Wheat
Chicago SRW Dec ’25 opened around $5.29¼/bu, up roughly 4¼¢ from Monday’s $5.25 close, as the market balanced a slightly friendlier U.S. WASDE (higher exports, lighter carry) against a heavier world sheet led by bigger Russia/EU/Canada/Ukraine/Australia crops. Positioning lent a tailwind: funds had increased net shorts into last Tuesday, and the late-Monday firmness plus early gains hinted at incremental short-covering even while HRW open interest kept climbing. Fresh Crop Progress data showed U.S. spring wheat 94% harvested (2 pts ahead of normal) and winter wheat 11% planted, just a whisker under the five-year pace, with export inspections a robust 775k t led by Mexico, Indonesia, and South Korea.
Corn
Chicago Dec ’25 started near $4.27½/bu, up about 4¼¢ from Monday’s $4.23¼ finish, with traders digesting USDA’s mix of a yield trim to 186.7 bpa but higher acres that still nets a 16.814 bbu crop and 2.11 bbu carryout. Fieldwork remains pivotal: denting reached 85%, 41% is mature, and 7% harvested—right on the five-year track—while conditions eased to 67% good/excellent. Inspections printed 1.512 MMT (Mexico/Japan prominent), a 149k-t flash sale to “unknown” added a demand note, and the national cash gauge firmed into $3.85½, even as low Mississippi levels keep basis risk in focus.
Soybeans
Chicago Nov ’25 opened near $10.49½/bu, about 6¾¢ above Monday’s $10.42¾ settle, after the board weighed USDA’s modestly higher 53.5 bpa yield and a 4.3 bbu crop against still-constructive crush economics. NOPA’s August crush set a monthly record at 189.8 mbu and soyoil stocks fell from July, supporting product margins. Crop Progress showed 41% dropping leaves and 5% harvested; conditions eased to 63% G/E. Cash beans hovered near $9.66 while inspections accelerated to 804k t with Italy, Bangladesh, and Mexico active—evidence that early-season flows are building despite historically light new-crop commitments.
Global currents to watch today
Policy and demand signaling kept biofuels front-and-center. With WASDE projecting a larger U.S. corn surplus, the Renewable Fuels Association renewed its push for nationwide E15, framing expanded blending as the fastest lever to absorb supply. The debate helps anchor corn’s demand narrative even as futures trade the day-to-day pull of basis, barge costs, and export sales pacing.
USDA’s data plumbing moves toward a relaunch. The department confirmed Oct 23 for its upgraded export-sales reporting system go-live, with the first weekly report due Oct 30—a credibility reset after 2022’s false start. Timelier, cleaner sales prints can jar short-term price action, shape interior basis expectations, and reduce the rumor premium that creeps in during reporting gaps.
Weather remains a logistics story as much as a yield story. Warmer North America should speed harvest, but recurring showers across the Northern Plains into the Midwest can snag fieldwork and truck/rail timing. Europe would welcome a break after weeks of rain to finish summer crops and firm winter-wheat seedbeds. The Black Sea stays drier than ideal for late corn fill and stand-up of winter wheat, while the Mississippi’s low flows keep barge rates—and interior spreads—elevated.
North Africa’s state buying stayed tethered to the Black Sea. Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr lined up 600k+ t of wheat for Sep–Oct and six veg-oil cargoes, predominantly from Russia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine. The buying reaffirms the basin’s pricing grip on Med demand as FOB competition stays fierce and keeps EU/U.S. exporters playing catch-up on value.
Europe’s supply bar rose again. A fresh research update lifted EU soft-wheat output to a record ~136.1 MMT for 2025/26—nearly 20% above last season—yet flagged sluggish exports amid heavy Russian competition and thin Chinese interest. The result: higher hurdles for EU pricing and Q4 logistics, with carry programs and freight optionality turning into key battlegrounds.
Brazil kept the taps open and the margins interesting. CONAB nudged 2024/25 corn to 139.67 MMT and soy to 171.5 MMT, while CEPEA highlighted firm domestic corn on active spot demand and seller restraint. Unusually, crusher profits sat near parity—soymeal ~51% and soyoil ~49%—as biodiesel pull lifted oil values to their strongest since last November, a dynamic that can tilt product spreads and crush cadence.
China redrew parts of the demand map. Beijing halved its 2024/25 corn import view to 3 MMT amid tariff frictions and quota limits, while soybean imports were lifted to 104 MMT on improved crush margins. Separately, state wheat procurement topped 100 MMT, and a Taiwan delegation began a U.S. tour to sign intent letters spanning soy, corn, wheat, and beef—small individually, but additive to the lane diversification trend.
Veg-oils skewed toward palm as festival stocking kicked in. India’s August edible-oil imports climbed to a one-year high at 1.62 MMT, with palm up 15.8% m/m to ~991k t. At the same time, Canada reported “constructive” talks with China over steep provisional canola duties, while Brazil won clearance to export beef tallow to Singapore—another biofuel-adjacent outlet that could reshape Asian fat/oil trade flows on the margin.
Ukraine’s export pace underlined corridor and quality friction. Season-to-date grain exports sit ~40% below last year—wheat −24%, corn −64%—even as early-grain harvest trails 2024 only marginally. With the EU’s duty-free quota for Ukrainian wheat finite and Black Sea freight spreads steering the value chain, the basin’s pricing power remains central to Q4 competitiveness.