Wheat

Chicago SRW Dec ’25 started Friday’s session hovering just under the prior close after Thursday’s $5.06½/bu finish, with early screens shading a couple of cents lower as trade weighed soft EU shipment pace, persistent Black Sea competition, and a generally drier U.S. winter-belt forecast into mid-October. Minneapolis spring continued to outperform slightly, while HRW tracked the softer tone. The overnight dip came against rising open interest, suggesting fresh positioning rather than simple long liquidation.

Corn

CBOT Dec ’25 corn opened near the $4.18¼/bu Thursday close, leaning fractionally lower early as outside markets (firmer dollar, softer crude) added drag despite cooperative U.S. harvest weather. With export-sales reporting still paused, traders stayed anchored to private cash prints and inspections, while Friday’s tape also digested a modestly lower Chinese corn-import outlook and ongoing competition from Brazil’s aggressive export line-up.

Soybeans

CBOT Nov ’25 began Friday a touch weaker after settling $10.22¼/bu on Thursday, with early pressure tied to softer meal and a give-back in soyoil despite overnight firmness in palm. November’s month-to-date futures average in the low $10.20s continued to steer U.S. crop-insurance price discovery. Near-term attention stayed fixed on Brazil’s rainfall onset in the Center-West and U.S. harvest logistics.

Global Market Drivers

Canada’s rail throughput sent a rare late-harvest positive logistics signal. CN Rail moved a record 2.91 MMT of grain from Western Canada in September—about 80k above any prior September—bolstering confidence in Pacific/Atlantic export reliability just as Prairie volumes peak. That capacity tailwind helps smooth nearby flows and narrows basis risk along the West Coast.

Argentina turned the wheat dial to bullish-supply but competitive-price. Rosario lifted its 2025/26 wheat forecast to 23 MMT (from 20), matching the all-time high on better moisture and yields, while leaving corn at a record 61 MMT and soybeans at 47 MMT. Corn planting reached roughly a quarter of intended area and soy seeding is slated for the back half of October—an export-heavy mix that strengthens Río de la Plata offers into Q4.

Russia kept FOBs heavy even as farmer incentives shift. Moscow’s floating “damper” cut the wheat export duty about 20% for Oct 8–14, with corn duty also lowered and barley at zero, reinforcing abundant Black Sea availability following ~130 MMT already harvested and a 135 MMT national target. At the same time, officials flagged a >6% reduction in 2025 wheat area as growers pivot toward oilseeds, a medium-term watch-item if prices don’t improve.

Palm-oil dynamics turned into a two-way volatility source for veg-oils. Indonesia confirmed B50 implementation in H2-2026 and estimated an extra 5.3 MMT of crude palm oil would be needed—supportive for medium-term demand—while Malaysia projected 2026 average CPO near 3,900–4,100 ringgit/ton on higher global output. Yet September MPOB data surprised with stocks up 7.2% to ~2.36 MMT (near a two-year high), tempering near-term price enthusiasm and tugging on soyoil-palm spreads.

Ukraine’s export math tightened. Grain and legume shipments since July 1 totaled ~7.2 MMT, down 39% year on year, with corn exports especially soft (−69% y/y). The slower corridor pace adds background support to world prices at the margin and keeps attention on alternative European and Mediterranean routes as winter-crop establishment proceeds.

Brazil balanced weather relief with harvest/planting milestones. Central Brazil’s rains were forecast to “switch on” the wet season from Friday forward—key for stabilizing early soybean stands after two dry weeks—while Rio Grande do Sul reported the very first wheat cutting with strong yield potential. Heavy precipitation slowed first-crop corn seeding in some southern zones but overall national progress remained solid.

Macro and policy noise returned to soybeans. U.S. commentary suggested hopes for renewed Chinese buying after late-October talks, but with aid headlines deferred until the federal shutdown ends and buyers still favoring South American origin, futures greeted the rhetoric with fatigue. Market sensitivity remains high: any verifiable Chinese demand would quickly ripple through Gulf basis and nearby spreads.

U.S. energy and river conditions framed the domestic demand/flow picture. DOE/EIA showed ethanol output rebounding to ~1.071m bpd with stocks near 22.72m bbl and exports at ~138k bpd—constructive for corn grind—while recent Ohio Valley rains briefly helped Mississippi River levels. Forecasts still imply only short-lived relief, keeping barge drafts, freight premiums, and basis management squarely in focus as harvest accelerates.