The EUR/USD currency pair decreased to 1.1832. The price of US WTI crude oil rose to 69.09 USD/barrel.

Oil prices have fluctuated given the tensions in the Middle East, failing to offset losses from the previous trading day after surprising information about rising oil stocks in the United States, the world's largest consumer of oil. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude oil stocks in the United States rose unexpectedly by 3.6 million barrels last week.

Yesterday, CBOT SRW September wheat futures prices fell by 4 1/2 cents to close at $7.12 3/4 a bushel. Wheat prices experienced a slight rise yesterday given the low forecasts for productions in Russia (drought) and Western Europe (rainfall) but fell at the end of the session. In some places in the US Wheat Belt, it is dry and there are no good conditions for the sowing campaign of winter wheat. In the week ended July 29, 2021, the export sales of wheat from the United States were 308,275 tons (515,168 tons a week earlier and 605,472 tons a year earlier). Export commitments for wheat reached 8.41 million tons (10.12 million tons a year earlier). In June, 2 million tons of wheat were exported from the United States (2.28 million tons in June 2020). Turkey bought 245,000 tons of wheat at a price of 297.40-308.9 USD/ton C&F. Japan bought 92,285 tons of wheat, South Korea and Jordan are looking to buy 135,000 tons and 120,000 tons of wheat, respectively. Over the period of July 1 - 29, wheat exports from Russia were only 1.7 million tons (-34% compared to the previous year). The wheat production in France will be 36.69 million tons (-0.4 million tons) and wheat production in Germany is projected at 21 million tons (22.82). For now, the downward trend in wheat yields in Europe continues.

Yesterday, Chicago December corn futures prices rose by 6 1/4 cents to close at $5.53 a bushel. Weekly export inspections helped push prices up yesterday. The dry weather in South America is creating logistical problems for Argentina. It rained in parts of Iowa yesterday. Rainfall is expected in Dakota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota in the coming days. However, the forecasts have many variations and variables. HIS Markit forecasts an average corn yield in the United States of 176.5 bushels/acre and a corn production of 378.8 million tons. This level of the corn production will reduce market tensions, especially if China remains a quiet buyer during the season. The weekly export sales of corn from the United States were 68,215 tons of old crop (-115,231 and 101,596) and the export commitments totaled 69.72 million tons (43.78). Sales of corn from the new crop were 830,164 tons (529,256 and 2,599,503) and since the beginning of the season they add up to a total of 17.49 million tons (10.93). In June, 6.338 million tons of corn were exported from the United States, which is the second highest result for this month of the year in history. In June, exports of DDGS were 939,177 tons (+12% on an annual basis) and ethanol exports reached 81.89 million gallons.

Yesterday, CBOT November soybean futures prices increased by 2 3/4 cents to close at $13.28 1/2 a bushel. There are rumors that China may buy several cargo of soybeans from the United States. HIS Markit forecasts an average soybean yield in the United States of 51.5 bushels/acre and the soybean production is estimated at 121.4 million tons. Weekly export sales of soybeans from the United States were 11,381 tons (-79,267 and 345,199) and export commitments reached 61.92 million tons (46.94). Weekly sales of soybeans from the new crop were 424,830 tons (312,754 and 1,404,961) and since the beginning of the season they add up to 10.60 million tons (15.14). The USDA announced a private export sale of 300,000 tons of soybean from the new crop to an unknown destination. In June, 925,498 tons of soybeans, 832,167 tons of soymeal and 41,550 tons of soyoil were exported from the United States. The soybean index was the lowest in the last 7 years. Canada's rapeseed problems will boost demand for US soyoil. In August, most soybean processors in the United States will rest due to lack of raw materials. Rainfall in the US Corn Belt helps soybeans and we are likely to see higher yield forecasts. Argentine farmers sold 26.3 million tons of soybeans, which is 7.7% less than last year. In July, Malaysia's palm oil stocks rose to 1.62 million tons (1.61 million tons in June). This is happening against the background of declining production and exports.

In the absence of other important news, the market is preparing for the August report of the USDA on 12.08.2021. Despite the unstable rainfall in the United States, the production there will be good and this can be seen with each passing day. We expected a shortage of moisture, but it often rains, although not quite enough, and temperatures just exceeded 30 degrees. For this reason, the USDA is not likely to significantly reduce its forecast for corn production in the United States. Weak exports of corn from Brazil will create problems. For now, wheat is on the scales given the decline in yields. The only major unknown is the wheat production in Canada, which could change the trend for the entire season.