Wheat
Wheat finished Tuesday on the back foot again as the market stayed focused on heavy exporter supplies and ongoing pressure across SRW/HRW. Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.09 1/2/bu, down 11 1/4 cents.
Corn
Corn followed wheat lower, with added “outside” pressure from a sharp drop in crude oil during the session. Mar ’26 CBOT corn closed at $4.36 1/2/bu, down 3 1/4 cents.
Soybeans
Soybeans extended their pullback, with the market giving back the earlier China-driven rally and watching policy headlines around biofuels. Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $10.62 3/4/bu, down 9 cents.
| CBOT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago | Contract | USD/mt | +/- |
| Wheat | March | 187.21 | -4.13 |
| Corn | March | 171.84 | -1.28 |
| Soybeans | January | 390.49 | -3.31 |
| Soymeal | January | 333.34 | -1.21 |
| EURONEXT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris | Contract | EUR/mt | +/- |
| Wheat | January | 185.75 | -2.00 |
| Corn | March | 185.25 | -0.75 |
| Rapeseed | February | 469.25 | -6.25 |
Key global drivers and headlines shaping the session
Biofuels stayed the macro overhang: the EPA indicated finalization of 2026 RVOs is not expected until Q1 next year, keeping veg-oil demand expectations—and crush economics—uncertain.
Processing fundamentals reinforced that sensitivity. NOPA reported a November crush of 216.041 million bushels (record for November) while soyoil stocks climbed to 1.513 billion pounds, a mix that matters more when renewable-fuels policy timing is unclear.
South America remained the weather fulcrum. Forecasts warn heavy central Brazil rains should help early development but may turn into excess moisture/local flooding risk by late December, while dryness risk is still monitored further south (southern Brazil/Argentinian Pampas).
Demand signals stayed active even as futures were headline-led. Weekly U.S. export inspections (week ending Dec. 11) showed corn 1.583 MMT, soybeans 796k tons, and wheat 488k tons, keeping export flow in focus (Mexico led corn; soy included China-bound volume).
Backlogged U.S. export sales data highlighted divergence by crop: soybeans 2.321 MMT, corn 1.843 MMT, and all wheat 369k tons for the week ending Nov. 20, with China the top soybean buyer and Japan leading corn purchases.
China-side soybean supply management stayed on the radar as Sinograin sold 323,000 MT of imported beans and scheduled another 550,000 MT auction, a flow-management signal that can influence near-term import pacing and basis tone.
Europe added a clear supply datapoint: France projected 2026 winter soft wheat area at 4.56 mln ha and winter rapeseed at 1.34 mln ha, while EU soft wheat exports since July 1 were noted at 10.5 MMT, lagging last year by 0.3 MMT—all relevant for Euronext direction and spreads.
Geopolitics and trade frictions stayed in the background but matter for risk premia. A Russian grain trader (Pallada) filed a lawsuit against Syria’s state grain company, underscoring counterparty/payment fragility in parts of the import complex, while China announced anti-dumping duties of up to 19.8% on certain EU pork products from Dec. 17, a reminder that trade measures can spill into broader ag sentiment (feed/protein demand expectations included).