Wheat

Wheat rebounded across all three U.S. exchanges on Tuesday, clawing back part of Monday’s losses. December ’25 CBOT wheat settled at $5.20½/bu, up 9¾ cents on the day, while Kansas City HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat also finished higher. U.S. winter wheat planting reached 20%, with 4% emerged, broadly near seasonal benchmarks, as EU export pace lagged last year and Algeria returned to the tender market, adding a constructive tone to spreads into late Q3.

Corn

Corn closed firmer as export demand and pre-EIA positioning underpinned the board. December ’25 ended at $4.26¼/bu, up 4½ cents, after USDA reported a morning 122,947 MT sale to Mexico and weekly inspections printed 1.329 MMT. Crop progress showed 91% dented, 56% mature, and 11% harvested, with national conditions easing one point to 66% good/excellent. Traders looked for a steadier ethanol print midweek while cash basis held up despite mixed river logistics.

Soybeans

Soybeans stabilized after recent weakness. November ’25 settled at $10.12/bu, up 1 cent, as product markets diverged and headlines turned squarely to Argentina’s tax holiday and fast Brazilian crush expansion. U.S. conditions slipped to 61% good/excellent and harvest reached 9%; inspections were 484k MT, with private chatter of Pakistan buying 180k MT and reports that Chinese buyers booked 10–15 Argentine cargoes for Q4 following Buenos Aires’ tax suspension.

Global Market Movers

Argentina detonated the week’s biggest demand shock by suspending export taxes on grains, oilseeds, and by-products (and later beef/poultry) through Oct. 31 or until $7B in declared exports is reached. The move slashed levies that had run 26% on soybeans, 24.5% on soyoil/meal, and 9.5% on corn, prompting an immediate pickup in forward sales and a rally across local boards.

Within hours, China reportedly booked at least 10 Argentine soybean cargoes for November shipment—traditionally a U.S. window—at roughly $2.15–$2.30/bu over CBOT on a CNF basis, underscoring how tax policy can reroute Q4 flows and crowd out new-crop U.S. beans even as Chicago sits near multi-month lows.

U.S. export logistics and inspections painted a mixed but serviceable picture. Weekly inspections tallied 1.329 MMT corn, 484k MT soybeans, and 854k MT wheat, with Mexico leading corn and the Philippines topping wheat; open interest shifts showed money stepping back into SRW/HRW and soy, while trimming corn—signals of fresh positioning into harvest.

Crop progress and weather framed the near-term tape. The U.S. had corn 11% harvested and soybeans 9% harvested, winter wheat 20% planted; rains across parts of the Midwest and Plains slowed early cutting yet aided winter-wheat establishment and temporarily buoyed Mississippi levels, while Canada’s Prairies stayed warm and Brazil awaited a more consistent wet-season onset in Mato Grosso.

Brazil added longer-run supply heft. Soybean sowing reached ~0.9% nationally as of Sept. 18, with first-crop corn 25% planted in the Center-South. On the processing side, Abiove said installed oilseed crush capacity will reach 76.4 MMT/yr in 2025 (+5.7% y/y) across 127 active plants, backed by BRL 5.9B in planned investment tied to biodiesel demand—expansions that reinforce Brazil’s swing-supplier role in vegoils and meal.

Black Sea and EU signals stayed pivotal for wheat trade routes. Russia maintained a 135 MMT grain harvest outlook with 119 MMT already cut, while Ukraine started winter grain sowing in all regions and reported grain exports down about 40% y/y so far this season amid ongoing wartime frictions. The EU’s MARS unit trimmed corn and sunflower yields on drought in Southeast Europe even as northern zones trend better, keeping intra-EU balances in flux.

Quality variability surfaced in North America’s durum stream. Canadian officials flagged sprouting and mildew in early durum samples after late-season rains, a potential headwind for premium pasta-grade supplies despite a larger crop projection; any sustained quality downgrades could reshape North Africa and Mediterranean buying patterns into Q4.

Macro cross-currents rounded out the risk backdrop. Malaysian palm oil slid 99 ringgit overnight to 4,344, Chinese ag futures softened across vegoils, and U.S. protein markets popped on reports of a screwworm detection in Mexico near the U.S. border—an animal-health story that, if escalated, could reverberate into feed demand and by-product utilization. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Railways floated freight tariff hikes in a debt-reduction plan, a reminder that regional logistics costs remain a wild card for Black Sea export competitiveness.