Wheat

Chicago opened Wednesday with a steadier tone after Tuesday’s rebound. Dec ’25 CBOT wheat traded early around $5.21¼/bu, roughly ¾¢ above Tuesday’s $5.20½ close, with HRW a touch firmer and spring wheat edging ahead as well. European shipment pace continues to lag last year—EU soft-wheat exports since July 1 are put near 4.12 MMT—while Algeria reportedly booked close to 600,000 t in a tender and South Korean mills secured 50,000 t of U.S. origin, all of which lent a supportive bias to spreads. U.S. winter wheat is 20% planted with 4% emerged; spring wheat harvest sits at 96%, broadly on seasonal pace.

Corn

Corn started the day fractionally softer, with Dec ’25 near $4.25¾/bu, about ½¢ under Tuesday’s $4.26¼ settle. The board firmed yesterday on a USDA daily sale to Mexico (122,947 t) and inspections at 1.329 MMT, while traders look to this morning’s ethanol update for a modest production bounce and a draw in stocks toward 22.46 m bbl after last week’s 22.60 m. Crop progress has 91% dented, 56% mature, and 11% harvested, and national ratings eased to 66% good/excellent. A warmer, drier October pattern should aid harvest, though Mississippi River levels remain a risk if dryness returns into October.

Soybeans

Soybeans opened a shade lower, with Nov ’25 around $10.11½/bu, roughly ½¢ under Tuesday’s $10.12 finish. U.S. conditions slipped to 61% good/excellent with 9% harvested. The tape stays fixated on China’s swift pivot to Argentina following Buenos Aires’ temporary export-tax suspension; traders estimate roughly 20 cargoes (~1.3 MMT) have been booked for Nov–Jan, a window that typically favors U.S. beans. Early Brazil planting creeps forward in the south while Mato Grosso awaits a consistent wet-season start.

Global currents shaping today’s session

The policy tone around U.S. renewable fuels turned choppier after remarks at the UN General Assembly unsettled biofuel sentiment, with some analysts noting the language made biofuels sound like part of a “big green lie.” Even so, front-month corn ticked higher and soybeans held flat as markets weighed the speech against underlying blend demand and feedstock economics.

Near-term U.S. ethanol expectations call for production at ~1.039 m bpd and a stock draw toward 22.462 m bbl into today’s EIA print, while protein markets eye the Sept. 1 hogs & pigs report (inventories seen up 0.5% y/y, breeding herd down 0.5%). These data points matter for corn grind and soymeal pull as harvest accelerates.

China expanded buying of Argentine soybeans to about 20 cargoes after Argentina’s tax holiday slashed levies (previously 26% on beans; 24.5% oil/meal; 9.5% corn), crowding the U.S. out of a period it typically dominates. Traders cite CNF premiums of roughly $2+/bu over CBOT November for these cargoes, with some volumes rolling into next year from the new Argentine crop.

In vegetable oils, Indonesia’s July palm exports eased to 3.537 MMT as output and stocks rose, while veteran trader Dorab Mistry projected prices could top 5,000 ringgit/t by year-end—and even 5,500 in Q1 if Indonesia pushes to B50 biodiesel—on flat productivity and policy-driven demand. Any such rally would tighten the linkage to soyoil and could feed broader food-price inflation.

Domestic fundamentals in China continue to signal resilience: authorities expect a bumper 2025 harvest, noting that ~20% of autumn grain is already cut and highlighting tech-led gains, with ag technology’s contribution to yields pegged at 63.2%. Stronger domestic output can alter import timing and volume—especially for corn and soy.

Weather remains the week’s tactical swing factor. Northern Plains warmth/dryness favors early harvest; Central/Southern Plains rains delayed corn/soy but aided winter-wheat establishment; the Midwest sees mid-week showers before a drier stretch speeds fieldwork; the Delta gets short-lived relief for river levels before dryness likely returns. In Brazil, a front stalled from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais teases a wet-season start; in Argentina, recent fronts brought rain and a light frost risk that could push some corn into later planting windows.

Black Sea and EU trade signals continue to steer wheat routes. The EU pegs wheat exports at 4.12 MMT (vs 6.13 prior year) as Algeria bought nearly 600,000 t and South Korea tapped 50,000 t U.S. wheat. Russia keeps a 135 MMT grain harvest outlook with 119 MMT reportedly cut, while Ukraine’s exports remain constrained relative to last season amid war-time frictions.