Major Crop Trends at the Start of Friday’s Session (Chicago, September 2025 Contracts)
Wheat
The September 2025 wheat contract in Chicago opened Friday’s trading at $5.33½ per bushel, up 9½ cents following a 7¾ cent drop the previous day. Early gains were supported by a weakening U.S. dollar and speculative movement in Kansas City wheat. However, the market remains pressured by abundant Northern Hemisphere supply. The USDA reported wheat export sales totaling 494,400 tons last week, led by Mexico and Venezuela.
Corn
The September 2025 corn contract started the session at $4.02 per bushel—up 5¾ cents after a 3¼ cent loss on Thursday. The USDA reported net sales of only 97,600 tons for the old crop—this marketing year’s lowest level and below expectations. New crop sales were 565,900 tons. Ongoing rains in key Midwest areas and a hot weather forecast for late July are influencing yield expectations.
Soybeans
Soybean futures opened Friday’s session with gains of 10¾ cents, reaching $10.21½ per bushel, following an 8-cent rise the previous day. The USDA reported sales of 271,900 tons of old crop and 529,600 tons of new crop soybeans. Soybean oil surged by 147 points, driven by a $1.21/barrel increase in crude oil. Abiove maintained its Brazilian soybean crop forecast at 169.7 MMT and raised export expectations by 0.8 MMT.
Key Global Drivers Shaping Markets
China's expectations for a strong autumn grain harvest—accounting for about 75% of its annual output—boosted confidence in solid yields. Although some areas faced drought, the Ministry of Agriculture reported favorable agro-meteorological conditions and improved farming techniques.
Meanwhile, the International Grains Council (IGC) cut its global corn stock forecast for the 2025/26 season from 282 to 278 million tons, citing rising consumption. This puts pressure on the supply-demand balance and increases market volatility.
In Germany, although the grain harvest is expected to rise by 7% compared to 2024, recent heatwaves have caused irreparable damage to part of the corn acreage. The farmers’ union reported that rain has also delayed harvests in some regions.
France’s wheat harvest is progressing rapidly, reaching 71% by July 14—well ahead of last year’s pace. However, the condition of the corn crop has deteriorated due to a recent heat and dry spell, which intensified soil drought.
Canada is witnessing a wide range of crop conditions, from “horrible” to “excellent.” Durum wheat and lentils have been severely impacted by drought, leading to lower expected yields. In contrast, spring wheat and canola are thriving in northern and eastern regions, aided by adequate moisture and cooler temperatures.
In the U.S., drought continues to ease—corn-growing areas under drought fell to 9%, and soybean areas to 7%. This improves prospects for strong yields, particularly under the current favorable Midwest weather.
Grain shipments on the Mississippi River dropped to 554,000 tons during the week, down sharply from 781,000 tons the previous week. Barge rates in St. Louis rose by $2.71/ton. The reduced volumes suggest logistical constraints that could impact prices.
Indonesia is considering a shift to a 50% biofuel mandate (B50), which would raise domestic palm oil consumption by 3 million tons and reduce exports. This move could significantly influence the vegetable oil market, especially as a response to new U.S. tariffs.