Wheat: Lower Close Despite Export Optimism

Chicago wheat futures ended Monday lower, with the September 2025 contract closing at $5.42¼ per bushel, down 4 cents. This weakness came even as USDA weekly export inspections reported a notable 732,290 metric tons (MT) of wheat inspected—well above both last week and the same period in 2024. While winter wheat harvest is 73% complete—just ahead of average—the spring crop faced a 2% condition drop, now rated 52% good/excellent. The Brugler500 index also fell 7 points to 338. Despite Bangladesh signing a deal to import 700,000 MT annually from the U.S. for five years, the market remained subdued, awaiting insights from this week’s Wheat Quality Council Tour.

Corn: Mild Drop as Supply Rises But Drought Lingers

Corn futures also slipped Monday, with September 2025 contracts closing at $4.03¾ per bushel, down 4¾ cents. Export inspections came in at 983,625 MT—slightly down from last week but still 28.9% higher YTD compared to 2024. USDA data showed 56% of the U.S. crop was silking, while 14% had reached dough stage, with steady condition ratings (74% gd/ex). Despite U.S. strength, European and Black Sea drought conditions pushed regional prices upward. Globally, corn supplies have increased thanks to Brazil and the U.S., but consumption is expected to outpace production in 2025/26, potentially tightening stocks.

Soybeans: Prices Decline Amid Weak Sentiment

Soybeans were the weakest performer, with August 2025 contracts closing at $10.15 per bushel, down 12¾ cents. The U.S. crop is showing signs of stress, with conditions rated 68% good/excellent, a 2% decline from the prior week. Export inspections were reported at 364,990 MT, significantly higher than last week’s revised 151,346 MT. However, rising inventories—driven by a flood of Brazilian beans and lackluster domestic demand—kept market sentiment bearish. China imported a record 12.26 million MT of soybeans in June, but storage issues and slow downstream demand are prompting cautious buying behavior.

Global Market Movers

China Breaks Soybean Import Records

Driven by Brazil’s bumper harvest and U.S.-China trade tensions, China imported 12.26 million MT of soybeans in June—up 9.2% YoY. Despite lower imports from Argentina, China saw 33% higher soybean arrivals from the U.S. in the first half of 2025. However, a surge in soymeal inventories due to sluggish downstream demand has weakened local prices.

Paraguay Faces Export Woes

Paraguayan soybean exports fell by 1.3 million tons in H1 2025 compared to last year, slashing revenue by $659.5 million. The country now forecasts a weaker 2025 harvest amid potential drought, contributing to regional supply tightening.

US Corn Outlook Positive, Europe Faces Drought

Favorable U.S. growing conditions are boosting global corn supply and pressuring prices. Meanwhile, severe drought in Europe and parts of the Black Sea is creating uncertainty and lifting local corn prices, despite falling U.S. futures.

Bearish Soybean Outlook Continues

USDA reports and positive vegetation indices suggest decent U.S. yield potential, but bearish sentiment dominates due to tepid demand and concerns over U.S.-China trade relations. Potential weather stress in late July–early August remains the wildcard.

Soy Oil Prices Surge on Demand

International and domestic soy oil prices climbed, reaching their highest level since October 2023. Demand for biodiesel, especially in Brazil and the U.S., and Argentina’s export taxes are redirecting global buyers to these markets. USDA forecasts U.S. soy oil consumption to jump 10.5% in 2025/26.

Cepea Reports Corn Price Stabilization in Brazil

Brazilian corn prices have stabilized in some regions, notably Sorriso and Rio Verde, where prices rose 5% and 2%. This follows limited trading activity from sellers, slower second-crop harvest progress, and rising freight costs.

Europe & Black Sea Weather Remains Mixed

Western Europe received beneficial rainfall over the weekend, supporting summer crops but potentially delaying wheat harvest. Conversely, southeastern Black Sea regions are still dry, jeopardizing corn development while aiding wheat harvesting.

Fertilizer Costs Rising in the Black Sea

Black Sea urea nitrogen fertilizer rose by 9.38% last week, with prices up 25.7% over the past month. Natural gas price increases and strong demand are lifting input costs—potentially translating into higher future production expenses for farmers.