U.S. Grain Futures Closing Prices – Thursday, March 13, 2025

Wheat futures ended the session higher across all major exchanges. Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat gained 8 to 9 cents, Kansas City Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat led the gains with a 13 to 15-cent increase, and Minneapolis Spring Wheat (HRS) was up 9 to 10 cents at the close. The May 25 CBOT Wheat contract settled at $5.62 ½ per bushel, up 8 ½ cents. Strong export sales data provided support, with the USDA reporting weekly wheat export bookings at 783,416 metric tons (MT)—the second-largest purchase volume this marketing year.

Corn futures managed to recover some of Wednesday's losses, with most contracts closing 4 to 5 cents higher. The May 25 CBOT Corn contract settled at $4.65 ¼ per bushel, up 4 ½ cents. The USDA's weekly export sales report showed a three-week high of 967,348 MT in corn sales, although still 24.6% lower than the same week last year. Mexico was the largest buyer with 431,600 MT, followed by Japan. Meanwhile, the Rosario Grains Exchange cut Argentina's corn production estimate by 1.5 million MT to 44.5 million MT, further supporting the market.

Soybean futures bounced back on Thursday, closing 5 to 11 cents higher across contracts. The May 25 CBOT Soybean contract finished at $10.10 ¾ per bushel, up 10 ¼ cents. USDA reported strong soybean export sales of 751,651 MT, exceeding trade estimates and hitting a seven-week high. China was the top buyer with 208,300 MT, followed by Indonesia. However, the Rosario Grains Exchange trimmed Argentina’s soybean production estimate by 1 million MT to 46.5 million MT, citing continued drought concerns.

Key Global Market Developments Impacting Grain Prices

Canada is set to plant fewer acres of canola this year as global trade tensions weigh on demand. Canola planting is expected to decline by 1.7% to 21.6 million acres, with China and the U.S. imposing tariffs on Canadian canola meal and oil. Prices have continued to decline by 3.6% on Wednesday, with a weekly drop of 11% as uncertainty grips the oilseed market.

The European Union introduced retaliatory tariffs targeting U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans from Louisiana and beef from Nebraska and Kansas. Canada also responded by imposing tariffs on $21 billion worth of U.S. goods, further escalating trade tensions that could impact future grain exports.

The U.S. ethanol market remains under pressure, with weekly ethanol production declining by 31,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.062 million bpd. Ethanol stocks rose to 27.376 million barrels, slightly above expectations, which may limit corn demand in the short term.

Ukraine reported a 4.5% decline in total grain exports this season, with corn exports falling 9% year-over-year, while wheat shipments rose by 3%. The Odesa port attack by Russian forces on Wednesday further disrupted grain trade, damaging export infrastructure and killing four Syrian sailors aboard a bulk carrier bound for Algeria. Ukrainian officials warned that Russia is escalating its efforts to restrict Ukrainian grain exports while expanding its own market share.

Argentina’s soybean and corn production forecasts were revised downward, with soybean output cut to 46.5 million MT and corn production reduced to 44.5 million MT. Drought conditions in the Pampas region have continued to reduce yield potential, despite recent late-season rains.

China is preparing for record soybean imports in the second quarter of 2025, with projections indicating 31.3 million MT, a 4.6% increase from last year. However, delays in Brazil’s harvest and slow customs clearance have created a short-term supply squeeze, forcing some processors to halt operations due to limited soybean availability.

France reduced its soft wheat export forecast by 1.7%, now expecting 9.58 million MT for the 2024-25 season. The decline is mainly due to a 6% drop in non-EU wheat sales, which are also 69% lower compared to last year. Meanwhile, France's total wheat export commitments have fallen 42% year-over-year.

Ukraine’s grain corridor operations remain at risk, with over 113 Russian attacks recorded on port and agricultural infrastructure in the Odesa region since last year. Despite this, Ukraine has successfully exported 93.3 million MT of grain via its Black Sea trade corridor since it resumed operations in late 2023.

Argentina’s nationwide oilseed worker strike was called off after the government issued a 15-day conciliation order, but workers at Vicentin, a bankrupt agribusiness firm, are continuing their strike over unpaid wages. This ongoing labor dispute threatens soybean meal and oil exports, which are crucial for global supply chains.

Paraguay’s corn harvest has begun, with USDA maintaining its 2024-25 production estimate at 5.2 million MT. Favorable weather conditions are supporting early harvest operations, though analysts are monitoring the risk of dry conditions later in March.

China is on track for a record wheat harvest, with total production forecast at 141.5 million MT. Recent rains have boosted soil moisture, supporting crop development, and the latest projections indicate no immediate risks to winter wheat production.

India’s wheat production estimate remains unchanged at 111.6 million MT, as crops move through their maturation phase. Vegetation indexes suggest healthy growth, with key wheat-producing states Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Punjab showing stronger-than-average crop conditions.

Market Outlook for Today’s Trading Session

With trade tensions escalating, weather uncertainties persisting, and shifting export dynamics, market volatility is expected to remain high. Traders will closely monitor U.S. export sales data, developments in the Argentina labor dispute, and any further escalations in Black Sea geopolitical tensions. Additionally, soybean traders will watch for further updates on China's import demand, while corn and wheat futures may react to the latest supply forecasts from key global producers.

As global demand concerns continue to shape market sentiment, grain prices remain susceptible to sharp moves in today’s trading session.