Market Recap: Closing Prices from Thursday, July 24

Wheat

Wheat markets showed mixed movement at the close of Thursday's session. Chicago SRW wheat closed at $5.41½ per bushel, up 1 cent, while KC wheat led gains in the complex. Meanwhile, Minneapolis spring wheat ended the day 2 to 3 cents lower. The USDA’s weekly export sales report delivered a bullish surprise, recording a marketing-year high of 712,179 MT in total sales, led by buyers like Indonesia, Taiwan, and Mexico. Despite this strength, final data from the North Dakota crop tour, which pegged yields at 49.0 bpa, below last year’s average, remains a red flag for future supply tightness.

Corn

Corn futures continued to recover modestly, with the September 2025 contract closing up 3¼ cents at $4.01¾ per bushel. Export activity supported sentiment—particularly a corrected private sale of 135,000 MT to South Korea and another 284,196 MT to unknown destinations. Total corn export sales for the week reached 643,060 MT, nearly double last year’s same-week figure. However, some caution remains in the market, as weather in the U.S. Midwest remains mixed and cash prices have not fully caught up with futures gains.

Soybeans

Soybeans posted a quiet session, closing at $10.04¼ per bushel, down 1½ cents for the August 2025 contract. The USDA reported old crop sales of 160,872 MT, sharply lower week-over-week, though still 81.5% above last year’s level. New crop bookings fell to a 4-week low of 238,816 MT. Soyoil prices were higher on the day, up between 37 to 53 points, while soymeal dipped. Despite slow export momentum, Chinese demand signals and global trade dynamics continue to shape market outlook.

Key Global Headlines and Market Movers

Wheat Tour Ends with Subpar Yields in North Dakota

Final estimates from the Wheat Quality Council’s crop tour show North Dakota’s spring wheat yield at 49.0 bpa, below USDA expectations and last year’s level. While scouts noted healthy fields and good soil moisture, wider row spacing and fewer grain-bearing plants limited yield potential. These findings will likely continue to support wheat prices, particularly spring wheat.

Australia Lifts U.S. Beef Ban, Signaling Trade Reset

Australia officially lifted its long-standing ban on U.S. beef imports after a rigorous risk assessment, removing a major irritant in U.S.–Australia trade relations. The move is expected to strengthen bilateral trade and could set the stage for talks on easing tariffs on Australian steel and pharmaceuticals. This announcement may support wider U.S. agricultural exports by bolstering overall trade confidence.

Argentine Soymeal Sales to China Increase Again

For the second time in recent weeks, Chinese buyers inked a major soymeal deal with Argentina—30,000 MT at $365/ton, including freight. With U.S.–China tensions still simmering, China is clearly hedging its supply chains by leaning into cheaper South American alternatives, which could weigh on U.S. soymeal demand and pricing in the months ahead.

Brazil–China Bi-Oceanic Railway to Reshape Global Trade

Brazil and China are advancing a 5,000-km railway project that would slash transport costs for soybeans and other commodities between South America’s Atlantic and Pacific coasts. Once completed, this corridor will drastically improve logistics efficiency and may boost Brazil’s competitive edge over the U.S., especially in soybean exports to Asia.

Weather Risks Escalate Across U.S. and Black Sea Region

Heat and dryness persist across the U.S. Central and Southern Plains, and forecasts for the Black Sea region remain concerning for developing corn. Flash drought risk is rising in Ukraine and Southern Russia, threatening output and providing underlying support for corn and sunflower prices. In contrast, Northern U.S. Plains and parts of Canada continue to benefit from timely rains.

Argentina and Canada Maintain Wheat Outlooks Amid Mixed Weather

Argentina’s wheat production forecast was raised to 20.2 million tons, thanks to improved soil moisture in the Pampas. Meanwhile, Canada’s output remains stable at 35 million tons, with late July rains offering much-needed relief. These supply signals are generally price-neutral but carry weight in global balance sheets.

U.S. Advances Dicamba Reapproval, Easing Farmer Concerns

The EPA proposed reapproving dicamba herbicide use after a 2024 court ban. While concerns about drift damage persist, this move restores a key weed-control option for soybean and cotton farmers. This could eventually impact soybean acreage decisions and improve yield prospects, depending on adoption rates and regulatory details.

USDA Prepares to Launch New Export Reporting System

To enhance transparency and reliability, the USDA is rolling out a revamped export sales reporting system in October. After previous rollout failures, the agency is taking a cautious approach, including multiple stakeholder webinars and exporter training. This system will be vital in restoring trader confidence and ensuring timely access to export sales data moving forward.