Wheat

Chicago wheat futures ended Monday’s trading session under renewed pressure, with the July 2025 SRW contract closing at $5.11¾ per bushel. The market struggled to maintain momentum despite international buying interest. The combination of firm global supply projections—especially with Russia’s IKAR maintaining an output estimate of 84.5 million tons—and subdued U.S. export sales continued to weigh on sentiment. Meanwhile, Egypt's state purchasing body confirmed weekend deals for wheat from a range of origins, including Russia and Bulgaria, reinforcing the dominance of Black Sea exporters. Dry weather in Northern and Eastern Europe also loomed over the market but failed to provide strong bullish support amid ample global stocks confirmed by the International Grains Council (IGC).

Corn

Corn futures for July 2025 settled at $4.01¾ per bushel, down slightly as the market reacted to softer export demand and updated acreage data. USDA's highly anticipated Acreage Report, released late Monday, pegged U.S. corn planting at 91.5 million acres—down from previous estimates and below analyst expectations. This surprise provided some late-session support, although broader weakness prevailed due to firm South American production estimates. While Brazilian corn remained competitively priced, logistical bottlenecks at key ports raised concerns over shipment delays. U.S. export sales last week also failed to impress, contributing to the overall bearish tone in the market.

Soybeans

Soybean futures finished Monday’s session with the July 2025 contract closing at $10.16¾ per bushel. The USDA Acreage Report revealed U.S. soybean planted area at 86.1 million acres, above the expected 83.5 million, pressuring prices further. Export sales remained moderate, while concerns over Chinese import demand intensified after soymeal prices continued to fall on the Dalian Exchange. Despite solid Brazilian production outlooks, logistical constraints persist, particularly in port congestion. Meanwhile, Argentina's soy export activity is projected to decline in July due to recent tax adjustments, leaving global buyers to diversify sourcing from Brazil and the U.S.

Global Market Developments

The USDA’s Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports were the most awaited publications to start the week. Corn acreage came in at 91.5 million acres—lower than expected—while soybean planting was higher than consensus at 86.1 million acres. These figures are likely to influence futures trends throughout the week, especially with weather concerns mounting across key U.S. production zones.

South Korea’s Feed Industry Association secured 65,000 tons of optional-origin corn for late October delivery, reaffirming Asia’s continued demand for feed grains amid regional price volatility. The deal also illustrates the growing strength of South American and Black Sea-origin corn in global trade.

China’s internal soymeal prices slipped again, surprising traders given seasonal demand patterns. Declining crush margins and rising soybean port inventories signal near-term import softness. Traders are increasingly cautious, anticipating subdued purchases from China unless new price incentives emerge.

Brazil’s export infrastructure continued to face hurdles. Port congestion in Santos and Paranaguá, combined with intermittent truck strikes, disrupted smooth flow of grains. While prices held firm over the weekend, analysts warn that sustained disruptions could push some buyers to U.S. Gulf or PNW ports in the coming weeks.

Argentina's grain sector is adjusting to newly implemented tax changes. After a record June in soybean exports, a significant pullback is expected in July, tightening soymeal supply globally. Exporters now face stiffer margins under the revised tax framework, potentially slowing shipments in the short term.

Russia extended its aggressive pricing policy on wheat, continuing to offer 12.5% protein wheat below $200 per ton FOB. This price advantage, coupled with high output expectations, cements Russia’s leading role in global tenders. However, dryness in Russian and Ukrainian regions remains a key risk to monitor.

Weather conditions across Europe showed a mixed outlook. While Northern and Central Europe, including Germany and Poland, faced stress from prolonged droughts, southern countries like Spain and Italy reported more favorable growing conditions. This regional divide is complicating EU-wide crop assessments.

Egypt’s wheat procurement efforts remained diversified. Contracts finalized over the weekend for 470,000 tons from sources including Russia, Romania, France, and Bulgaria underscore Cairo’s strategy to mitigate geopolitical and weather-related risks. The country remains a key demand center for Black Sea grain flows.

The IGC kept its global wheat production estimate unchanged at 808 million tons, reinforcing supply security. Corn output was slightly revised downward due to lower carryout in some regions. Soybean forecasts held steady, but trade eyes remain on biodiesel-linked demand trends in Southeast Asia and China’s uncertain pace of purchases.

Logistical data from the U.S. Mississippi River corridor showed soybean barge volumes stable, while corn volumes dipped. Freight rates rose slightly in St. Louis, indicating resilient transport demand ahead of the Independence Day shipping rush.

Indonesia revised its palm oil exports for April down to 1.78 million tons, a sharp drop from March. Rising stocks and falling local consumption highlight persistent biodiesel demand challenges—factors that continue to influence global vegetable oil prices and trade flows.

Traders remain alert to potential policy shifts in major importing countries. Rising food price inflation in China, India, and Bangladesh has prompted governments to assess trade and subsidy interventions. Any changes to tariffs, price controls, or export regulations could realign global grain and oilseed flows in the coming weeks.