The EUR/USD currency pair fell to 1.0475, while the price of US WTI light crude oil rose to $70.10 per barrel.

Oil prices increased on Thursday as geopolitical concerns stemming from escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine offset the impact of a larger-than-expected rise in US crude oil inventories. Analysts at JPMorgan believe that crude oil consumption recovered over the past week due to increased travel in the U.S. and India. Global demand is expected to have reached 103.6 million barrels per day during the first 19 days of November, up by 1.7 million barrels per day year-on-year. However, the rise in US crude oil inventories, which increased by 545,000 barrels to 430.3 million barrels during the week ending November 15, counteracted the price surge. This exceeded economists' forecasts of a 138,000-barrel increase.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) may once again postpone a decision to increase production during their meeting on December 1, due to weak global demand for crude oil, according to three sources familiar with the cartel's discussions.

Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago fell by 2 3/4 cents to $5.69 1/2 per bushel. While wheat prices decreased in Chicago, they rose in Paris. For the week ending November 14, 2024, U.S. wheat export sales amounted to 549,601 tons (compared to 380,056 tons the previous week and 171,753 tons a year earlier). Total export commitments reached 14.80 million tons (12.06 million a year earlier), weekly exports were 133,914 tons (301,281 and 298,616 tons in previous periods), and season-to-date exports were 9.97 million tons (7.56 million previously). Taiwan purchased 80,000 tons of wheat from the United States. Algeria bought between 160,000 and 350,000 tons of durum wheat of unspecified origin at 360 USD/ton C&F, with delivery scheduled for January–February. Most of this wheat will come from Romania and Bulgaria, with smaller amounts from the Baltic states.

According to forecasts by the Russian Grain Union, Russia's grain exports for July–November will amount to 30 million tons, over 50% of the country's annual export potential. Total grain exports for the 2024/25 season are projected at 56 million tons, leaving 26 million tons for the remainder of the season ending June 30, 2024. Wheat exports are expected to total 45 million tons, with 18.3 million tons left for export by season’s end. In November, wheat exports will reach 4.8 million tons, barley exports are estimated at 265,000 tons, and corn exports at 145,000 tons. Wheat exports from Russia will decline significantly toward the end of the season, alongside a drop in exports from Ukraine. Algeria’s recent purchases have shifted toward Romania and Bulgaria until their export potential is depleted.

Yesterday, Chicago March corn futures decreased by 3 3/4 cents to $4.36 1/4 per bushel. Corn futures decreased in Chicago but remained unchanged in Paris. U.S. weekly corn export sales were 1,494,647 tons (1,315,647 and 1,432,407 tons previously), export commitments were 31.40 million tons (22.53 million a year earlier), weekly exports reached 957,037 tons (698,649 and 623,813 tons previously), and season-to-date exports were 9.33 million tons (7.12 million). Two South Korean companies purchased a total of 136,000 tons of corn yesterday.

Yesterday, CBOT January soybean futures dropped by 12 3/4 cents to $9.77 3/4 per bushel. The soybean complex in Chicago, rapeseed futures in Paris, and canola futures in Canada all declined. Rainfall is expected to continue in Brazil, with some areas facing moisture deficits. However, there are no completely dry areas, and soil moisture has not yet reached optimal levels at depth. The USDA reported a private export sale of 198,000 tons of soybeans to China and 135,000 tons to an unidentified buyer. Additionally, 133,000 tons of soymeal were sold to the Philippines. Weekly U.S. soybean export sales were 1,860,554 tons (1,555,425 and 893,261 tons previously), export commitments were 31.58 million tons (28.99 million a year earlier), weekly exports reached 2,447,847 tons (2,341,413 and 1,592,337 tons), and season-to-date exports were 17.39 million tons (15.51 million). Soymeal sales amounted to 275,629 tons, and soybean oil sales were 21,947 tons. Abiove forecasts Brazil's soybean production for 2024/25 at 167.7 million tons, up 9.4% from 2023/24. The current production record of 160.3 million tons was set in 2022/23. Exports are projected at 104.1 million tons (+5.9%), and processing is forecast at 57 million tons (+4.6%).

Yesterday, the International Grains Council (IGC) released its November report on the global grain balance for 2024/25:

• Grains: Global grain production in 2024/25 is projected at 2,311 million tons (2,315 and 2,308 previously), consumption at 2,332 million tons (2,328 and 2,319), and ending stocks at 576 million tons (584 and 596).
• Wheat: Global wheat production is estimated at 796 million tons (798 and 795), consumption at 805 million tons (804 and 807), and ending stocks at 263 million tons (266 and 272).
• Corn: Global corn production is projected at 1,225 million tons (1,224 and 1,231), consumption at 1,235 million tons (1,231 and 1,226), and ending stocks at 275 million tons (279 and 285).
• Soybeans: Global soybean production in 2024/25 is forecast at 419 million tons (421 and 396), consumption at 408 million tons (406 and 387), and ending stocks at 82 million tons (86 and 71).

Overall, there is a notable decline in ending stocks for all crops. The decline in wheat and corn stocks for the current season is particularly evident. While the market is not yet under sufficient strain to drive significant price increases, any disruptions in major producing regions could trigger such changes. U.S. export sales of wheat, corn, and soybeans have been remarkably strong this season, a trend not seen in some time. Oil prices have begun to decline, immediately impacting rapeseed and canola, and likely halting the upward trend for sunseed oil as well.