The EUR/USD currency pair rose to 1.0307. The price of US WTI light crude oil declined to $78.68 per barrel.

Oil prices fell on Thursday despite support from supply concerns amid Washington’s sanctions against Russia, a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude oil inventories, and improving global demand prospects. U.S. crude oil inventories fell last week to their lowest level since April 2022 as exports increased and imports declined, the EIA reported on Wednesday. That same day, the Biden administration imposed hundreds of additional sanctions targeting Russia’s military-industrial complex and sanction evasion schemes.

In the first two weeks of 2025, global demand for oil increased by 1.2 million barrels per day compared to the same period the previous year. Analysts expect demand to rise by 1.4 million barrels per day on an annual basis in the coming weeks, driven by increased tourism activity in India and travel to China for the local New Year celebrations at the end of January.

Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago fell by 9 1/2 cents to $5.37 1/2 per bushel. Wheat futures declined in both Chicago and Paris. For the week ending January 9, 2025, U.S. wheat export sales totaled 513,424 tons (compared to 111,309 tons the previous week and 707,632 tons a year ago). Export commitments reached 17.53 million tons (up from 16.10 million), weekly exports stood at 196,545 tons (down from 414,265 and 244,889), and total exports since the beginning of the season amounted to 12.56 million tons (compared to 10.19 million). Japan purchased 132,888 tons of wheat from the United States, Canada, and Australia.

In its January report, the IGC projected global grain production for 2024/25 at 2,305 million tons (down from 2,311 million in November and 2,309 million in 2023/24), with consumption estimated at 2,335 million tons (compared to 2,332 and 2,320). The global wheat production for the season is expected to be 796 million tons, with consumption at 805 million tons.

According to SovEcon, Russia’s wheat exports in January are forecasted at 1.8–2.2 million tons (compared to 3.6 million in January 2024). Ukraine's wheat exports are expected to reach 0.8 million tons (down from 1.6 million). As of December 1, 2024, wheat stocks in Russia stood at 18.7 million tons (compared to 24.8 million a year earlier). By the end of the season, ending stocks are expected to reach 10 million tons (with 6.3 million held by market entities and 3.7 million in state reserves), compared to 20.2 million tons (16 + 4.2) a year earlier. Ukraine's ending stocks are projected at 0.8 million tons (compared to 1.2 million for 2023/24 and 4.2 million for 2022/23). SovEcon estimates Russia’s total wheat exports for the season at 43.7 million tons (compared to 46 million in USDA forecasts), while Ukraine’s exports are projected at 16.1 million tons (matching USDA estimates). Since the start of the season, Russia has exported 30.5 million tons of wheat, and Ukraine has exported 10.1 million tons. The remaining exportable volumes stand at 13.2 million tons for Russia and 6 million tons for Ukraine, compared to 26.7 million tons and 10.23 million tons, respectively, at the same time last year—a drastic difference, as the two countries now have a combined 19.2 million tons left for export, compared to 36.93 million tons a year ago.

Yesterday, Chicago March corn futures declined by 4 1/4 cents to $4.74 1/2 per bushel. Corn futures declined in both Chicago and Paris. The USDA reported a private export sale of 135,000 tons of corn to Taiwan. U.S. weekly corn export sales amounted to 1,024,234 tons (compared to 444,950 and 1,251,109 in previous reports), export commitments reached 40.27 million tons (compared to 31.53 million), weekly exports were 1,484,287 tons (up from 863,730 and 1,000,420), and total exports for the season stood at 18.10 million tons (compared to 14.28 million). The IGC projects global corn production for 2024/25 at 1,219 million tons (down from 1,225 million in November and 1,231 million in 2023/24), with consumption forecasted at 1,239 million tons (up from 1,235 and 1,226). This represents a significant tightening of the global corn balance—lower production and higher consumption. Algeria is looking to purchase 240,000 tons of corn.

Yesterday, CBOT March soybean futures decreased by 23 3/4 cents to $10.19 per bushel. The soybean complex declined in Chicago, rapeseed futures fell in Paris, while canola futures in Canada rose. The USDA reported a private export sale of 132,000 tons of soybeans to China. U.S. weekly soybean export sales reached 569,142 tons (compared to 219,275 and 781,277), export commitments totaled 40.89 million tons (compared to 37.39 million), weekly exports stood at 1,475,815 tons (down from 1,510,752 and 1,670,720), and total exports for the season reached 31.37 million tons (compared to 25.29 million). Weekly soymeal sales were 145,548 tons, while soyoil sales were 57,299 tons. Overall, export sales for the three major crops were at moderate levels for the week.

The IGC projects global soybean production for 2024/25 at 420 million tons (up from 419 million in November and 396 million in 2023/24), with consumption estimated at 408 million tons (unchanged from November, up from 385 million in 2023/24), and ending stocks at 84 million tons (up from 82 million and 73 million). The soybean balance is loosening, which will likely weigh on prices at least until early September. Agriconsult forecasts a record soybean production in Brazil of 172.3 million tons.

Drier weather and lower temperatures are expected in the United States until the end of the month. Markets declined due to the upcoming inauguration of the new U.S. president and potential changes in trade policy affecting the country’s trade partners. Fear is prevailing in the market.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center indicates that La Niña has developed and has a 59% chance of persisting until the end of April. However, the phenomenon is relatively weak. Estimates of corn and soybean crop conditions in Argentina have deteriorated rapidly over the past two weeks due to dry weather. Rainfall is expected in the coming days and next week, but its volume will determine its effectiveness.