U.S. Market Overview: Wednesday Opening Prices & Crop Conditions

Wheat

Wheat opened the Wednesday session on the Chicago Board of Trade at $5.41¾ per bushel for the September 2025 contract, continuing to show mild weakness after closing lower on Monday. Despite strong export inspection figures from last week (732,290 MT vs. 291,000 MT a year ago), traders remain cautious amid mixed conditions in the U.S. and abroad. The U.S. winter wheat harvest is now 73% complete—just ahead of average—but spring wheat is under pressure, rated only 52% good/excellent after a 2-point drop. The Brugler500 index also fell by 7 points to 338. Russian estimates for wheat output remain high at 88–90 million metric tons (MMT), but dry conditions in the Rostov region and shipping delays from the Black Sea have started to weigh on expectations.

Corn

Corn opened at $4.01¾ per bushel for the September 2025 contract on Wednesday, reflecting continued downward pressure as traders weigh solid U.S. progress against mixed export demand and global weather risks. Monday's USDA report showed 74% of the corn crop remains in good/excellent condition, with 56% silking and 14% in the dough stage. Despite a slight week-over-week drop in export inspections (983,625 MT vs. 1.3 MMT last week), year-to-date inspections are up nearly 29% versus 2024. European and Black Sea droughts continue to support regional prices, and Brazil’s production forecast was revised up to 136.3 MMT due to strong second-crop yields.

Soybeans

Soybeans kicked off Wednesday’s trade at $10.07¾ per bushel for the August 2025 contract, down from Monday’s close. The U.S. crop remains under mild stress with a condition rating of 68% good/excellent—down 2 points from the previous week. USDA inspections jumped to 365,000 MT last week, compared to only 151,000 MT the week before. However, bearish sentiment continues to dominate due to weak domestic crush margins, a flood of Brazilian supply, and record imports by China, whose downstream demand remains muted. The cmdtyView national cash price fell 10 cents to $9.76¼.

Global Market Drivers – What’s Moving the Market Today

A wide array of global developments is shaping sentiment in today’s grain trading session, ranging from Chinese investments in Africa to shifting weather conditions in key production zones.

China Secures Supply via Angola

Chinese state-owned conglomerate Citic Ltd. is making a strategic $250 million investment to develop large-scale soybean and corn farms in Angola, targeting 100,000 hectares of land. About 60% of the production is earmarked for Chinese imports, as Beijing seeks to reduce its reliance on U.S. supplies amid ongoing trade tensions.

Russia’s New Crop Hits the Market

Grain from Russia’s new harvest has started entering the market, with mixed expectations. While Stavropol has produced a strong 8.5 MMT crop, drought has reduced forecasts in the Rostov region by 30%. Traders report that the flow of new grain into terminals is picking up, but loadings at Black Sea ports remain disrupted. The Agriculture Ministry maintains its optimistic 135 MMT grain forecast, including 90 MMT of wheat.

Brazil’s Corn Output Revised Up

AgRural revised Brazil’s total corn output estimate for 2024/25 to 136.3 MMT, up from 130.6 MMT, citing better-than-expected yields in the winter crop. As of July 17, 55% of the second-corn areas had been harvested in the center-south region. However, this is still lagging compared to 82% at the same time last year.

Palm Oil Prices Supported by Indian Demand and U.S. Soy Oil

Palm oil prices are expected to remain strong, trading between 4,100 and 4,300 ringgit per ton. The demand spike is driven by Indian restocking ahead of Diwali and strong U.S. soybean oil prices, which are lifting the competitiveness of Malaysian palm exports. U.S. soy oil prices are projected to stay elevated as over 50% of output shifts toward biodiesel.

EU Corn Faces Yield Pressure

The EU’s MARS report highlighted positive yield expectations for Romania, Bulgaria, France, and Spain but warned of risks in Italy and Turkey due to recent heat. The spread of crop disease in Finland and pests in Germany are additional concerns. Corn yields are expected to trend lower in affected regions.

Iraq’s Wheat Surplus Strengthens Food Security

Iraq harvested over 5 MMT of wheat, enough to meet its domestic ration program through 2026. With reserves reaching 6.5 MMT, the country avoided wheat imports for the third consecutive year. Investments in irrigation and storage infrastructure have paid off, with storage capacity increasing by 2 MMT over the past two years.

India Expands Corn and Rice Acreage

Indian farmers increased their corn sowing by 15.4% year-over-year to 7.12 million hectares, while rice acreage jumped by over 12%. The expansion is attributed to favorable monsoon rains, which have been 6% above average so far. This shift may influence global corn and rice trade patterns in the coming months.

U.S. Weekly Export Snapshot

The USDA's weekly inspection data revealed 984,000 MT of corn, 365,000 MT of soybeans, and 732,000 MT of wheat inspected for export. Mexico was the largest buyer of corn, Germany took the lead in soybean imports, and Nigeria topped the list for wheat. This points to a globally diverse demand base, despite ongoing logistical and geopolitical uncertainties.