Wheat

Chicago wheat finished higher on Wednesday as winter wheats tallied modest gains while spring wheat lagged. December ’25 CBOT closed at $5.54¾/bu, up 4½¢, with KC HRW firmer and Minneapolis spring fractionally lower. A relatively dry 7-day U.S. outlook outside parts of the Eastern Corn Belt and another missed USDA Export Sales report amid the prolonged government shutdown kept enthusiasm in check, but trade still penciled 250–650 KMT in weekly sales ideas for the 10/30 week.

Corn

Corn pushed higher into the close on a strong biofuels headline. December ’25 settled at $4.35¼/bu, up 3¾¢, after EIA reported a record U.S. ethanol run of 1.123 million bpd for the week to Oct 31, with inventories up to 22.655 million bbl. Analysts continue to estimate sizable weekly export sales despite the lack of official data during the shutdown, while the national average cash price firmed to $3.96.

Soybeans

Soybeans rebounded double-digits as policy headlines met better product tone. November ’25 settled at $11.19¾/bu, up 11½¢, with soymeal up $4.40–$7.40 and soyoil steady to 16 points higher. China’s partial rollback of retaliatory tariffs did not remove the combined 13% levy on U.S. soy, keeping Brazil competitive; deliveries continued to trickle, and basis action in the North/PNW hinted at recent buying despite absent USDA sales data.

China reshapes—but doesn’t flip—soy demand math

Beijing will remove up to 15% in added duties on a range of U.S. farm goods from Nov 10, yet U.S. soybeans still face a combined 13% tariff burden. Traders suggest that keeps Brazilian offers advantaged for Chinese crushers even as political optics improved after the Xi–Trump meeting; the White House touted prospective large purchases, but Beijing has not confirmed volumes, so the market awaits proof in daily flashes and freight.

Weather turns market-friendly: U.S. warmth, Brazil wetter, steady Argentina

A warm U.S. 15-day profile with isolated wet spells in the West/Southern Plains favors harvest pace and fieldwork, while central Brazil shifts wetter as reinforcing fronts enhance showers supportive for soybean germination. Argentina retains good soil moisture for early corn and sunflowers, though recurring fronts keep wheat disease pressure on the radar. In the tropics, Typhoon Kalmaegi targets Vietnam with heavy rains into N. Thailand.

Macro tone and positioning

Across the board, futures and open interest changes pointed to two-way, selective risk-add: SRW and HRW OI fell while corn and soy OI rose on Tuesday, aligning with fund flows that leaned SRW-long, corn-short, soy-long. Producer sentiment improved as the Purdue/CME Ag Barometer ticked up to 129, driven by better “current conditions,” though the gap between more upbeat livestock and cautious crop producers persists.

Balance sheets and surveys steady the ship

S&P Global left U.S. 2025 yield marks unchanged at 185.5 bpa for corn and 53.0 bpa for soybeans, nudging corn output to 16.803 bbu on slightly higher harvested acres. With the next Crop Production update due mid-November, these estimates serve as waypoints as the trade triangulates export pace and South American planting weather.

EU trade pulse and Black Sea policy watch

EU soft-wheat exports reached 8.0 MMT as of Nov 2, about 4% behind last year; Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Egypt led demand, while EU corn imports trailed 26% y/y. Separately, Moscow is weighing a 20 MMT grain export quota for Feb 15–Jun 30, 2026, potentially including corn and barley—parameters that could reshape second-half flow and premiums if finalized.

India’s rapeseed momentum and Asian vegoil calculus

Favorable rains, strong domestic demand and record Chinese buying of rapeseed meal have Indian farmers expanding rapeseed/mustard seedings by 7–8%, with early sown area already up 13.5% y/y. Higher Indian rapeseed output would help curb edible-oil imports and tug regional spreads among palm, soyoil and sunflower oil across South Asia.

Demand signals beyond China: Bangladesh steps up for U.S. soy

Bangladesh’s three biggest crushers intend to buy about $1 billion of U.S. soybeans over the next year—roughly tripling 2024 purchases—adding a non-China tailwind to U.S. export books just as the market debates how much discretionary Chinese demand emerges under the unchanged 13% tariff headwind.

Sustainability headline with long-run supply implications

JBS reiterated plans to trace 100% of Brazil’s cattle herds, a deforestation-risk curb that, while not immediately price-active for grains, can influence land use, biofuel narratives and feed demand trajectories over time as Brazil positions itself at COP30 as a showcase for “future of food and biofuels.”

US river logistics and regional weather wrinkles to watch

Mississippi River levels are cresting north-to-south this week; with a clipper-driven pattern offering little precipitation, hydrology could deteriorate into late November absent a regime change, keeping an eye on barge drafts and basis along key nodes. Europe trends warmer with sub-normal rain in the center; Black Sea east stays moisture-short; Australia’s mixed, late-season moisture arrives unevenly for maturing wheat/canola.