Wheat closed the day on a strong note, as May 2025 CBOT Wheat ended at $5.62 1/2 per bushel, up 11 1/4 cents. The rally was driven by concerns over Russian export policies, as well as positioning ahead of the USDA’s upcoming supply and demand report. The market reacted to Russia’s potential export restrictions should the 2025 harvest fall below expectations. Winter wheat conditions in the U.S. were mixed, with declining ratings in Kansas and Texas adding support to prices. However, wheat export shipments from the U.S. were down significantly, with the USDA reporting just 216,713 metric tons shipped, a 44.65% drop from the previous week.

Corn continued to show resilience, supported by a strong U.S. export report and pre-report positioning. May 2025 Corn closed at $4.72 per bushel, up 2 3/4 cents. The USDA reported a private export sale of 126,000 metric tons to Japan, while weekly export inspections showed 1.819 million metric tons (71.64 million bushels) shipped, up 34.54% from the previous week and 56.04% above last year’s level. Analysts expect the USDA’s March report to show a slight reduction in U.S. corn ending stocks, with Argentina’s production forecast trimmed to 49 million metric tons due to previous weather challenges.

Soybeans came under pressure, weighed down by weakness in the soybean oil market and China’s retaliatory tariffs on Canadian agricultural products. May 2025 Soybeans closed at $10.14 per bushel, down 11 cents. China’s new tariffs on rapeseed oil imports caused soybean oil futures to tumble, dragging the overall soybean complex lower. The USDA reported a 195,000-metric-ton soybean export sale to an unknown destination, but this was not enough to offset the bearish tone. Weekly soybean export inspections totaled 844,218 metric tons (31.02 million bushels), a 20.6% increase from the previous week. The Brazilian soybean harvest reached 61% completion, ahead of last year’s pace of 55% for the same week.

Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, hinted at potential grain export restrictions should its 2025 harvest come in below expectations. SovEcon estimates the Russian 2025 harvest could be the lowest since 2021, raising concerns that global wheat stockpiles could shrink to a nine-year low by July. This speculation contributed to Monday’s wheat price gains.

The USDA reported a steep decline in U.S. wheat export shipments, with only 216,713 metric tons shipped, down 44.65% from last week and less than half of last year’s volume. Mexico was the leading buyer, taking 139,200 metric tons. This sharp drop in shipments poses challenges for U.S. wheat exporters in maintaining competitiveness.

China announced new retaliatory tariffs on imports of rapeseed oil, pork, and seafood from Canada in response to Canada’s tariffs on Chinese goods. The measures, which include a 100% tariff on rapeseed oil and a 25% tariff on pork, will take effect on March 20. These tariffs could disrupt global oilseed trade, influencing soybean oil and canola markets.

Brazilian soybean export premiums surged 70% this week as increased Chinese demand offset the impact of heightened U.S.-China trade tensions. At Paranaguá port, soybean export premiums reached 85 cents per bushel for March shipment, the highest since 2022.

Heavy rainfall in Argentina improved soil moisture conditions, helping offset earlier drought damage. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintained its soybean production estimate at 49.6 million metric tons and corn at 49 million metric tons.

A Brazilian court temporarily suspended a 1.8% grain export tax in Maranhão state, providing relief for soybean and corn exporters. The tax was challenged on constitutional grounds, with a final ruling expected in the coming weeks.

Malaysia’s palm oil stockpiles dropped 4.3% in February, reaching their lowest level since April 2023, though still higher than analysts' expectations. This could impact global vegetable oil markets, influencing soy oil demand.

Preliminary open interest changes from March 7 showed SRW Wheat up 2,260 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,387, Corn up 698, and Soybeans down 6,596. The decline in soybean open interest signals speculative traders exiting positions amid trade uncertainty.

Russia’s wheat export duty is set to rise by 12.2% to 2,444.4 rubles per metric ton on March 12, reflecting rising domestic concerns over supply. Duties on barley and corn exports are also increasing, tightening global grain availability.

Brazilian soybean sales for the 2024/25 season reached 42.4% as of March 7, up from 36.6% last year. The fast sales pace highlights strong demand from China, reinforcing Brazil’s dominance in the soybean export market.

A large storm system is forecasted for later this week, potentially bringing severe weather, heavy precipitation, and strong winds to the U.S. Midwest, Central, and Southern Plains. This could improve soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting but may also bring destructive weather.

Agribrasil, a leading Brazilian grain trader, is reportedly in talks with potential investors, including Solaris Commodities (Dubai) and Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company (SALIC). A potential acquisition could bolster Brazil’s grain export sector amid rising global trade tensions.

Monday’s grain market reflected a mix of bullish and bearish forces, with wheat rallying, corn finding support from exports, and soybeans pressured by weak oilseed demand. Key global developments, including Russia’s export uncertainty, China’s tariff measures, and shifting Brazilian trade dynamics, continue to shape the outlook for the coming weeks. Traders will be closely watching Tuesday’s USDA report, which could bring further market-moving insights on global supply and demand trends.