Core Market Drivers

Wheat staged a notable rebound on Wednesday after Tuesday’s sharp selloff. Chicago SRW futures closed 9 to 10 cents higher, while KC HRW contracts gained 11 to 12 1/4 cents, reflecting technical recovery and renewed risk premiums tied to Ukraine and Russia. Mar ’26 CBOT wheat settled at $5.47, up 9 1/4 cents.

Russian supply projections remained a counterweight. SovEcon raised its 2026/27 wheat crop forecast to 85.9 MMT, citing favorable crop conditions and strong snow cover, while the Transport Ministry confirmed a 21 MMT increase in seaport capacity for 2026. These developments reinforce Russia’s export competitiveness and limit sustained upside potential for global prices.

However, Ukraine introduced fresh weather uncertainty. A cold snap followed by thaw and refreeze conditions created ice crusting across winter wheat and rapeseed areas, potentially damaging yield prospects. With winter wheat representing roughly 95% of Ukraine’s production, markets will closely monitor March–May weather for confirmation of crop stress.

Ahead of Thursday’s USDA Ag Outlook Forum, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect U.S. wheat acreage at 44.7 million acres, down approximately 600,000 acres from last year, with production seen at 1.872 bbu, down 113 mbu year-on-year. These expectations provided underlying support as traders positioned for potentially tighter U.S. supply.

Corn futures managed to close fractionally to 1 cent higher, with Mar ’26 CBOT corn ending at $4.27, up 3/4 cent. Market attention remains focused on the Ag Outlook Forum, where analysts anticipate U.S. corn acreage at 95 million acres, down 3.8 million acres from last year, with production estimated at 15.936 bbu.

Weekly USDA inspections showed 1.492 MMT of corn shipped, below the previous week but maintaining strong year-to-date performance. Meanwhile, ANEC projects Brazilian February corn exports at 1.12 MMT, slightly above last week’s estimate, underscoring active global trade despite South American production strength.

Soybeans closed fractionally mixed, with Mar ’26 settling at $11.33 1/2, down 1/2 cent. Early gains failed to hold despite record January NOPA crush of 221.564 mbu, which exceeded expectations and marked the highest January total on record. Expanding U.S. crush capacity continues to support domestic demand.

Soybean oil futures rose 107 to 132 points on expectations that the EPA will submit 2026 biofuel blending quotas to the White House this week. Proposed biomass-based diesel targets between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons could materially influence soybean oil demand, although soyoil stocks rose to 1.900 billion pounds, up 49.1% year-over-year, tempering enthusiasm.

South American weather remains a defining macro factor. Forecasts call for a cool and dry March across Argentina and southern Brazil, supportive for harvest but potentially limiting moisture reserves. In the U.S., warm and wet conditions may benefit winter wheat heading into dormancy exit, aside from a brief regional cold spell.

Export dynamics added complexity. Port of Los Angeles soybean exports to China reportedly declined sharply, reflecting broader trade tensions and tariff impacts. While first-quarter port volume is projected to decline less than 10%, ongoing export softness to China remains a demand risk for U.S. soybeans.

Crop Futures Wrap

Wheat:
Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.47, up 9 1/4 cents. Gains reflected technical recovery, Ukraine weather concerns and positioning ahead of lower expected U.S. acreage, despite improved Russian supply forecasts.

Corn:
Mar ’26 CBOT corn settled at $4.27, up 3/4 cent. Support came from expectations of reduced U.S. planting area and steady export flows, counterbalanced by strong Brazilian supply prospects.

Soybeans:
Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $11.33 1/2, down 1/2 cent. Record NOPA crush and stronger soybean oil futures offset rising oil stocks and mixed export signals, keeping trade narrowly balanced into Thursday’s acreage data.