Wheat

Chicago wheat futures ended Monday slightly firmer, with September 2025 contracts closing at $5.06 ¾ per bushel, up 2 cents on the day. Kansas City hard red winter wheat was weaker, slipping by up to 1 ¼ cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat gained 2–2 ½ cents. Harvest progress continued, with winter wheat 98% complete and spring wheat 53% harvested, just below the five-year average. USDA’s crop ratings showed 49% of the spring wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition, down 1% from last week. Export shipments surged to a multi-year high of 946,240 tons, more than doubling the previous week and 71% higher than the same period last year. Indonesia, the Philippines, and South Korea were key buyers, helping lift cumulative exports to 5.763 million tons, nearly 11% above last year. Despite strong demand, abundant Russian supply and harvest pressure remain constraints on price momentum.

Corn

Corn futures also posted modest gains on Monday, with September 2025 closing at $3.89 ¼ per bushel, up a penny. The USDA reported 44% of the U.S. corn crop dented and 7% mature, both in line with historical averages. Conditions held steady at 71% rated good or excellent. Export inspections reached 1.305 million tons, up 24% from last week and nearly 39% higher than a year ago, with Mexico and Japan leading purchases. U.S. marketing-year shipments now total 65.526 million tons, 28% larger year on year. In Brazil, AgRural estimated 98% of the second corn crop harvested, while planting of the 2025/26 first crop advanced to 3.2%. A fresh Taiwan tender for 65,000 tons added to export demand optimism. Still, widespread disease pressure in the Midwest, including southern rust and northern blight, remains a risk to yields.

Soybeans

Soybeans traded lower on Monday, with September 2025 contracts closing at $10.25 ½ per bushel, down 11 cents. The U.S. crop is progressing, with 89% of fields setting pods and 4% dropping leaves, both aligned with the five-year average. Crop ratings improved slightly to 69% good-to-excellent, up 1% from last week. Export inspections showed 382,806 tons shipped, down 24% from the prior week and nearly 9% below the same period last year. Indonesia, Mexico, and Italy were the top destinations. Despite weaker shipments, cumulative exports remain 11.5% above last year at 49.28 million tons. Soymeal futures were mixed, while soyoil weakened by 18–53 points. The market remains supported by historically strong U.S. pod counts from the ProFarmer tour but pressured by Brazil’s export dominance and U.S.–China trade uncertainties.

Global Market Drivers

Severe drought across Ukraine dominated headlines, threatening winter rapeseed sowing scheduled between late August and mid-September. Soil moisture levels are critically depleted, with rainfall only 30–60% of normal in many regions and as low as 5–25% in parts of Cherkasy and Dnipropetrovsk. Sunflower fields are already showing significant losses, raising alarms for vegetable oil markets worldwide.

The ProFarmer Crop Tour projected record U.S. corn and soybean harvests—16.204 billion bushels of corn and 4.246 billion bushels of soybeans—but also warned of widespread disease pressure. Tar spot, rusts, and sudden death syndrome were noted as yield risks that could offset some of the crop’s strong potential.

China–U.S. tensions escalated as Beijing criticized Washington’s protectionist farm policies. China highlighted a 51% drop in U.S. soybean imports during the first half of 2025, with Brazil continuing to dominate its purchases. U.S. restrictions on Chinese farmland acquisitions and retaliatory tariffs have further clouded trade prospects.

Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop was projected at 176.5 million tons, a 3% increase year on year, while corn output was estimated at 138.4 million tons. Farmers face tighter credit conditions and record loan defaults, slowing fertilizer purchases despite robust output projections.

Argentina also drew attention after frosts raised concerns for wheat crops. Meanwhile, Bunge chartered another soybean meal cargo for China, signaling a gradual resumption of Argentine exports after earlier disruptions diverted shipments to Southeast Asia.

Policy changes in the U.S. and abroad added new dynamics. The Trump administration’s EPA granted over 60 full refinery exemptions from biofuel mandates, sparking fears of reduced demand for corn and soybean-based fuels. Conversely, Indonesia pressed the EU to drop biodiesel tariffs after a WTO ruling in its favor, underscoring trade tensions in the palm oil market.

Weather conditions shaped market sentiment further. A widespread cooldown across the U.S. Midwest will bring drier conditions, potentially limiting late-season crop development. Europe is set for beneficial rains ahead of wheat planting, while Canada faces frost risks. In South America, Brazil and Argentina experienced mixed conditions, with rain aiding wheat but frosts causing local damage.

Logistical and protein market factors also weighed in. U.S. barge shipments on the Mississippi dropped to 667,000 tons, down from 853,000 tons the previous week, with soybean shipments falling 36%. Meanwhile, U.S. cattle placements fell 6.1% year on year, and Brazil’s poultry exports remained pressured by avian flu restrictions, further influencing feed grain demand.