Wheat

The September 2025 wheat contract in Chicago opened Monday's trading at $5.31½ per bushel, showing continued softness in the market. Despite Algeria issuing a major wheat tender—largely serviced by Black Sea origins—U.S. wheat prices remain under pressure due to heavy global supplies and competitive European pricing. Market participants remain cautious, monitoring shipping logistics, as well as quality outcomes from ongoing harvests in France and the Black Sea. This comes against the backdrop of SovEcon's steady Russian wheat forecast and FranceAgriMer’s projected 14.32 million tons of wheat exports.

Corn

Chicago corn futures for the September 2025 contract opened the day at $4.00¼ per bushel. Corn markets are facing mixed fundamentals: strong ethanol-linked demand and rising global consumption as noted by the IGC, countered by easing U.S. weather conditions. While Safrinha harvest progress in Brazil adds supply pressure, the latest weekly USDA export report revealed robust corn sales, especially from Latin America. Attention is increasingly shifting to new-crop demand as traders monitor crop development in the U.S. Corn Belt amid intermittent rains and expectations of late July heatwaves.

Soybeans

Soybean futures opened Monday at $10.11¼ per bushel for the September 2025 contract, slightly down from the previous session but still supported by firm demand and tight global stocks. The USDA reported strong crush figures and another confirmed sale to China, keeping the market buoyant. Soymeal and soyoil values remain firm, helped by higher Chinese import forecasts and Indonesia’s ongoing shift to B50 biodiesel blending, which could divert demand from palm oil to other vegetable oils such as soybean and rapeseed oil.

Key Global Developments Driving Today’s Grain Market

The global wheat landscape saw a dramatic shift as Ukrainian feed wheat offers disappeared from the market. Initial harvest results indicate better-than-expected protein content, making much of the wheat unsuitable for feed use and resulting in a supply squeeze. FOB prices rose sharply to $210 per ton, while CPT offers within Ukraine aligned with those export values. Traders now anticipate more blending between different quality classes due to the lack of low-grade wheat, with similar concerns echoing in Bulgaria and Romania.

Algeria launched a massive international wheat tender for more than 1 million tons, once again favoring Black Sea suppliers. This highlights the region’s dominant role in meeting North African demand, even as internal disruptions—ranging from weather to logistics—persist. The tender is expected to set a short-term floor for export pricing in the region, and the volume indicates sustained strategic demand amid supply volatility.

France’s wheat export ambitions were reaffirmed by FranceAgriMer, projecting a 38% annual rise in 2025. Notably, shipments outside the EU are expected to more than double, positioning France to capitalize on potential supply issues in Canada and Ukraine. The optimism contrasts with mounting concern over the condition of France’s corn crops, which continue to suffer from prolonged drought and heat stress.

Russia’s wheat outlook remains broadly stable, with SovEcon maintaining its production forecast at 83.6 million tons. Yet, drought in southern regions and logistical hurdles like low river levels continue to limit full export reliability. Barley projections were increased, but corn expectations remain unchanged, keeping the spotlight on wheat as Russia’s key export engine.

In the U.S., Mississippi River grain shipments fell significantly this week to 554,000 tons, down from 781,000 tons the week prior. Barge rates in St. Louis also surged, raising transportation costs at a time when export competitiveness is crucial. This logistical strain adds uncertainty, especially for U.S. corn and soybean flows, which are still trying to keep pace with strong Latin American exports.

Australia and China are moving toward reopening canola trade after years of suspension. Five test shipments totaling up to 250,000 tons have been greenlit, potentially rebalancing the rapeseed oil market and offering relief to a tight vegetable oil sector strained by Canada–China trade tensions and insufficient EU supply.

Indonesia’s potential move to a B50 biodiesel mandate continues to generate ripple effects across the oilseed complex. Such a policy would divert an estimated 3 million tons of palm oil to domestic use, tightening export supply and boosting prices for alternative oils like soybean and rapeseed. This shift comes as the U.S. also prepares to implement new tariffs on palm oil, adding a geopolitical layer to the market realignment.

On the currency and demand front, Mexico and Venezuela emerged as top U.S. wheat buyers in the latest USDA report. This marks a notable shift in export geography as Latin American demand strengthens, aided by a relatively weaker U.S. dollar. With high-protein wheat supplies tightening globally, the emergence of non-traditional buyers could rewire short-term demand flows and reshape bidding dynamics in upcoming tenders.