Wheat

Chicago opened steadier after Wednesday’s fade. December ’25 CBOT wheat started Thursday near $5.25/bu, roughly 5½ cents above yesterday’s $5.19½ close, with HRW and spring wheat a touch firmer on the open. Tender demand offered a backstop as Algeria reportedly booked close to 600,000 t and South Korean mills secured 50,000 t of U.S. origin, even while EU soft-wheat shipments since July 1 are tracking near 4.12 MMT, below last year’s pace. U.S. winter wheat sits 20% planted with 4% emerged; spring wheat harvest is 96%, broadly seasonal.

Corn

Corn ticked higher out of the gate. December ’25 opened around $4.27½/bu, up about 3¼ cents versus Wednesday’s $4.24¼ settle. The board is balancing a fresh daily sale to Mexico (312,956 MT), expectations for solid weekly export sales (surveys: 1.0–1.8 MMT), and an EIA surprise build that took ethanol stocks up 3.8% w/w to 23.468 million bbl as production slipped to 1.024 mbpd. Brazil’s lineup thickened with ANEC lifting September corn exports to 7.61 MMT, while a South Korean importer floated a 140,000 MT tender.

Soybeans

Soybeans firmed on the open after a soft close. November ’25 traded near $10.15/bu, up ~6 cents from Wednesday’s $10.09 finish, with product markets steadying after midweek slippage. Traders remained focused on Argentina’s tax moves and China’s rapid rerouting: private trackers counted ~20 Argentine cargoes (~1.3 MMT) booked for Nov–Jan before the levy was reinstated. ANEC trimmed Brazil’s September bean export view to 7.15 MMT, and the weekly U.S. sales survey points to 0.6–1.6 MMT.

The global currents steering today’s trade

Argentina’s tax whiplash rewired Q4 flows—then hit pause. Buenos Aires’ temporary suspension of export taxes on grains, oilseeds, and by-products (beans previously 26%, oil/meal 24.5%, corn 9.5%) sparked a flood of forward selling—farmers moved roughly 1.2 MMT of soy on Tuesday alone and exporters declared $4.2B for FX settlement—before authorities reapplied the levies after the $7B sales cap was reached within two days. The burst redirected Chinese demand toward the Plate, with at least 20 cargoes snapped up for November and some volumes likely rolling into early 2026, crowding the U.S. out of a window it typically dominates.

China’s policy tone and purchasing strategy added another twist. While Beijing signaled it wants “unreasonable tariffs” removed to expand two-way trade, importers accelerated Argentine purchases under the tax holiday and still hadn’t booked a single new-crop U.S. soybean cargo as of Sept. 11—an unprecedented start to the season in USDA records. Domestically, officials flagged a bumper 2025 harvest with about 20% of autumn grain already cut and credited 63.2% of yield gains to ag technology—signals that can temper import needs for corn and soy depending on timing.

Biofuels swung from rhetoric to hard data. After choppy headline risk around renewable fuels, the EIA print showed U.S. ethanol stocks up to 23.468 m bbl (+866k w/w) as output dipped to 1.024 mbpd, a near-term bearish read-through for corn grind that offsets export optimism. In vegoils, Malaysia’s palm oil rallied to 4,444 ringgit overnight and veteran voices argued prices could top 5,000 by year-end—and even test 5,500 in Q1 if Indonesia pushes toward B50 biodiesel—tightening the linkage with soyoil and stoking food-inflation risk.

Black Sea and European supply signals kept wheat competitive. Consultancy IKAR raised Russia’s 2025 wheat crop to 87.5 MMT and nudged export potential to 44.1 MMT, while the EU’s shipment pace remained subdued versus last year. Ukraine’s wartime frictions continue to constrain season-to-date exports. Meanwhile, tenders redrew trade routes as Algeria and South Korea absorbed U.S. and global origin, cushioning SRW/HRW spreads despite heavier global stocks.

Southern Hemisphere weather and balance sheets stayed pivotal. In Brazil, a front stalled from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais delivered early planting moisture for some areas, but central Brazil still looks patchy until more consistent October rains; producers may wait to secure germination. Argentina retains favorable soil moisture for corn, with another front due Fri–Sat, while soybean planting begins in October. These patterns underpin record-leaning Brazilian soy prospects and a constructive Argentine corn start.

Australia leaned bullish on exportable surpluses. Analysts now see the country on track for its third-largest wheat crop (~35.3 MMT) and a record barley harvest (~14.7 MMT), adding to global availability even as October rains remain critical in parts of the east. The stronger Aussie profile complements Black Sea supply and helps explain why Chicago wheat rallies have struggled to hold.

Trade architecture kept shifting beyond the headlines. Canada and Indonesia inked a trade deal to lower barriers and ease investment—another lane for palm, processed foods and grains—while the U.S. signaled a farmer relief package could be announced “in the next couple of weeks,” a cushion that can influence acreage and marketing decisions into the 2026 cycle. Surveyed analysts also expect today’s USDA export sales at 1.0–1.8 MMT corn and 0.5–1.6 MMT soybeans, with wheat at 300–600k MT.

Brazil’s governance watch loomed over oilseeds. The antitrust tribunal CADE set Sept. 30 to start voting on an appeal tied to the soy moratorium. Depending on the outcome—and amid parallel court actions—compliance and sourcing rules could shift for crushers and traders in the world’s top soybean exporter, with implications for ESG-driven demand and EU deforestation compliance.