Grains Market Overview 17.08.2021

Yesterday, CBOT SRW wheat and corn futures prices fell and Chicago soybean futures prices slightly rose. In Paris, wheat and corn futures prices decreased notably and rapeseed prices increased significantly.

The EUR/USD currency pair rose to 1.1775. The price of US WTI crude oil fell to 67.29 USD/barrel.

Oil price fell for the third day in a row given threatened recovery of demand due to the rapid spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus. At the same time, US production data showed an increase in activity in addition to the increased production in the OPEC+ group. In Asia, the new peak of the disease began to weigh on the Chinese economy, slowing sales growth and industrial production. At present, China has to deal with the largest spread of new cases of coronavirus since the initial peak in 2020 and new blockades have been introduced. At the same time, there are signs of accelerating activity in shale plants in the United States. The total number of oil-seeking platforms in the country increased by 10 last week to a total of 379, marking its biggest weekly jump since April, according to data from Baker Hughes Inc. on Friday.

CBOT
Chicago Contract USD/mt +/-
Wheat September 279.44 -0.64
Corn December 223.91 -1.67
Soybeans November 502.75 +1.19
Soymeal December 399.59 +2.31

 

EURONEXT
Paris Contract EUR/mt +/-
Wheat September 252.50 -2.00
Corn June 219.50 -2.25
Rapeseed August 570.00 +7.00

 

Yesterday, CBOT SRW September wheat futures prices fell by 1 3/4 to close at $7.60 1/2 a bushel. The hot weather in the northern United States has allowed for a quick harvesting campaign of spring wheat. As of August 15, 2021, 58% of spring wheat crops in the United States were harvested (38% a week earlier and 36% on average for the last five years). 11% of the spring wheat crops are in good and excellent condition. As of August 12, 2021, the weekly export inspections of wheat from the United States were 440,567 tons (653,969 tons a week earlier and 495,513 tons a year earlier). Since the beginning of the season, total export inspections of wheat reach 4.89 million tons (5.66). SovEcon once again lowered its estimate for the Russian wheat production to 76.2 million tons in August. In the last week, wheat exports from Russia were 1 million tons compared to 1.1 million tons a week earlier. Algeria is now on the market looking to buy milled wheat. The Philippines is looking to buy 280,000 tons of feed wheat with delivery within October-November.

Yesterday, Chicago December corn futures prices decreased by 4 1/4 cents to close at $5.68 3/4 a bushel. The rally on the price of corn after the USDA report on Thursday was met with large sales, which limited the growth of prices. Now prices and sales are falling. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour begins, the results of which will provide guidance for market development. By the end of the week, temperatures below normal and more rainfall are expected in the US Corn Belt. 62% of the corn crops (64% and 69%) are in good and excellent condition in the United States. The weekly export inspections of corn from the United States are at the level of 754,929 tons (744,934 and 1,139,132) and from the beginning of the season they totaled 64.35 million tons (40.58). According to AgRural data, 70% of the crops from the second corn crop have been harvested in Brazil and the forecast shows a result of 51.6 million tons, which is almost 2/3 of the production in 2020. This is the lowest forecast so far, which is well below that of other analysts expecting more than 60 million tons of second corn production. This means that Brazil will export less than 10 million tons of corn for 2021/22. Weaker corn exports from Brazil limit domestic price growth.

Yesterday, Chicago November soybean futures prices rose by 3 1/4 cents to close at $13.68 1/4 a bushel. Since August 5, the USDA has announced export sales of 1.3 million tons of soybeans to China and to an unknown destination. Yesterday, the USDA announced an export sale of soybeans from the new crop of 133 thousand tons to an unknown destination. The expected rainfall in the US Corn Belt will not significantly improve the condition of soybean crops that are in the ripening phase. Weekly export inspections of soybeans from the United States were 277,637 tons (114,718 and 932,541) and since the beginning of the season they add up to a total of 58.66 million tons (41.19). 57% of soybean crops (60% and 72%) are in good and excellent condition in the United States. In July, 4.22 million tons of soybeans were processed in the United States, which is a four-year low for this month. According to the latest forecast of Safras, soybean exports from Brazil in 2021 will reach 90 million tons (86 in the previous estimate). Soybean processing in the country is projected at 48.5 million tons (46.7). Due to strong export demand and high domestic processing, soybean prices in Brazil continue to rise slowly despite the large soybean production. Over the period of August 1 - 15, palm oil exports from Malaysia reached 540,853 tons (684,615 exported over July 1 - 15).