Wheat

Chicago wheat opened softer after last week’s slippage. December ’25 CBOT wheat traded early near $5.17¾/bu, roughly 4¾ cents under Friday’s $5.22½ close, as winter wheat contracts eased while HRS held up a touch. Specs trimmed net shorts into mid-September, but firmer dollar tone and competitive global offers kept rallies in check even with U.S. accumulated sales tracking at a five-year high for the week in question.

Corn

Corn began Monday on the back foot as well. December ’25 hovered around $4.20¾/bu, about 3¼ cents below Friday’s $4.24 finish. U.S. total corn commitments are running 68% above last year and at a near-record pace for the date, yet harvest pressure, a bounce in the dollar, and mixed risk sentiment capped momentum despite fund short-covering and steady domestic cash basing.

Soybeans

November ’25 soybeans extended Friday’s weakness, opening near $10.11½/bu—down ~14 cents from the prior $10.25½ settle—as product markets softened and traders digested the lack of fresh China purchases alongside early Brazil planting signals. Managed money flipped net long into Sept. 16, but nearby selling persisted as export commitments lag typical seasonal pace.

Global currents reshaping today’s tape

Thailand unveiled a first-of-its-kind environmental filter on feed corn, moving to ban imports of animal-feed corn from burned fields starting Jan. 1 (pending cabinet sign-off). The rule targets transboundary haze from slash-and-burn in Myanmar/Laos/Cambodia and could open a pathway for U.S. corn once bilateral access is finalized—potentially rerouting regional flows during non-harvest windows.

Weather set-up leans harvest-friendly net, but timing matters. Moderate Corn Belt rains this week boost soil moisture for winter crops while delaying early soybean cutting; clearer, warmer conditions follow into next week. The Delta’s incoming showers may briefly lift Mississippi River levels, though low water risks could return into October. Canada’s Prairies stay warm; Brazil’s front stalls from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais, teasing a wet-season start that remains inconsistent farther north.

Demand signals diverged across proteins and vegoils. U.S. Cattle on Feed placements fell ~9.9% y/y in August, a marginal headwind for feed demand, while Malaysian palm oil is seen trading MYR 4,200–4,500/t in coming weeks as softer near-term demand meets supportive biodiesel mandates and a projected 2026 vegoil consumption > production backdrop. Indonesia’s Aug palm exports rose m/m, with flows shifting toward China and the EU.

Forward acreage and trade intent added structure. S&P Global projects U.S. 2026 plantings down for corn (94.5m acres) and up for soy (84m), reflecting profitability pressure and trade uncertainty. Separately, Taiwan signaled $10 billion of U.S. ag buys over four years across soy, corn, wheat, and beef—an anchor for longer-dated export visibility.

South America stayed pivotal. Argentina’s exchange sees record 105.1 MMT of grain/by-product exports in 2025/26 on a 146.4 MMT harvest, while Brazil advanced soy planting (0.7–0.9% of area) and maintained a record 177.7 MMT soybean outlook with CONAB; Brazil’s corn pace picked up too, with the first crop 25% planted in the Center-South. Currency moves kept Brazil sellers cautious as the real firmed, nudging CEPEA soy/corn indices only modestly.

China’s flows and policy tone were mixed but important. August soy arrivals from Brazil hit 10.49 MMT (85% share) with U.S. beans at 227k tons; Jan–Aug U.S. shipments are up y/y, yet Beijing has not booked new-crop U.S. soy. President Xi flagged stronger ag technology and capacity support ahead of the harvest festival, reinforcing a domestic-production push that can sway import timing.

Price board context into the open reinforced the macro mix. Overnight, SRW/HRW eased while HRS steadied; soybeans and soyoil slipped, palm edged higher, and Chinese ag futures were mixed (soymeal firmer, palm softer). Open interest rose across SRW, HRW, corn, soy, and meal into Friday, pointing to fresh positioning rather than simple short-covering into the weekend.

Policy & governance threads added ESG pressure points. Brazil’s soy moratorium scrutiny widened as the environment ministry and IBAMA were admitted as interested parties in the CADE process, while Indonesia expanded food-aid to include state-brand cooking oil—measures that can tilt regional vegoil flows and certification demands through 2026.

Micro fundamentals rounded out the tape. U.S. wheat export commitments are 20% above last year and at a five-year high for the week, corn commitments are 68% above last year and at a near-record for the date, and soy commitments are improving but still below average pacing—context that helps explain today’s firmer corn tone versus more fragile beans and wheat. Managed money cut shorts in wheat and corn and turned modestly long soy into Sept. 16, per CFTC.