The EUR/USD currency pair fell to 1.0314, while the price of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dropped to $73.32 per barrel.

In 2025, the Federal Reserve (FED) is expected to act cautiously regarding interest rates, according to minutes from the institution's last meeting in December. The minutes repeatedly highlight that inflation is far from being under control, but FED members also expressed concerns about how tariff and immigration policies could impact the economy.

In November, annual inflation in the United States accelerated to 2.4%. However, the FED stated that they are in no rush to lower interest rates and prefer to observe whether this inflation growth is sustainable or a temporary phenomenon. Based on the published document, analysts predict that the FED, which functions as the central bank of the United States, will lower interest rates twice during the year.

Forecasts also indicate that the labor market is likely to remain stable but will continue to be closely monitored. Consumer spending remains high, further fueling inflation.

Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago fell by 6 1/4 cents to $5.36 1/4 per bushel. Wheat futures in Chicago declined, while futures in Paris were volatile. The USDA reported several private purchases of U.S.-origin wheat by South Korean importers, totaling 125,000 tons, with at least 60,000 tons priced slightly below 250 USD/ton C&F. The USDA is expected to report winter wheat acreage on Friday at 33.366 million acres (-24,000 compared to last year), including 23.73 million acres for HRW, 6.14 million acres for SRW, and 3.49 million acres for white wheat. Weekly U.S. wheat export sales will also be published Friday due to today being a public holiday in the United States. Between July 1, 2024, and January 8, 2025, Ukraine exported 22.442 million tons of grain (19.422 million tons a year earlier), including 0.705 million tons in January (1.03 million last January). Exports included 9.977 million tons of wheat (0.209 in January), 1.976 million tons of barley (8,000 tons), and 10.162 million tons of corn (0.487 in January). Exports remain weaker than the previous season, similar to December. Jordan is seeking to purchase 120,000 tons of milling wheat.

CBOT March corn futures decreased by 4 cents to $4.54 per bushel. Corn futures in Chicago declined, while futures in Paris were mixed. In the week ending January 3, 2025, U.S. ethanol production reached 1.102 million barrels per day (-9,000 barrels per day from the previous week). Stocks continued to rise, increasing by 509,000 barrels for the week (+1.512 million barrels over the last three weeks) to 24.148 million barrels. Refinery consumption fell by 80,000 barrels per day to 779,000 barrels per day, while exports rose by 56,000 barrels per day to 155,000 barrels. Analysts expect the USDA's January report to show a reduction in US corn yield estimates for 2024 by 0.4 bushels/acre to 182.7 bushels/acre. Three South Korean companies purchased a total of 337,000 tons of corn from various origins. Anec forecasts Brazil's January corn exports at 2.9 million tons (-17.1% from January 2024). Brazil's first corn crop is in almost excellent condition, while the second crop is rated as excellent.

Chicago March soybean futures declined by 2 3/4 cents to $9.94 1/2 per bushel. The USDA reported a private export sale of 120,000 tons of soybeans to an undisclosed destination. The USDA's January report is expected to lower U.S. soybean yield estimates by 0.1 bushels/acre to 51.6 bushels/acre, with production falling to 121.1 million tons. Anec estimates Brazil's January soybean exports at 1.7 million tons (-30%). For 2025, Brazil's soybean exports are projected to exceed 108 million tons, potentially creating significant logistical challenges. In Brazil and Argentina, rising temperatures are increasing plant stress. However, trend-line yields are still possible if good rainfall occurs by late February. Currently, Brazil's soybean crops are in very good condition. Indonesian authorities are tightening controls on the export of used oils to ensure raw materials for domestic biodiesel production.