Wheat

Wheat steadied early but faded into the close on Wednesday, with December ’25 CBOT settling at $5.19½/bu, down 1 cent, as Kansas City softened by 3–4¾ cents and Minneapolis finished near unchanged to a penny higher across deferreds. Tender demand helped cushion the board—Algeria reportedly booked close to 600,000 t and South Korean mills purchased 50,000 t of U.S. origin—yet the broader export backdrop stayed mixed with EU soft-wheat shipments since July 1 estimated near 4.12 MMT, below last year’s pace. U.S. winter wheat was 20% planted with 4% emerged, and spring wheat harvest at 96%, broadly seasonal.

Corn

Corn slipped into the finish, with December ’25 closing at $4.24¼/bu, down 2 cents, despite a fresh USDA daily sale of 312,956 MT to Mexico and expectations for solid weekly export bookings. The EIA update showed ethanol output easing to 1.024 million bpd (-31k w/w) while stocks rose by 866k bbl to 23.468 million bbl, a surprise build that tempered board strength. Analysts look for Thursday’s Export Sales to print 1.0–1.8 MMT for 2025/26, while Brazil’s ship line thickened: ANEC lifted September corn export ideas to 7.61 MMT.

Soybeans

Soybeans gave back early gains to settle lower, with November ’25 at $10.09/bu, down 3 cents, as soymeal fell $1–$3.40 and soyoil slipped 1–6 points. USDA flagged a 101,400 MT soybean meal sale to Guatemala for 2025/26. Traders stayed focused on Argentina’s tax holiday and China’s swift pivot: market talk put Chinese purchases near 20 Argentine cargoes (~1.3 MMT) for Nov–Jan, a window typically dominated by U.S. beans. ANEC trimmed Brazil’s September bean export view to 7.15 MMT, a 0.38 MMT drop from last week.

The day’s global market movers

Argentina’s tax suspension kept reshaping Q4 flows. Buenos Aires’ temporary abolition of export levies on grains, oilseeds and by-products—targeted to run through October or until $7B of declared exports—is redirecting soybean demand toward the Plate. Private trackers now count ~20 China-bound cargoes, some priced roughly $2/bu over CBOT November on a CNF basis, with about 20% set to roll into early 2026.

China’s domestic supply narrative firmed. The agriculture ministry said ~20% of autumn grain is already harvested and flagged technology’s 63.2% contribution to yield gains, reinforcing expectations for a bumper 2025 harvest. Stronger local output can alter import timing—especially for corn and soy—just as Argentine beans crowd the U.S. out of its traditional window.

Biofuel signals turned two-sided. Rhetoric around renewable fuels at the UN General Assembly unsettled sentiment, yet board action stayed orderly. Later, the EIA print showed ethanol production down to 1.024 mbpd with stocks up to 23.468 m bbl, a bearish near-term read-through for corn grind that offset some export optimism.

Vegetable oils eyed a potential price squeeze. Indonesia’s July palm exports slipped to 3.537 MMT as output and stocks rose, while veteran trader Dorab Mistry argued palm could exceed 5,000 ringgit/t by year-end and even test 5,500 in Q1 if Indonesia pushes to B50 biodiesel—tightening the linkage to soyoil and raising broader food-inflation risks. Malaysian palm ended +29 ringgit overnight.

Weather set the tactical pace across the Americas. Northern Plains warmth/dryness favored early harvest; recent Central/Southern Plains rains hampered corn/soy cutting but helped winter-wheat stand; the Midwest’s mid-week showers give way to a drier stretch that should speed fieldwork; the Delta’s brief rain boost to river levels likely fades with renewed dryness into October. In Brazil, a front stalled from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais teased a wet-season start even as central rains remain inconsistent; Argentina saw weekend rainfall and a light frost risk that could nudge more corn into later planting slots.

Black Sea and EU tenders redrew wheat routes. Alongside Algeria’s ~600,000 t and South Korea’s 50,000 t U.S. purchase, the EU kept its wheat-export tally at 4.12 MMT since July 1 (vs 6.13 MMT a year ago). Russia maintained a 135 MMT grain harvest outlook with 119 MMT reportedly cut, while Ukraine’s wartime frictions kept season-to-date exports subdued versus last year.

U.S. export pulse stayed serviceable. Weekly inspections earlier in the week printed 1.329 MMT corn, 484k MT soybeans, and 854k MT wheat—with Mexico and the Philippines leading corn and wheat destinations respectively—while open-interest shifts into Tuesday pointed to new positioning (SRW -2,304; HRW -606; corn +2,036; soy -1,346) rather than simple short-covering.

Protein markets and policy watch rounded out risk. Ahead of USDA’s Sept. 1 Hogs & Pigs release, surveys looked for inventories +0.5% y/y with the breeding herd -0.5%, a combination that shapes feed demand into winter. On the geopolicy periphery, Indonesia’s palm-oil metrics and governance debates around sustainability standards remained in focus for vegoil trade through early 2026.