The EUR/USD currency pair fell to 1.0546. The price of US WTI light crude oil declined to $68.75 per barrel.

Oil prices saw a slight decrease yesterday. Concerns about an escalation of military actions in Ukraine, which could disrupt oil supplies from Russia, and signs of increasing crude oil imports by China offset data showing a rise in US inventories. However, overall market movements were subdued. On Tuesday, Ukraine reportedly used American ATACMS missiles for the first time to strike Russian territory, according to Moscow. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike. This marks a new escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and brings renewed focus to the risks of supply disruptions in the oil market.

Regarding demand, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 4.75 million barrels during the week ending November 15. This was 100,000 barrels more than analysts had expected.

Yesterday, two major factors clashed in the market: the escalation of the war in Ukraine and the anticipated record corn and soybean productions in South America. For the productions, everything depends on rainfall, which has been excellent so far. There are no signs of even moderate La Niña conditions, and it is unlikely to cause problems for the crops. The escalation of the war in Ukraine is more rhetoric than action. A few additional missiles fired by Ukraine will not significantly change anything. The U.S. controls events through the scale and quality of its arms deliveries, and they currently do not seek any major developments. Both sides might continue exporting wheat according to their stock levels without additional complications. For now, markets remain dull, with no major news to drive them in a particular direction.

Yesterday, March wheat futures in Chicago rose by 4 1/2 cents to $5.72 1/4 per bushel. Wheat futures increased in both Chicago and Paris. For the second day, Ukraine targeted sites in Russia, causing significant damage. In the United States, favorable rainfall in wheat-growing areas was followed by dry days. Temperatures remain mostly positive, allowing winter wheat crops to continue developing. U.S. wheat export sales for the week ending November 14, 2024, are expected to reach 275,000–600,000 tons. Taiwan announced a tender for purchasing 80,000 tons of US wheat, with usual deals being around 50,000 tons. Algeria held a tender for buying 160,000–180,000 tons of durum wheat at prices of 348–360 USD/ton. The new wheat production in the Southern Hemisphere is projected to be 18% higher than last year. Despite limited wheat stocks among major global exporters, strong productions in Argentina and Australia are currently capping price increases.

Yesterday, CBOT March corn futures increased by 2 1/4 cents to $4.40 per bushel. Corn prices declined in Chicago, while in Paris, prices were mixed, with nearby contracts ending in green territory. In the week ending November 15, 2024, U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.11 million barrels per day, down 3,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Ethanol stocks increased by 524,000 barrels to 22.563 million barrels. Ethanol exports remained unchanged at 144,000 barrels per day, while refinery consumption decreased by 17,000 barrels to 892,000 barrels per day. Weekly U.S. corn export sales are expected to range from 1–2.2 million tons for the current crop and 0–100,000 tons for the next crop.

Yesterday, Chicago January soybean futures fell by 8 cents to $9.90 1/2 per bushel. Soybean and soyoil futures declined in Chicago, while soymeal futures rose. Rapeseed futures in Paris and canola futures in Canada also decreased. The USDA reported private export sales of 202,000 tons of soybeans to China and another 226,200 tons to an unknown destination. Weekly U.S. soybean export sales are expected to range from 1–1.6 million tons of the old crop and 0–100,000 tons of the new crop. Soymeal sales are projected at 210,000–490,000 tons, and soyoil sales at 5,000–35,000 tons. In October, China imported 8.09 million tons of soybeans, including 5.53 million tons from Brazil and 541,434 tons from the United States, which is twice as much as last year. From January to October 2024, U.S. soybean imports to China totaled 15.1 million tons (-13% compared to 2023), while imports from Brazil reached 67.8 million tons (+13.6%). Brazil and China signed agreements to open the Chinese market to Brazilian sorghum, fish meal, sesame, and other products.