Wheat

Wheat faded into Thursday’s close after an early bid, with December ’25 CBOT settling at $5.19½/bu, down 1 cent on the day. Kansas City eased 3–4¾ cents, while Minneapolis held near unchanged to a penny higher in deferreds. Tender demand offered a floor—Algeria was said to have booked ~600,000 t and South Korean mills bought 50,000 t of U.S. origin—even as EU soft-wheat exports since July 1 hovered near 4.12 MMT, well below last year’s pace. U.S. winter wheat is 20% planted (4% emerged) and spring harvest is 96%, broadly seasonal.

Corn

Corn slipped into the finish as energy data overshadowed export optimism. December ’25 closed at $4.24¼/bu, down 2 cents, despite a fresh USDA flash to Mexico for 312,956 MT and solid inspections earlier in the week. The EIA reported ethanol output down to 1.024 mbpd while stocks jumped 866k bbl to 23.468 million bbl, a bearish near-term read-through for corn grind. Analysts look for weekly Export Sales of 1.0–1.8 MMT; Brazil’s line-up thickened with ANEC lifting September corn exports to 7.61 MMT and a South Korean buyer tendering 140,000 MT.

Soybeans

Soybeans couldn’t hold intraday strength, with November ’25 closing at $10.09/bu, down 3 cents, as soymeal eased $1–$3.40 and soyoil slipped 1–6 points. USDA flagged a 101,400 MT soymeal sale to Guatemala. Market focus stayed on Argentina’s tax moves and China’s swift pivot: private trackers put Chinese purchases near 20 Argentine cargoes (~1.3 MMT) for Nov–Jan, a window usually dominated by U.S. beans. ANEC trimmed Brazil’s September bean export view to 7.15 MMT.

Argentina’s fast-on/fast-off export-tax saga redrew soy trade lanes. Buenos Aires temporarily scrapped levies on grains and by-products—prompting a flood of forward sales and $4.2B in FX declarations—then reinstated them once a $7B cap was hit in just two days. Farmers sold ~1.2 MMT of soy on Tuesday alone, and Chinese buyers snapped up at least 20 cargoes for November, likely pushing some volumes into early 2026 and crowding the U.S. out of its traditional Q4 window.

China’s policy tone added torque to the reroute. While Beijing said the U.S. should remove “unreasonable” tariffs to expand two-way trade, it still hadn’t booked a single new-crop U.S. soy cargo as of Sept. 11—unprecedented in USDA records. Domestically, officials flagged a bumper 2025 harvest with ~20% of autumn grain already cut and credited 63.2% of yield gains to ag tech, signals that can temper import timing for corn and soy.

Energy data flipped the corn narrative. After headline noise around renewables, hard numbers showed U.S. ethanol stocks swelling 3.8% w/w to 23.468 million bbl as output slipped to 1.024 mbpd—pressure that offset export support. In vegoils, Malaysian palm futures jumped to 4,444 ringgit and a veteran trader argued prices could top 5,000 by year-end—and even test 5,500 in Q1 if Indonesia pushes toward B50—tightening the linkage with soyoil and stoking broader food-inflation risk.

Black Sea and Australia kept wheat competitive. IKAR raised Russia’s 2025 wheat crop to 87.5 MMT and nudged export potential to 44.1 MMT, while a Reuters poll pointed to Australia’s third-largest wheat crop (~35.3 MMT) and record barley (~14.7 MMT). With EU export pace still soft versus last year and Ukraine constrained by wartime logistics, tenders from Algeria and South Korea helped redistribute flows and cushion SRW/HRW spreads.

Macro trade architecture continued to shift. Canada and Indonesia inked a deal to lower barriers and ease investment—another lane for palm, processed foods, and grains—while Washington signaled a farmer-relief package could land “in the next couple of weeks,” a cushion that may influence U.S. acreage and marketing decisions into the 2026 cycle.

Brazil’s governance watch loomed over oilseeds. Antitrust tribunal CADE set Sept. 30 to start voting on an appeal tied to the soy moratorium, a decades-old pact credited with curbing Amazon deforestation. The outcome could reset compliance and sourcing rules for crushers and traders in the world’s top soy exporter, with implications for ESG-driven demand and EU deforestation compliance.

Weather set the tactical pace. U.S. Northern Plains warmth and dryness favored early harvest; recent Central/Southern Plains rains hampered corn/soy cutting but aided winter wheat stands; Midwest showers give way to a drier run that should accelerate fieldwork; Delta rains may only briefly lift river levels before dryness likely returns. In Brazil, a stalled front from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais provided patchy planting moisture, while Argentina’s favorable soils get another front Fri–Sat.

Brazil’s cross-currents extended to wheat. With taxes temporarily off earlier in the week, Brazil’s wheat imports from Argentina surged toward multi-year highs through August, pressuring domestic prices near import parity—an added reminder that Argentina’s policy toggles can ripple across regional balances as well as global soy flows.

Positioning hinted at fresh risk-taking. Preliminary open interest changes into Wednesday showed SRW −5,686, HRW −248, corn −5,812, soy +2,974, soymeal +3,879, and soyoil +5,447—signals of rotation rather than simple short covering, with Thursday’s boards opening firmer in wheat and soy and modestly higher in corn before the sales data.