What mattered Tuesday: Markets weighed firm U.S. export inspections, strong domestic biofuel and crush demand, and ongoing South American weather risks against a stronger dollar, mixed fund positioning, and uneven signals from global wheat supply and demand.

Export inspections were a central support across the grain complex. USDA data showed 1.136 MMT of corn, 1.311 MMT of soybeans, and 327,000 MT of wheat inspected for export in the week ending January 29. Corn and soybean inspections remained well above year-ago levels, while wheat shipments, though lower week on week, continued to run materially stronger than last year, reinforcing underlying demand.

Wheat fundamentals were mixed on Tuesday. The NASS Flour Milling report showed 227.58 million bushels of wheat ground for flour from October through December, down 3.2 million bushels from the same period in 2024, pointing to softer domestic usage. At the same time, EU wheat exports reached 12.82 MMT from July 1 to February 1, now matching last year, signaling steady but unspectacular demand from Europe.

Weather remained a secondary influence for wheat. NOAA’s 7-day outlook called for light precipitation across much of the Plains, with heavier totals limited to parts of central Texas. Crop condition updates showed Kansas winter wheat rated 61% good-to-excellent, up one point on the week, while Oklahoma fell sharply to 23%, highlighting uneven winter wheat prospects.

Corn was supported by exceptionally strong biofuel demand. USDA’s Grain Crushings report confirmed December corn used for ethanol at a record 488.26 million bushels, 5.1% above November and higher year over year. Total corn used for ethanol in the marketing year reached 1.863 billion bushels, helping offset expectations for a short-term dip in ethanol output ahead of Wednesday’s EIA report.

International demand signals also underpinned corn sentiment. A South Korean importer purchased 134,000 MT of corn in an overnight tender, reinforcing steady global buying interest. In addition, reports that China is preparing to import Brazilian distillers grains (DDG) highlighted growing international feed demand linked to expanding ethanol production in South America.

Soybeans drew support from strong crush demand and shifting biofuel policy signals. USDA’s Fats & Oils report showed December soybean crush at 229.84 million bushels, up 4.24% from November and 5.59% year over year, with marketing-year crush up 7.43% versus last season. Treasury guidance on the 45Z tax credit added a premium to soy oil, helping offset weaker soymeal prices.

South American production and weather remained a two-sided influence for oilseeds and feed grains. AgRural reported Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean harvest at 10% complete and second-crop corn planting at 12% in the Center-South, both ahead of last year. StoneX and Celeres raised Brazil’s soybean production forecasts to around 181.3–181.6 MMT, while ongoing flood risks in southeast Brazil and continued dryness in parts of Argentina kept weather risk embedded in market sentiment.

Vegetable oil markets added cross-commodity pressure and support. India’s January palm oil imports surged 51% month on month to 766,000 MT, cutting soyoil imports to a 19-month low and pressuring U.S. soyoil competitiveness. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s January palm oil exports rose 14.89% to 1.376 MMT, reinforcing volatility across the global veg-oil complex.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.28 3/4/bu, up 1 cent. Gains were modest as steady export inspections and firm winter wheat conditions in Kansas offset weaker domestic milling demand and mixed signals from global supply.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn settled at $4.28 1/2/bu, up 2 3/4 cents. Prices were supported by record December ethanol usage, strong cumulative export inspections, and confirmation of new international buying interest.

Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans finished at $10.65 3/4/bu, up 5 1/2 cents. Strength was driven by robust domestic crush demand, supportive biofuel policy signals, and ongoing weather uncertainty in South America.