28¢), with soymeal off $9.80–$12.50 and soyoil down 26–34 points. Another 377 deliveries brought the month’s total to 1,470, while COFCO’s procurement signing in Shanghai lacked volume details. Analysts still penciled sizable weekly sales despite the ongoing U.S. data delay.

China broadens ag engagement beyond wheat as U.S. trade thaw deepens

This week’s renewed U.S.–China engagement went beyond the headline wheat purchase. Beijing’s state-run COFCO hosted a high-profile soybean procurement ceremony during the U.S.–China Agricultural Trade Cooperation Forum in Shanghai, underscoring an effort to restore normalized flows of agricultural trade after several years of disruption. While officials stopped short of specifying tonnage or supplier details, the White House said China intends to buy at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans before year-end and a minimum of 25 million tons annually for the next three years—though Beijing has yet to confirm those numbers.

The reopening signals go further: a U.S. sorghum cargo was reportedly loaded for China—the first such shipment since October 2024—after Beijing announced it would remove a 10–15% tariff on certain U.S. farm goods, including wheat and sorghum, starting November 10. The rollback follows the Xi–Trump meeting in Seoul, which helped ease months of political tension and allowed for cautious optimism that ag trade may regain momentum. China imported 5.7 MMT of U.S. sorghum last year, roughly two-thirds of its total intake, and traders expect renewed interest now that punitive levies are being lifted.

Still, price competitiveness remains an obstacle. U.S. wheat is far from the cheapest origin compared to Black Sea or EU offers, making China’s 120,000-ton wheat booking largely a political gesture rather than a commercial one. Traders estimate roughly 60,000 tons of soft white wheat and 60,000 tons of spring wheat for December shipment, with South Korea also active in the market—tendering for 60,000 tons of optional-origin wheat and another 50,000 tons of U.S. wheat due Friday.

The improved tone between Washington and Beijing comes as USDA confirmed it is proceeding with data collection for its November 14 Crop Production Report, which will include updated yield and acreage estimates for U.S. corn and soybeans for the first time since September. However, weekly export sales reports remain indefinitely delayed by the prolonged government shutdown, forcing analysts to rely on private survey ranges to gauge overseas demand.

Against this backdrop, the U.S. Department of Energy reported record ethanol production of 1.123 million bpd, with stocks rising 1.3% to 22.655 million barrels—evidence that biofuels remain a key pillar of grain demand. Meanwhile, Russia’s agriculture ministry proposed new grain-quality control regulations, reintroducing inspections and traceability standards for medium-size storage facilities as the country copes with its smallest harvest in five years. Analysts see this as an effort to defend Russia’s export reputation amid declining volume and tighter global competition.

In South America, Brazil’s favorable late-October weather improved crop prospects and accelerated wheat harvest progress, though it pressured domestic prices month-on-month, with Paraná’s October average down 9.7% and Rio Grande do Sul off 9.6%. Brazil’s Supreme Court also suspended legal proceedings over the country’s controversial soy moratorium, maintaining uncertainty over deforestation-linked sourcing policies. Meanwhile, Argentina’s government approved a $277 million port investment on the Paraná River under its RIGI tax-break scheme, aimed at strengthening agricultural export logistics.

India’s wheat outlook also steadied: the 2026/27 crop is preliminarily projected at 114.4 MMT on 32.7 Mha of stable area, supported by a 6.6% MSP increase to ₹2,585/quintal. The monsoon closed 8% wetter than normal, and despite localized flooding in Punjab, replanting programs are underway. Argentina’s 2025/26 soybean production remains pegged near 47.4 MMT, with recent dryness easing excess soil moisture in the Pampas but the looming La Niña forecast keeping yield risks on the radar.

Together, these developments frame a grain market in transition—politically thawing, climatically mixed, and logistically recalibrating—where trade normalization, energy-linked demand, and regional policy shifts continue to shape price sentiment heading into mid-November.